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Draft Review: 2007

calsnowskier

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With the draft last week, I have been thinking about past drafts. In particular, the BIG ONE, 2007. I thought I would take a look at the Giants drafts from 2007 through 2011 so we have a historic view of how the team did.

Let's start with 2007.

2007 San Francisco Giants Picks in the MLB June Amateur Draft | Baseball-Reference.com

This far out, I will consider any player who did not make it to the show a failure. I will touch on a few noteworthy picks though...

Significant non-Giants drafted...

1st Round
David Price (1-1)
Matt Wieters (1-5)
Jayson Heyward (1-14)
Rick Porcello (1-27)
Todd Frazier (1-34)
Josh Donaldson (1-48)
Jordan Zimmermann (2-67)
Giancarlo Stanton (2-76)
Freddie Freeman (2-78)
Zach Cozart (2-79)
Jonathan Lucroy (3-101)
Matt Harvey (3-118 DNS)
Corey Kluber (4-134)
Jake Arrieta (5-159)
Anthony Rizzo (6-204)
Greg Holland (10-306)
Brandon Belt (11-348 DNS)
Chris Sale (21-642 DNS)
Craig Kimbrel (33-1006)

Giants Picks

1-10 Madison Bumgarner MLB Debut 9/8/2009

2014 NLCS MVP
2014 World Series MVP
3-time NL All-star
3-time top 10 in CY voting
2-time Silver Slugger

He is the current Ace of the Giants staff and in the discussion as one of the elite pitchers in the game. He directly contributed to all 3 championships and almost singlehandedly won the 2014 Series. If every other Giants pick never made it to the Bigs, Bum alone makes this a successful draft!

1-22 Tim Alderson (never made it to the Majors)

Freddie Sanchez. Alderson was a bust. No two ways about that. So when discussing the draft alone, the Giants get an F for this pick. But they were able to flip him before he busted and got an all-star caliber 2B for the stretch drive in 2010.

1-32 Nick Noonan MLB Debut 4/3/2013

Noonan is a AAAA journeyman at this point, Currently in AAA for the Padres.

1-43 Jackson Williams MLB Debut 8/27/2014

Jackson is a glove-first AAA catcher jumping back and forth between the Giants organization and the Rockies organization. He will likely be a coach after his playing days.

1-51 Charlie Culberson MLB Debut 5/13/2012

Marco Scutaro. See Alderson, Tim (only not really a bust). Culberson is a middling utility player. He brought back Scutaro in a trade in 2012 which lead to World Series #2, so the org was able to get max equity from the pick, but the pick itself was not good for a 1st rounder.

9-284 Dan Runzler MLB Debut 9/4/2009

He last pitched in the MLB since 2012, and is currently in the Twins organization. He had a lot of promise early, but he completely lost his control and never came back.

10-314 Joe Paterson MLB Debut 4/2/2011

The Giants lost him in the 2011 Rule V draft to Arizona. He had a very nice season for the snakes in 2011, but then got put on the AAA/MLB shuttle and never amounted to anything after that. He is currently out of baseball.

16-494 Steve Edlefson MLB Debut 8/21/2011

Was a big prospect for the Giants along with Runzler in '09-'11. He had a very short stay with the big club in '11 and '12, but ended up getting released after the 2013 season and retired in 2014.

21-644 Dan Otero MLB Debut 4/7/2012

Otero was lost after the 2012 season due to a roster crunch. He immediately caught on with the A's and despite a rough 2015, has had a rather solid career since. He is currently in the Indians bully.

30-914 Johnny Monell MLB Debut 9/5/2013

A bat-first catcher, Monell never really had a chance in the Giants organization with Posey and Sanchez in front of him. He is currently in the Mets system.

Non-signed picks who later made it to the Bigs...

34-1031 Tyler Ladendorf
36-1089 Paul Clemens
47-1378 Ryan Verdugo (drafted by the Giants in the 9th round in 2008 and later sent to KC in the Melky trade)


As for the draft itself, it begins and ends with Bum. Otero, Noonan and Culberson are usable pieces, but no one else taken by the Giants is worth a shit. Good thing the ONE player the yhit on is an all-time player. Also, two trades involving players from this class led to championships, so looking at the draft in context makes it look better still.

