Both Rosen and Darnold Declare For Draft

[skinsdad62]

of course the defense also gets a pass on closing as well

 

[Sleepy T]

what is a fair contract ? highest paid player ? the stafford/carr deals are long since in the rear view

again without KC this season we are a 2-3 win team with colt lining up at QB

he has proven he can lead this offense he basically carried it all year long , and he threw for over 4000 yds 23 tds and 13 picks with one of the worst wr corps in the NFL so garcon and jackson didnt make him as the argument went

injuries killed this team and a relatively healthy team gets 10 wins with the good talent they had working on defense making it at least a middle of the pack defense . instead we were 21 .

Yeah. Go ahead and give him a $30 million contract. Make him the richest one in history. That’s what it will take correct?

Maybe if we catch lightning in a bottle and the stars align at some point over the next 4-5 years we might be able to make a serious run at the SB?

As far as Colt goes...I think he is better than a couple wins. He isn’t quite Kirk but he is serviceable enough and the coach would be fine with rolling with him for awhile.

 

[Stymietee]

He has led the team to a game winning drive in 25% of his games.

I honestly wish that we get away from using stats other than wins and losses as some sort of marker or evidence towards something in football. For instance:

You wrote: "He has led the team to a game winning drive in 25% of his games."

Which is true, but if people want to use that metric the question becomes 25% of what?

Kirk's record as a starter is 26-31-1 (An overall .457 winning percentage). Using the wins only metric, that translates into 25% of 26 games or 6.5 games in which he's done that out of the 58 games that he's started.

To eliminate the defense or other factors, as you did, out of the 26 games that the team has won during his time as starter he's been QB of 6.5 games that they won with a game winning drive. (your selective 25%)

Now, if I wanted to use your metric "25% of his games, that translates into, 6.5 (game winning drives) of 58 (his games as starter). By percentage that translates into 0.112 percent of the time that there will be a game winning drive with Kirk as QB.

I'm going to cap and underline the following for emphasis:

POINT IS....WE CAN DO THIS ALL DAY LONG, SEVEN DAYS A WEEK AND TWICE ON SUNDAYS AND IT PROVES ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!! Just sounds good to receptive ears.

 

[skinsdad62]

Yeah. Go ahead and give him a $30 million contract. Make him the richest one in history. That’s what it will take correct?

Maybe if we catch lightning in a bottle and the stars align at some point over the next 4-5 years we might be able to make a serious run at the SB?

As far as Colt goes...I think he is better than a couple wins. He isn’t quite Kirk but he is serviceable enough and the coach would be fine with rolling with him for awhile.

what is a fair contract ? and colt isnt , not even close

 

[skinsdad62]

As you watch the NFL playoffs this weekend, feel free to scream as you realize again what you already feared last weekend: Except for Tom Brady, there isn’t a quarterback in the postseason who is significantly better than Kirk Cousins.

As I will show statistically later in this column, in the whole NFL only Aaron Rodgers joins Brady as entirely out of Cousins’s class. Over the past three years, Cousins has proved that he is in a clump of a half-dozen excellent QBs — eyelash close in total productivity — who compose the next-highest quarterback rank.

But as this weekend will underline, most of them have produced their numbers with gifted supporting casts of which Cousins only can dream in D.C. All the Kirk-comparable QBs on view in the next two days, such as Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger, have surrounding casts so electric that you wonder, “What would Kirk do if he could throw to Julio Jones or Antonio Brown, not Jamison Crowder, or simply hand it to Le’Veon Bell or Mark Ingram, not Samaje Perine?”

The Washington passer, who’s likely to leave D.C. in the coming months, could hardly have a better advertisement for himself than last week’s 10-3 Jaguars win over Buffalo, in which Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor threw 60 passes, many of them simple checkdowns, for a sickly 194 net passing yards. How many fans in Jacksonville and Buffalo are thinking, “Get us that free agent Cousins”?

Or recall the collapse of Kansas City, held scoreless in the second half of a 22-21 loss to Tennessee, as quarterback Alex Smith could generate nothing despite having the NFL’s leading rusher, Kareem Hunt (1,327 yards), behind him and Tyreek Hill (1,183 receiving yards) at wide receiver. The Chiefs’ dilemma? They had lost 1,038-yard tight end Travis Kelce.

[Will Sunday be Roethlisberger’s final home game in Pittsburgh?]

What would Cousins, reduced in his final game to playing behind two third-string linemen, handing to fifth-string runner Kapri Bibbs and throwing to what-route-will-he-decide-to-run receiver Josh Doctson, give to have such “limitations”?

