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Archie Goodwin

The Derski

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Not to hate on Goodwin. I'm probably the most optimistic Suns fan on here, but I really don't see what everyone else sees when it comes to his potential. At some point potential has to take over. The past couple seasons some of you have said he has great upside but the bottom line is he is a shooting guard with no jumpshot. He can elevate at the rim but his jumpshot is non existent. He looks like a rookie every time he plays and this is like his third season. He is a classic example of a player with huge talent leaving college too early. He's a one and done player? Seriously? Don't see it. It's time we move on from him.
 

The Derski

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I type this as he air balls a wide open three pointer.
 

GMATCa

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Goodwin's ability to reach the rim at will is reminiscent of a young Leandro Barbosa. Barbosa was slightly faster, but Goodwin is taller and stronger. He is currently averaging 2.7 free throw attempts per game in just 12.2 minutes. Conversely, Barbosa never averaged more than 2.9 free throw attempts in a season. Although per minute statistics are of limited or dubious value, Goodwin is averaging 7.9 free throw attempts per 36 minutes so far this season. As a point of comparison, Kevin Johnson twice averaged 8.0 or 8.1 free throw attempts per game, in '89-'90 and '90-'91. (Granted, the court was more crammed back then, making attacks on the hoop more difficult and that kind of free throw volume all the more impressive.)

Of course, when K.J. was averaging eight free throw attempts per game, he was shooting his free throws at an 84 percent clip. Goodwin, conversely, is currently shooting .583 from the foul line and .691 for his career. Meanwhile, Barbosa complemented his rim assaults with a highly efficient three-point shot that Goodwin lacks. On the other hand, Goodwin plays better defense than Barbosa and possesses the potential to be a flat-out defensive ace.

I thought that Goodwin showed signs of an improved jump-shot last season. However, we need to see larger sample sizes from him in order to gauge his abilities more accurately, and larger sample sizes mean more playing time. With his ability to reach the free throw line, though, the three-point shot is of less concern. Aside from floor spacing, the basic advantage of the three-point shot is that it can render one more efficient due to the added point. But if a player reaches the foul line repeatedly and converts his free throws, he can add efficiency that way. For instance, Mark Price constituted the purest off-the-dribble shooter of his era, and he used his three-point proficiency to post an extremely high .586 True Shooting Percentage during his career. Aside from two seasons late in his career, conversely, Kevin Johnson—who was once a teammate of Price's in Cleveland when they were two young point guards trying to establish themselves—never attempted more than 0.59 three-point field goals per game. Yet K.J.'s career True Shooting Percentage was .585—virtually the same as Price's—because of how often he reached the free throw line and cashed in once there. Obviously, Goodwin will need to improve his free throw shooting in order to create a similar effect, and K.J. was an outstanding jump-shooter in his own right, but the point is that Goodwin's ability to reach the foul line could represent a huge weapon that renders the three-point shot virtually irrelevant. A potential analogy would be to Sarunas Marciulionis, who is in the Hall of Fame (for his international career), and who was so good in the NBA that his presence encouraged Don Nelson to trade future Hall of Fame shooting guard Mitch Richmond to Sacramento in 1991. With Marcuilionis playing an expanded role and averaging 18.9 points, a .538 field goal percentage, and a .607 True Shooting Percentage in '91-'92, the Warriors won 55 games. At that point in his career, Marcilionis hardly ever shot threes, and he primarily scored by attacking the basket and reaching the free throw line. Before he hurt his knee during the '92-'93 season, he averaged 8.2 free throw attempts per 36 minutes for his career.

Sarunas Marciulionis


Now, for Goodwin to reach Marciulionis' level would be a stretch, but the Lithuanian is an example of the way in which Goodwin could become an asset. Goodwin does not handle the ball like Marciulionis, but he is faster and more explosive physically.

As you noted, he only spent one year in college. Age-wise, he should still be a senior in college, so I believe that the timetable needs to be longer with him. Goodwin may never amount to anything, but I would not pull the plug yet. Unfortunately, the NBA has become a league where players now need to spend years learning the game and developing basic skills, whereas in past eras, most players (including most top players) would spend three or four years in college, they would already know the game and have developed a strong base of fundamentals, and they would just need to learn how to compete at this level. Jeff Hornacek and Dan Majerle were twenty-three years old as NBA rookies; Archie Goodwin is twenty-one years old as a third-year NBA player. That pretty much says it all right there.
 
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GMATCa

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... 0-5 from the free throw line last night in Dallas. Goodwin is not a point guard, someone with talent as a set-up guard; he cannot be Rajon Rondo shooting free throws.

But one can also see how, if Goodwin had hit four of those five free throw attempts, the Suns might have completed their fourth-quarter comeback last night and how Goodwin could constitute an offensive weapon off the bench. He earned five free throw attempts in just eleven minutes of action, and he also shot 3-4 from the field. If he learns to covert his foul shots, Goodwin could be a point-per-minute machine in short bursts.
 

GMATCa

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One option with Goodwin would be use him as more of a small forward, which is plausible in today's NBA. He could thus play along the baseline more in half-court sets and cut to the basket if his man drifts away due to his lack of shooting ability.
 

johnson

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They need to let him start a few games and get some real minutes, hope he explodes for two or three lucky games, and include him in a trade package. He's about to lose the "potential" window that protects a lot of young guys who eventually make known they are just interchangeable parts on NBA rosters.
 

GMATCa

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They need to let him start a few games and get some real minutes, hope he explodes for two or three lucky games, and include him in a trade package. He's about to lose the "potential" window that protects a lot of young guys who eventually make known they are just interchangeable parts on NBA rosters.

Yeah, now that the Suns have started Warren at small forward the last two games—without much in the way of results—they might as well try Goodwin as the starting small forward. Fast break and transition opportunities are most abundant at the start of the game (and, to a lesser extent, the start of the second half), and Goodwin thrives in those situations, much like Warren. He will also probably play better defense than Warren.
 
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