Demarco Murray

[Brees#1]

Last year I got Murray for a nice value in the fifth round. He was supposed to be my number three back but Rawls ended up getting hurt and getting involved in a chaotic timeshare with Michael. However, Demarco down the stretch slowed down and Derrick Henry appeared to look like the better back. This is one thing I hate is when a player who was among the top two backs in the first half ends up not even being top five in the second half. And because of that I hate his ADP. Somehow, someway Henry's gonna get his shot. I can only think of one solution for that to happen:Murray falls off or gets hurt. He was playing through a lingering foot injury after the Jacksonville game, but he was still active all the games. The point being is he had people thinking Henry was better in DFS circles because Henry was taking carries away late in the season, especially against Chicago and KC.

Which leads me to my next point. Against a team that can easily be beaten with ball control, Tennessee is likely to use Henry over DMurray to "preserve" him for bigger games. That is not worth a second round ADP either.

In recent years, second round backs have proven to be fantasy busts: Charles, Lacy (2016), Anderson, DMurray with eagles, Ingram(slowed down down the stretch and then got hurt)(2015), Stacy, Bernard(2014). They are drafted to be "number 2" rushers but number 2 totals in rushing is easily outdone by RBs that emerge from later rounds or FA. That calls for staying away.

Murray is a risk plain and simple.

 

[SteelersPride]

ok? im not getting the point here

 

[TREFF]

Last year I got Murray for a nice value in the fifth round. He was supposed to be my number three back but Rawls ended up getting hurt and getting involved in a chaotic timeshare with Michael. However, Demarco down the stretch slowed down and Derrick Henry appeared to look like the better back. This is one thing I hate is when a player who was among the top two backs in the first half ends up not even being top five in the second half. And because of that I hate his ADP. Somehow, someway Henry's gonna get his shot. I can only think of one solution for that to happen:Murray falls off or gets hurt. He was playing through a lingering foot injury after the Jacksonville game, but he was still active all the games. The point being is he had people thinking Henry was better in DFS circles because Henry was taking carries away late in the season, especially against Chicago and KC.

Which leads me to my next point. Against a team that can easily be beaten with ball control, Tennessee is likely to use Henry over DMurray to "preserve" him for bigger games. That is not worth a second round ADP either.

In recent years, second round backs have proven to be fantasy busts: Charles, Lacy (2016), Anderson, DMurray with eagles, Ingram(slowed down down the stretch and then got hurt)(2015), Stacy, Bernard(2014). They are drafted to be "number 2" rushers but number 2 totals in rushing is easily outdone by RBs that emerge from later rounds or FA. That calls for staying away.

Murray is a risk plain and simple.

I finally found a photo of Brees doing his research. .. notice the absence of anything to do with football

 

[Brees#1]

First Point is.............DeMarco will get the load against competitive teams but when it comes to a easy team, they will let Henry get looks(like Chicago). Also, Henry vultured TDs three of the last four games late last year which will screw owners as unlike receivers RBs need both TDs and yards

Second point is the history of second round backs.

Third point is Murray's ADP being too high for someone who could get vultured especially down the stretch.

I want Henry bad, but I will have to have two or three other backs drafted before him. And I am really feeling that this season could be another 2015 one for RBs.

 

[SteelersPride]

First Point is.............DeMarco will get the load against competitive teams but when it comes to a easy team, they will let Henry get looks(like Chicago). Also, Henry vultured TDs three of the last four games late last year which will screw owners as unlike receivers RBs need both TDs and yards

Second point is the history of second round backs.

Third point is Murray's ADP being too high for someone who could get vultured especially down the stretch.

I want Henry bad, but I will have to have two or three other backs drafted before him. And I am really feeling that this season could be another 2015 one for RBs.

k

 

[averagejoe]

Interesting perspective.
Not many coaches will sit a productive RB like Murray because of the matchup.

Spoiler

Incidentally, DeMarco vs the Bears in 2016 was 17 attempts for 43 yards. DeMarco against the Packers was the same 17 attempts with 123 yards and 1 TD.

I believe the new rule of thumb in the NFL is that if you have a guy like DeMarco (age 29), you ride him until he can't go anymore. Especially since the shelf life of RB is short.