From Denver to Jacksonville, from Buffalo to the Meadowlands — and maybe even in Pittsburgh, if Big Ben retires — teams will crunch numbers, study film and decide how many millions to offer Cousins in a couple of months, after the Redskins decide which tag to apply to their free agent.

Just how good is Cousins, who had “leading” rushers the past three years named Alfred Morris, Robert Kelley and Perine and who had a healthy quality receiving corps only in one season, 2016? Don’t get too nostalgic about DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. They averaged 1,023 receiving yards per man in 2016 but in 2015 only 653 apiece. When the jury reaches its verdict on Cousins, it will conclude that he usually acted alone.

Brees, Ryan and Roethlisberger have similar stats to Cousins and in some areas not as good, but they have Michael Thomas, Jones and Brown, who caught 1,245, 1,444 and 1,533 yards worth of passes this year.

The Redskins have an atrocious record for 25 years in identifying quality wide receivers. I have written that column before. Cousins is just the latest victim. His top three receivers the past three years had 7,236 yards. Brees’s top trios had 9,010. Ryan and Roethlisberger have Jones and Brown, who have caught 4,724 and 4,651 yards of passes the past three years. Cousins’s top receiver (Crowder) has 2,240.

[About that Redskins contract offer to Cousins in 2015]

Cousins is not a “good” quarterback, as the self-protective orthodoxy of some Redskins fans maintain. It’s much more likely he is one of the next great NFL quarterbacks, along with young Carson Wentz and perhaps Jared Goff. Cousins and Russell Wilson, both 29, are headed for fine duels, too.





Let’s look at three key measures of quarterback excellence over the past three years. One is traditional: quarterback rating. The top six are Brady (105.0), Brees (102.1), Wilson (98.9), Ryan (98.7), Rodgers (98.4) and Cousins (97.5).

Some consider Passer Rating Differential to be “the mother of all NFL stats” because it is such a good predictor of won-lost record and postseason success. If your team starts with a passer rating of 97.5 (Cousins), you just need to build a quality pass defense with a passer rating under the league average (85.1 in 2017) to virtually ensure a playoff team with fine January chances.





[Brady continues to buck the old age trend]

Let me introduce two new stats, which are tweaks on old ones. First, touchdowns vs. turnovers. No, not the usual touchdown passes vs. interceptions. I prefer all touchdowns, by pass and run, vs. all turnovers, interceptions and lost fumbles.

Why should Cam Newton’s 21 rushing scores from 2015 to 2017 be ignored when Philip Rivers has zero? Also, let’s acknowledge the gap between a fumbler, such as Bortles, with 14 lost in three years, and a tightfisted Roethlisberger (just three).

Looked at this way, Brady, with a 99-22 touchdown-to-turnover ratio, and Rodgers, 92-30, are almost in a different quarterback universe. The next most impressive group, with tons of touchdowns but half as many turnovers (or fewer), are Brees (97-40), Wilson (94-38), Newton (97-47) and Cousins (94-47).

Some QBs have superb ratios but are so ultra-conscious of ball security that they generate fewer scores, such as Smith (69-25) and Taylor (65-21).

The leaders in total touchdowns are Brady at 99, Brees and Newton at 97, and Cousins and Wilson at 94. If Rodgers hadn’t missed nine games this season, he would be No. 1.

Next, let’s cook up a new stat that consolidates all the plays in which the quarterback’s performance defines the outcome: passes, sacks and rushes. Who averages the most yards per play when all types of plays are combined? In other words, who’s best at gaining big gobs of passing yardage while also avoiding sacks, scrambling for gains and even running on purpose?

Ryan, the 2016 MVP, is the leader over the past three years (7.14 yards per play), followed by Roethlisberger, Brees, Brady, Cousins and Rivers. For total yardage (passing plus rushing, minus sacks), the leaders are Brees, Rivers, Ryan and Cousins.

There’s that guy Cousins again.





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If Cousins’s stats (97.5 QB rating, 94-47 touchdown-to-turnover ratio and 6.77 yards per play) are elite, what constitutes a backup QB who will kill you as a starter? That would be cross-your-fingers Nick Foles, who will have to start for the Eagles on Saturday. In the past three years, in almost 500 passes, he’s at 75.3, 16-to-16 and 5.19. That’s the make-do profile, such as Brock Osweiler (76.3, 34-to-30, 5.40), Blaine Gabbert (77.5, 24-to-22, 5.38) or, in D.C., Colt McCoy’s entire career (78.9, 28-to-26, 5.35).