It is hard to rate this draft that. It was not a normal draft for the Giants. They has SIX first round picks, after all. And they essentially whiffed on five of them. That is a bad record. But how could you possible ask for more production when the org turned into a dynasty just 3 years later?

In a vacuum, I think I would need to grade this draft a B/B+ due to all the missed picks. When viewed in context, it HAS to be given an A/A+, though.
 
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LHG

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Great summary cal. The 2007 draft, especially all the first round picks, could be best summarized as "go big or go home." Kind of funny to think that the 2nd best pick (in terms of a big league career) was the guy chosen in the 21st round.

Edit: You did miss one of the 1st round picks - Wendell Fairley. The guy never made it past AA and sat for three seasons before playing in independent ball last year.
 

calsnowskier

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Great summary cal. The 2007 draft, especially all the first round picks, could be best summarized as "go big or go home." Kind of funny to think that the 2nd best pick (in terms of a big league career) was the guy chosen in the 21st round.

Edit: You did miss one of the 1st round picks - Wendell Fairley. The guy never made it past AA and sat for three seasons before playing in independent ball last year.
I only listed guys who either made the bigs or had some bearing on the big club (Alderson). I intentionally omitted Fairley.
 

LHG

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I only listed guys who either made the bigs or had some bearing on the big club (Alderson). I intentionally omitted Fairley.
Got it. I thought you were trying to list all the 1st round pick and then the names of note in the other rounds.
 

calsnowskier

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I thought I would add an extra flavor to this...

BA's top 10 prospects for 2007...

1) Daisuke Matsusaka - Good for a couple years, but was never an extended super-stud
2) Alex Gordon - Solid near-All-star caliber player
3) Delmon Young - Out of baseball?
4) Phil Hughes - Was he listed ONLY because he was with the Yankees?
5) Homer Bailey - He owns the Giants, but not much past that.
6) Cameron Maybin - Never really caught up to his potential
7) Evan Longoria - One of the best 3B in the game for a while
8) Brandon Wood - Never more than a AAAA player
9) Justin Upton - Legit star
10) Andrew Miller - Stud bully arm, but is that what you look for from a top-10 prospect?

Giants / Future Giants

11) Tim Lincecum
38) Hunter Pence
59) Jonathan Sanchez
80) Jeff Samardzija

Other Notables...

13) Andrew McCutchen
15) Troy Tulowitzki
24) Clayton Kershaw (!!)
26) Ryan Braun
33) Jacoby Ellsbury
43) Joey Votto


From the players listed on their top 100 that year, I think the top 5, re-ranked, would have to be...

1) Kershaw (24)
2) McCutchen (13)
3) Lincecum (11)
4) Votto (43)
5) Braun (26)

Not a single of their top 10 would crack the top 5 today. A legit argument could be made for Upton or Longoria, though, as the #5.
 

calsnowskier

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I decided to revisit this draft with a broader view...

Coming into today, based on MLB WAR (from BBRef)...

1) Braves (59.8)

Jason Hayward (34.1)
Freddie Freeman (24.7)
Cory Gearrin (0.9)
Brandon Hicks (0.1)

2) Cubs (47.4)

Josh Donaldson (33.9)
Darwin Barney (9.0)
Brandon Guyer (5.4)
James Russell (0.4)
Josh Vitters (-1.3)

3) Rays (44.0)

David Price (32.1)
Stephen Vogt (6.2)
Matt Moore (5.7)

4) Royals (38.2)

Danny Duffy (12.0)
Greg Holland (11.5)
Mike Moustakas (10.8)
David Lough (4.2)
Clint Robinson (-0.3)

5) Reds (37.5)

Todd Frazier (19.4)
Zack Cozart (14.5)
Devin Mesoraco (4.2)
Jeremy Horst (0.7)
Curtis Partch (-0.3)
Scott Caroll (-0.4)
Neftali Soto (-0.6)

9) Giants (32.0)

Madison Bumgarner (30.3)
Dan Otero (4.9)
Dan Runzler (0.3)
Jackson Williams (0.1)
Johnny Monell (-0.2)
Joe Paterson (-0.4)
Steve Edlefsen (-0.6)
Charlie Culbertson (-1.1)
Nick Noonan (-1.3)

25) Dodgers (0.9)

Chris Withrow (1.5)
Andrew Lambo (-0.6)
 
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