I do see Henry eventually getting more touches. But it has more to do with DeMarco declining to be effective than the matchup.

 

[Stomp]

Murrays currently RB7 and 10th overall on my big board i like the fact that he has a strong handcuff in Henry

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

My fantasy brethren have underestimated DeMarco the past couple of years and I have capitalized. Maybe he has another year or two of over performing in him?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

My fantasy brethren have underestimated DeMarco the past couple of years and I have capitalized. Maybe he has another year or two of over performing in him?

It true, he gets no respect, been great for those who have taken advantage of that.

 

[Brees#1]

Interesting perspective.
Not many coaches will sit a productive RB like Murray because of the matchup.

Spoiler

Incidentally, DeMarco vs the Bears in 2016 was 17 attempts for 43 yards. DeMarco against the Packers was the same 17 attempts with 123 yards and 1 TD.

I believe the new rule of thumb in the NFL is that if you have a guy like DeMarco (age 29), you ride him until he can't go anymore. Especially since the shelf life of RB is short.

I do see Henry eventually getting more touches. But it has more to do with DeMarco declining to be effective than the matchup.

That is because he had a big run gash at the beginning of that game.(GB) But he had 17 carries in a game the titans had to run the ball more in against Chicago. The packers encouraged shootouts.

 

[Brees#1]

My fantasy brethren have underestimated DeMarco the past couple of years and I have capitalized. Maybe he has another year or two of over performing in him?

His ADP isn't taking advantage this year. The top four RBs and if they don't screw up Howard in Chicago and Freeman can have three TD games. That's not happening with Murray.

 

[TREFF]

Still convinced Brees had never watched a full game, just highlight reels and box scores, zero understanding of how or why things happened the way they did

 

[SteelersPride]

anyone can have a three td game, they arent common for ANYONE

 

[SteelersPride]

17x3=51

if they were common 51 td is possible heck lets evne half that 8, 3 td games

30+td's would be common ground assuming they had 8 td's in three games, and a few other td,s.

my analysis, and well just my brain doesnt comprehend a lick of this

 

[Barilko]

anyone can have a three td game, they arent common for ANYONE

Hell I once scored 3 and I'm a hockey guy

 

[eaglesnut]

Murray's probably due for a year of injuries. Henry would run well for them in that case.

 

[averagejoe]

That is because he had a big run gash at the beginning of that game.(GB) But he had 17 carries in a game the titans had to run the ball more in against Chicago. The packers encouraged shootouts.

Disagree.
Sometimes the games dictate what happens.
Tennessee was clobbering the Packers in that game. They were up 21-0 in the first quarter. Running the ball kills the clock and takes the ball away from Aaron Rodgers.
The game against the Bears still favored the Titans, and I'm sure the Titans were not intimidated by Matt Barkley, even if the score looked closer than it was.

I still believe a coaching staff will ride the veteran until he can't go anymore.

 

[SteelersPride]

Hell I once scored 3 and I'm a hockey guy

me too1!

 

[Brees#1]

Still convinced Brees had never watched a full game, just highlight reels and box scores, zero understanding of how or why things happened the way they did

What did you see with Murray that I didn't in December?

 

[TREFF]

What did you see with Murray that I didn't in December?

The comment you quoted has little to do with Murray specifically, and more to do with the absurdity behind the majority of your opinions. The way guy reach for meaningless numbers without ever considering how or why those numbers ended up happening. No consideration for situational football, why team X does what they do and not something different, just numbers that without any context are meaningless, and as Joe pointed out, often times are flat out incorrect.
You're the type of guy that will see the box score of Jonas Grey and think he's a good RB, but if you watch more than just the highlights, (or even pay cliffs attention to the defense, not the ball in those highlights ) you can easily see that he's pretty damned awful, and was the benefactor of terrible defensive play in that one game.

That's what I'm referring to, tying to reasonably predict anything is a crapshoot for all of us, but there's a lot more to getting a realistic prediction than numbers, you've got to understand the game, and all of your reasoning shows little to no understanding.

Not trying to be a dick, but that's what I, and many others see when we read your stuff, just being honest