The clear message of these numbers is that Washington’s owner, president and coach should all hug Cousins every day — roses are always nice — and offer him enormous piles of money while he is still technically in town. Recently, Cousins said he wanted to spend his future playing for a franchise that was a “winner” and gave him a sense of “peace,” plus lots of money, too. That doesn’t sound like D.C.

But you never absolutely know. However, if Cousins gets away, fans can still watch him play in the future. Probably deep into January. Maybe February, too.

this came out in the WAPO refuting much of the BS thrown about here

 

[Stymietee]

what is a fair contract ? and colt isnt , not even close

Oh for fuck's sake, offer the man the Jon Gruden contract, where he gets part ownership as well as 100 Million, who really cares? I certainly don't!

I honestly believe that the only reason keeping these threads going is that there are some still holding out hope that this front office is going to, after years of proving otherwise, do the right thing by Cousins. The problem is your "right thing" is clearly different from theirs and your vote don't count!!

 

[gkekoa]

Nobody discounts defense in wins...but everybody seems to discount them in losses. The losses are all on the QB right Sty?

 

[Stymietee]

Nobody discounts defense in wins...but everybody seems to discount them in losses. The losses are all on the QB right Sty?

First off, I'm not sure why you referenced me but OK.

Really?? Is this really what you want to Do?

OK, In a league that constantly references TEAM wins and losses, COACHING wins and losses and QB wins and losses, show me once in the history of the league where singularly there's been a reference to left guard, Linebacker, safety, or leader of the defense wins and losses. I'll wait....

 

[Sportster 72]

I honestly wish that we get away from using stats other than wins and losses as some sort of marker or evidence towards something in football. For instance:

You wrote: "He has led the team to a game winning drive in 25% of his games."

Which is true, but if people want to use that metric the question becomes 25% of what?

Kirk's record as a starter is 26-31-1 (An overall .457 winning percentage). Using the wins only metric, that translates into 25% of 26 games or 6.5 games in which he's done that out of the 58 games that he's started.

To eliminate the defense or other factors, as you did, out of the 26 games that the team has won during his time as starter he's been QB of 6.5 games that they won with a game winning drive. (your selective 25%)

Now, if I wanted to use your metric "25% of his games, that translates into, 6.5 (game winning drives) of 58 (his games as starter). By percentage that translates into 0.112 percent of the time that there will be a game winning drive with Kirk as QB.

I'm going to cap and underline the following for emphasis:

POINT IS....WE CAN DO THIS ALL DAY LONG, SEVEN DAYS A WEEK AND TWICE ON SUNDAYS AND IT PROVES ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!! Just sounds good to receptive ears.

3rd rated QB in his three years as a starter. It doesn't matter what I say Sty, you and the ABCers will refute, come up with another stat and then tell us "but we want to see him signed long term." Then why all the fucking negative energy?

If you read my posts and I know you do. Really any stat the Cousin's has is a TEAM stat. No one MFer won a football game by himself. If you (generic) don't understand that then you don't understand the game.

Fuck it, lets get AJ, Rosen, Lamar, Alex Smith ....

I am with Jay ... LTD or let him go. I am tired of all the panty waists and stupidity.

 

[gkekoa]

First off, I'm not sure why you referenced me but OK.

Really?? Is this really what you want to Do?

OK, In a league that constantly references TEAM wins and losses, COACHING wins and losses and QB wins and losses, show me once in the history of the league where singularly there's been a reference to left guard, Linebacker, safety, or leader of the defense wins and losses. I'll wait....

Post 83 is why you were referenced.

There isn’t a left guard, LB, safety, or a defensive leader that can make that big an impact on the game.

 

[Stymietee]

3rd rated QB in his three years as a starter. It doesn't matter what I say Sty, you and the ABCers will refute, come up with another stat and then tell us "but we want to see him signed long term." Then why all the fucking negative energy?

If you read my posts and I know you do. Really any stat the Cousin's has is a TEAM stat. No one MFer won a football game by himself. If you (generic) don't understand that then you don't understand the game.

Fuck it, lets get AJ, Rosen, Lamar, Alex Smith ....

I am with Jay ... LTD or let him go. I am tired of all the panty waists and stupidity.

Please take the time to re-read my post, hopefully, you'll find that I agreed with everything that you wrote. I do refute stats and said so in that same post because stats as I also displayed can be used to prove almost any point of view.

