Draft Scenario #4

[Draft Crazy]

Yeah, I guess I'm more referencing the vast array of opinions on which of these top 4 QB's is the best, coupled with how many options the Broncos have this year. Given all of that, it's just a little mind-blowing in how hard it is to predict which direction the Broncos will go. Seems like in years past, the top QB's were clearly pegged by the NFL community and it was easier to predict the top few picks. Maybe I just haven't been paying close enough attention. After all, my internet name isn't Draft Crazy.

I think anytime you have this many QB's at the top of the draft the rumors are really gonna fly.

 

[cdumler7]

Yeah, I guess I'm more referencing the vast array of opinions on which of these top 4 QB's is the best, coupled with how many options the Broncos have this year. Given all of that, it's just a little mind-blowing in how hard it is to predict which direction the Broncos will go. Seems like in years past, the top QB's were clearly pegged by the NFL community and it was easier to predict the top few picks. Maybe I just haven't been paying close enough attention. After all, my internet name isn't Draft Crazy.

I can't remember the last draft though that had 4 guys that could potentially be top-5 picks. Usually you only have maybe 2 QB's that fall into that category so you know those guys are going 1-2 in the draft. The fact that there are 4 guys that teams could really like makes the start of this draft that much more complicated.

 

[cdumler7]

I think anytime you have this many QB's at the top of the draft the rumors are really gonna fly.

Haha so I should have skipped to the 2nd page of this topic. I saw there was one more message and didn't click over. Otherwise might have saved myself some time typing all of that out.

 

[Draft Crazy]

Haha so I should have skipped to the 2nd page of this topic. I saw there was one more message and didn't click over. Otherwise might have saved myself some time typing all of that out.

Hey at least your backed up my thought

 

[MileHigh64]

It's a good thing that two "rights" don't make a "wrong".

 

[SpringStein]

I can't remember the last draft though that had 4 guys that could potentially be top-5 picks. Usually you only have maybe 2 QB's that fall into that category so you know those guys are going 1-2 in the draft. The fact that there are 4 guys that teams could really like makes the start of this draft that much more complicated.

Has there ever been a draft where the first three picks were QBs? Could this year be 4 QBs in first 4 selections?

(Obviously that assumes Browns trading out of #4)

 

[femurov]

2016 draft says hello.

I think most of that action occurred before the draft, though. We went in to draft night that year pretty much knowing it would be Goff at 1 and Wentz at 2. The drama at that draft unfolded about 15 minutes before the Rams went on the clock and they released that picture of Laremy Tunsil with the gas mask bong. He was rumored to go at #3 to San Diego before all that mess.

 

[femurov]

Has there ever been a draft where the first three picks were QBs? Could this year be 4 QBs in first 4 selections?

(Obviously that assumes Browns trading out of #4)

It has happened a couple times. The last one I remember is 99. Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, and Akili Smith.

 

[cdumler7]

Has there ever been a draft where the first three picks were QBs? Could this year be 4 QBs in first 4 selections?

(Obviously that assumes Browns trading out of #4)

Back in 1999 there were 3 QB's that went top-3. Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, and Akili Smith. It is obviously very rare. I think teams are willing to reach on QB a bit more now in the fact that rookie contracts make QB's as cheap as can be. So even an above average or average QB pays off at that point and allows a team to add talent around them.

When we start looking at numbers QB and Pass rusher are where it really pays off early in the draft. RB's in the top-5 are ending up being paid as top-5 RB's in the NFL. Guards would fall into a similar category. So there is quite a bit of risk of having to pay those players above value if they do not turn out to be Pro Bowl or better type players.

 

[cdumler7]

Just looking through past drafts right now. 1971 also saw 3 QB's go top-3 in Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning, and Dan Pastorini.

 

[Draft Crazy]

It's sorta funny to think as good of a QB at the top as this years draft is for about a months time it looked like a QB may not go #1.. Now it looks pretty set in stone one will.

 

[cdumler7]

It's sorta funny to think as good of a QB at the top as this years draft is for about a months time it looked like a QB may not go #1.. Now it looks pretty set in stone one will.

QB's always rise to the top. Usually teams in the top-10 are there because they don't have the QB answer. So they definitely get overdrafted. If I was setting up my big board right now QB would not be at the top of that list. Value wise though causes them to rise up big time.

 

[Draft Crazy]

QB's always rise to the top. Usually teams in the top-10 are there because they don't have the QB answer. So they definitely get overdrafted. If I was setting up my big board right now QB would not be at the top of that list. Value wise though causes them to rise up big time.

Right

 

[CEH]

1999 has some great players
A great RB a great CB a great QB a really good LT
And a couple QB busts

 

[cdumler7]

I'm of the notion that especially with QB's they have to land in the right situation to have success. Very few could go anywhere with any organization/coaching staff and still find success. Manning, Luck, and Wilson are about the only ones that recently come to mind that would fall into that category.

This is part of the reason I like Rosen and Mayfield over Darnold in I think those two could overcome a coaching change and still do well. There are no guarantees that Joseph is the coach beyond this year so we need guys that can be versatile.

 

[SpringStein]

Back in 1999 there were 3 QB's that went top-3. Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, and Akili Smith. It is obviously very rare. I think teams are willing to reach on QB a bit more now in the fact that rookie contracts make QB's as cheap as can be. So even an above average or average QB pays off at that point and allows a team to add talent around them.

When we start looking at numbers QB and Pass rusher are where it really pays off early in the draft. RB's in the top-5 are ending up being paid as top-5 RB's in the NFL. Guards would fall into a similar category. So there is quite a bit of risk of having to pay those players above value if they do not turn out to be Pro Bowl or better type players.

Thanks for the history lesson. In that case, it was good to forget it as only 1 of 3 turned out to be worthwhile.

 

[Mingo]

Thanks for the history lesson. In that case, it was good to forget it as only 1 of 3 turned out to be worthwhile.

That's certainly the trouble with college shot first round QB picks - the 1st round failure rate of QB's has to be as large as the other positions put together.

I agree with what Carl said here or in another thread - that - when a particular personality and talent level lands with the coaching and scheme he needs - you might have success there - and not elsewhere. Bigger than that - I think is the combination of having a QB who can process the defense fast and make split second decisions at a very good rate. You often don't find that out about QBs in college.

 

[fightinredantz]

Bigger than that - I think is the combination of having a QB who can process the defense fast and make split second decisions at a very good rate. You often don't find that out about QBs in college.

Exactly. The NFL game is more mental then physical for the QB. The QB has to have some physical ability, but give me a guy with the all the physcall tools. Look at Brady and Manning. They are not the most most physically gifted guys to play in the NFL but they are among the best ever to play.

 

[Draft Crazy]

That sort of goes for any position. But yeah especially QB.

You look at highly recruited college players who don't pan out 9.5 times out of 10 they don't have it mentally. The other .5 is injury.