Biggest Upsets of 2016

[nddulac]

According to my computer, the top ten upsets from last season are:

1. 10-Sep-16 Central Michigan 30 Oklahoma St 27
2. 02-Sep-16 Army 28 Temple 13
3. 01-Oct-16 San Diego St 24 South Alabama 42
4. 15-Oct-16 Virginia Tech 17 Syracuse 31
5. 03-Sep-16 Texas St-San Marcos 56 Ohio U. 54
6. 12-Nov-16 Middle Tennessee St 17 Marshall 42
7. 10-Sep-16 North Carolina St 30 East Carolina 33
8. 12-Nov-16 Pittsburgh 43 Clemson 42
9. 17-Nov-16 Arkansas St 35 Troy 3
10. 05-Nov-16 Florida 10 Arkansas 31

Some of these (like Pitt over Clemson) stand out as significant in terms of the national race, and some, like Central Michigan over Oklahoma State, we all remember as being made possible due to an officiating error.

So what say you? Which were your top three?

 

[ericd7633]

Due to the nature of the margin of victory and it being on the road, I think Arkansas State beating Troy 35-3, is probably the biggest surprise outcome of last year. Was it probably the biggest upset, probably not, but given score and location, that's gotta be the most surprising.

 

[outofyourmind]

I wasn't upset at all about Oklahoma State losing to Central Michigan..

 

[NolePride]

Why wouldn't NC A&T beating Kent State 39-36 rank as a top 10 upset.

I understand how poor Kent St is...but HBC's with the exception of Tenn St,
are pathetic. They all belong in Div II. They struggle at the 1-AA level unless
they are playing against each other.

NC A&T even beating a team as bad as Kent St is monumental.

 

[nddulac]

NC A&T even beating a team as bad as Kent St is monumental.

Generally, close games won't make the list unless the losing team is rated significantly higher than the winning team. In this case, NC A&T ended the season with a 9-3 record, and a rating of 120.997. Kent State ended the season with a 3-9 record, and a rating of 120.454.

So in this particular case, the team with the higher rating won the game, so it isn't considered an upset at all (even though the rating are so close as to say that the teams are pretty even in terms of what they accomplished over the course of the season.)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Texas State over Ohio had to have been one of the most bizarre games of the year

Texas State was one of the worst teams in the nation, while Ohio was solid and even played teams like Tennessee and Western Michigan tough

Not only that but Ohio's defense didn't let anyone get close to scoring that many points the rest of the year, while Ohio's offense also never got close to that scoring output again

 

[nddulac]

Texas State over Ohio had to have been one of the most bizarre games of the year ...

I didn't see the game, but it makes me think that there must have been some specific matchup that favored the Bobcats (wait - that doesn't help much - the Texas State Bobcats.) Either that or a lot of funny bounces.

 

[OregonDucks]

I didn't vote CMU over Ok State because fake news told me CMU didn't really "win" the game.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

I didn't vote CMU over Ok State because fake news told me CMU didn't really "win" the game.

That game was poorly officiated all the way around

Oklahoma State was down 24-20 late in the 4th quarter and should have had to convert 4th and goal from the 18 yard line in order to have a chance because the refs called holding, reviewed to see it was easily the correct call but pulled the flag anyway so that's how Oklahoma State even got the lead in that game

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

I didn't see the game, but it makes me think that there must have been some specific matchup that favored the Bobcats (wait - that doesn't help much - the Texas State Bobcats.) Either that or a lot of funny bounces.

It was one of the best games that absolutely no one saw last year. I don't know what it was, Texas State didn't have anything that could possibly even allow them to have a favorable matchup because they were basically outmatched in every way

Just have to chalk it up to bizarre week 1 results, you'll always have about 4 or 5 of them a year, Army/Temple was another one of those and of course every opener North Carolina has had recently

 

[rmilia1]

I don't know if it was the biggest upset but Kansas beating Texas was definitely the finniest upset

 

[nddulac]

Just have to chalk it up to bizarre week 1 results, you'll always have about 4 or 5 of them a year, Army/Temple was another one of those and of course every opener North Carolina has had recently

There was a recent South Carolina/North Carolina game that South Carolina won 17-13 to open the season. And the the Gamecocks went on to be miserable and North Carolina easily made a bowl. The game survuved to be one of the top ten upsets of 2015.

So yeah - I can see that.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Eastern Washington (FCS) over Washington St. was a biggy.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

There was a recent South Carolina/North Carolina game that South Carolina won 17-13 to open the season. And the the Gamecocks went on to be miserable and North Carolina easily made a bowl. The game survuved to be one of the top ten upsets of 2015.

So yeah - I can see that.

Even last year North Carolina ended up being one of the better teams in the ACC, while Georgia was one of the most crappy 8 win teams out there.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Eastern Washington (FCS) over Washington St. was a biggy.

There's another one of the bizarre week 1 things, Washington State keeps losing to FCS teams but then ends up being one of the better Pac-12 teams

 

[Chewbaccer]

Iowa over Michigan
Pitt over Clemson
Kentucky over Louisville

 

[AlaskaGuy]

There's another one of the bizarre week 1 things, Washington State keeps losing to FCS teams but then ends up being one of the better Pac-12 teams

Mike Leach teams are notorious for slow starts. They seem to improve as the season progresses.

 

[nddulac]

Eastern Washington (FCS) over Washington St. was a biggy.

My computer only keeps track of the top ten deviations, but to try to see where this one stacks up, let's take a look.

Washington State ended up with a rating of 146.768, and Eastern Washington ended up with a rating of 141.795, for a difference of about 5 points. Eastern won that game by 3 on the road. That makes for a Game Outcome Measure (GOM, the measure of "how much better" the winning team is than the losing team) of 12 (7 points for winning, 3 for margin of victory, 2 for winning on the road.) So the difference is about 17 (5 + 12, since it was an upset.) That's pretty sizable, but close to the average deviation of about 14 points.

For comparison, let's consider the #10 deviation I listed above, which was Florida 10, Arkansas 31. The final rating for Florida was 151.092, and that of Arkansas was 140.281. So that's a difference of about 11.25. The GOM for that game was 28.5 (7 for winning, 17.5 for margin of victory, and 4 for a defensive bonus (holding the other team under 14)) So the deviation from the fit was about 39.75 - significantly larger than the 17 for the EWU/WSU game.

All that said, if one defines the GOM differently, one generates different results. It would be naive to claim that EWU beating WSU wasn't a big deal, because it certainly was. But given the definition I use for GOM, it just wasn't as big of a mathematical outlier as the ones I listed.

 

[pitman]

Eastern Washington (FCS) over Washington St. was a biggy.

Ya that kinda screwed our marquee game of the year.

 

[Wild Turkey]

I love that Kansas over Texas is not on the list.