BTW: if we DID get A.J we move on with an upgrade at QB in this offensive system. Jay has finally caught up with me and now, so have you. It was stupid two years ago, last year and now. Welcome to the club!!

 

[Stymietee]

Post 83 is why you were referenced.

There isn’t a left guard, LB, safety, or a defensive leader that can make that big an impact on the game.

Then you misread or deliberately interpreted what I wrote for purposes of responding as you did.

Thought sure that you might come to realize that about wins and losses in current NFL parlance.

However, in the history of the NFL there have been tons of defensive player who have had bigger impact on games and championships than QB. Hell the ravens won a SB when the unquestioned leader of that entire team was Ray Lewis. Want to guess who wins and losses were attributed to on that team? (Hint: think Flacco)

 

[Sleepy T]

Oh for fuck's sake, offer the man the Jon Gruden contract, where he gets part ownership as well as 100 Million, who really cares? I certainly don't!

I honestly believe that the only reason keeping these threads going is that there are some still holding out hope that this front office is going to, after years of proving otherwise, do the right thing by Cousins. The problem is your "right thing" is clearly different from theirs and your vote don't count!!

I know right! Some people on here would give KC the world because he is truly much better than the garbage we have rolled out the last 20 years.

I liken it to dating through your 20s and early 30s and dealing with beautiful people who end up being selfish, psycho train wrecks and slutbags.... not even close to marriage material. You wake up one day at 35, and find you have a semi hot homely girl next door type who would be a good spouse and parent. It is what it is. You could certainly do worse.

But on a serious note @skinsdad62 , Put a deal on the table, the richest contract today. The Stanford contract with a little more. No negotiating, no counter offer. $140-150 mill.

 

[skinsdad62]

I know right! Some people on here would give KC the world because he is truly much better than the garbage we have rolled out the last 20 years.

I liken it to dating through your 20s and early 30s and dealing with beautiful people who end up being selfish, psycho train wrecks and slutbags.... not even close to marriage material. You wake up one day at 35, and find you have a semi hot homely girl next door type who would be a good spouse and parent. It is what it is. You could certainly do worse.

But on a serious note @skinsdad62 , Put a deal on the table, the richest contract today. The Stanford contract with a little more. No negotiating, no counter offer. $140-150 mill.

these things all have a point people and it all goes back to what has been said before . do we start over yet again or do we move forward ? , before KC came here we were a 3-5 win team with holes everywhere . when he actually took over we are about a 500 team with more depth and fewer holes

i dont see a qb coming in here and giving us what KC does at the position year one . i do see us making the playoffs next season with a good off season and a decent draft

selling me on colt mccoy and a bunch of bodies isnt too promising because we will have to draft a qb and a resource will be used chasing elite again . we could gut a draft or 2 to get said wunderkind and our free agency hit rate is about 20 -30 %

 

[gkekoa]

Then you misread or deliberately interpreted what I wrote for purposes of responding as you did.

Thought sure that you might come to realize that about wins and losses in current NFL parlance.

However, in the history of the NFL there have been tons of defensive player who have had bigger impact on games and championships than QB. Hell the ravens won a SB when the unquestioned leader of that entire team was Ray Lewis. Want to guess who wins and losses were attributed to on that team? (Hint: think Flacco)

This is what you wrote, “I honestly wish that we get away from using stats other than wins and losses as some sort of marker or evidence towards something in football.” I am not sure how else to read it when discussing a QB but perhaps we miscommunicated.

Only a QB touches the ball on every play for one half of the game. I love Ray Lewis and he was a phenominal player, unquestioned leader. That being said, Flacco impacted their wins and losses greater.

 

[skinsdad62]

i have always maintained since this began in 15 that the longer you wait on settling with him , the more it would cost . the same people bitching about cost are the same people who said they could accept a higher cost once they "saw more " and when more came the goal posts moved again , and then when more came they were moved again , and now we are" mocking highest paid player contract " for the milisecond its true to back up some lost point from years gone by and the fact is you didnt want him in the first place . derrogatory comments like "stat machine " only reinforce that feeling the truth is you were wrong about him the whole time and you cant admit he is/was waaay better then you thought .

if it were all about systems only then why didnt gabbert put the cards in the playoffs ? or the 49ers . gabbert is the equal of colt mccoy (who is the sam bradford of BU 's )

if wins were all all the qb then explain sonny jurgensen , a HOF qb if superbowls were all about the qb then explain dilfer or flacco as opposed the marino and rivers

because some of you are stuck in the middle ages and hang on to the cliches about wins , qbs help with wins , but teams win games

you cant just plug anyone in at qb in our system , RG3 was a flat failure in this system . colt mccoy played long enough to blow his last chance as a starter in this league because sam bradford mccoy cant stay healthy and when he did play in his career he laid an egg

you bitch about the "30 yr old KC " but advocate acquiring the 34 yr old smith the career game manager you say KC is

you said you wanted to see more from him but would give a contract to the less proven Grapp or AJ

you tell me RG3 wasnt a fit but advocate drafting his clone LJ

so yes we will pick up a new qb , and yes i will learn to love the guy because his failure hurts us . but when we take a step back and it does take the 2 -3 years extra to be where we want to be and resources are used chasing elite , i will be here to tell you how fucked up you all were just like you will let me know if the opposite happens . lets see who is willing to eat the crow since you didnt eat it last time

 

[Sharkinva]

I know right! Some people on here would give KC the world because he is truly much better than the garbage we have rolled out the last 20 years.

I liken it to dating through your 20s and early 30s and dealing with beautiful people who end up being selfish, psycho train wrecks and slutbags.... not even close to marriage material. You wake up one day at 35, and find you have a semi hot homely girl next door type who would be a good spouse and parent. It is what it is. You could certainly do worse.

But on a serious note @skinsdad62 , Put a deal on the table, the richest contract today. The Stanford contract with a little more. No negotiating, no counter offer. $140-150 mill.

So.. .basically.... after 20 plus years of chasing after Super Models only to realize they either suck in bed, are crazy or both.... The concept of settling for some one stable that does every thing you need except for making the Neighbor jealous is a bad thing.

Got it. Awesome analogy by the way.

 

[Stymietee]

This is what you wrote, “I honestly wish that we get away from using stats other than wins and losses as some sort of marker or evidence towards something in football.” I am not sure how else to read it when discussing a QB but perhaps we miscommunicated.

Only a QB touches the ball on every play for one half of the game. I love Ray Lewis and he was a phenominal player, unquestioned leader. That being said, Flacco impacted their wins and losses greater.

Maybe those of you who have bought, chewed, and swallowed, hook, line, and sinker, the well accepted notions about this game, would be better off rethinking your, or rather someone else's take. These are not truisms, but rather, made up concepts that sell people and product. Nothing more, nothing less.

Joe Montana, considered by many to be among the top three QB's of all time, was never thought of as "Elite" (and this is important) in his time. Great, of course, "elite" not once.

Now let's talk about your thoughts on "Only a QB touches the ball on every play for one half of the game." Really?? So how exactly does the QB get the ball?

BTW: if you believe that during their SB run, Flacco impacted the game more in terms of wins and losses, then our problem here is solved, Don't sign Kirk, get a guy like (meaning similar to) Joe Fuckin' Flacco on the cheap, then build one of the best defenses in modern times.

 

[gkekoa]

Maybe those of you who have bought, chewed, and swallowed, hook, line, and sinker, the well accepted notions about this game, would be better off rethinking your, or rather someone else's take. These are not truisms, but rather, made up concepts that sell people and product. Nothing more, nothing less.

Joe Montana, considered by many to be among the top three QB's of all time, was never thought of as "Elite" (and this is important) in his time. Great, of course, "elite" not once.

Now let's talk about your thoughts on "Only a QB touches the ball on every play for one half of the game." Really?? So how exactly does the QB get the ball?

BTW: if you believe that during their SB run, Flacco impacted the game more in terms of wins and losses, then our problem here is solved, Don't sign Kirk, get a guy like (meaning similar to) Joe Fuckin' Flacco on the cheap, then build one of the best defenses in modern times.

Good point on the center. He puts the ball in the QBs hands.

Ray Lewis was a great player on a great defense. On a great day, he hits the guy with the ball 12 times. He does help get people in the right place in those games too...just like the QB.

I agree...let’s get a cheap rookie QB after we get the best FS ever, maybe the best MLB ever, and maybe two more HOFers in Ngata and Suggs. Also, in 2013, the Raven’s defense was 12overall and in scoring.

 

[Stymietee]

Good point on the center. He puts the ball in the QBs hand

This is the kind of thing that I refer to in other threads and posts when I say that folks regurgitate what often sounds good but has little basis in fact. If I've heard it once, I've heard it a thousand times..."The QB is the ONLY player who touches the ball on every play." Sounds good, but not true.

Now that we know differently, maybe it's time to give the center a lot of props for not only delivering the ball in shotgun or direct snap (pass and hand-off), but also for line calls. Isn't that at least as important as any other position on the field?