Altuve/Stanton win MVP

[MilkSpiller22]

I get it. The difference is that in one instance, you can just stay put on 1st base. A hitter isn't just going to not swing the bat. But the results are the same, it's extra outs.

I tend to compare baserunning to baserunning. And Arenado took the extra bag 55% of the time compared to 41% for Blackmon. And was caught on the basepaths just 4 times (not including stolen bases) compared to 9 times for Blackmon.

yes, but when you look at a players stats we dont look at the what could have beens... we look at the actual results.. sure if you just look at baserunning you are right...

do you include GIDP in any way in your analysis??

 

[soxfan1468927]

yes, but when you look at a players stats we dont look at the what could have beens... we look at the actual results.. sure if you just look at baserunning you are right...

do you include GIDP in any way in your analysis??

Yeah sure I'll look at extra outs. But like I pointed out earlier, the raw number of GIDP doesn't tell me much. Plus if we need to get our hands dirty to really evaluate, I have to see how damaging those double plays were to determine how much it hurts a player's value.

 

[soxfan1468927]

yes, but when you look at a players stats we dont look at the what could have beens... we look at the actual results.. sure if you just look at baserunning you are right...

do you include GIDP in any way in your analysis??

And really, usually the surface stuff will tell me enough. I'll really dig into splits when we have a year like this.

 

[navamind]

Goldy robbed? Lol, Votto was a much better hitter.

 

[navamind]

so, an elite defensive 3B is more valuable than an average at best defensive CF?? disregarding offense...

and so what about the 10 CS when there is a 17 differential in GIDP...

Blackmon had 4 GIDP and 10 CS= 14 extra outs
Arenado had 21 GIDP and 2 CS= 23 extra outs

yes.

and of course he's going to have more GIDP, he's a middle of the order hitter while Blackmon was a leadoff hitter year round. Also, Blackmon ran into 9 outs on the bases (not steal attempts) while Arenado ran into 4 outs. Arenado was also better at taking extra bases (55% XBT vs Blackmon's 41%).

Charlie Blackmon Batting Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

Nolan Arenado Batting Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

 

[tducey]

Congrats to them both. Not sure I agree with Stanton winning NL MVP though.

 

[Omar 382]

NL MVP was really tight and the voting reflected that. Stanton did lead all position players in both baseball-reference and fangraphs WAR. My vote would have gone to Arenado, but it was really close. And I really had to dig to find major differences. One of the things I found was Arenado's play against winning teams and his clutch play put him over the top for me.

For a comparison between Arenado and Stanton in terms of those two aspects:

Stanton vs teams with a losing record: 436 plate appearances, 1.106 OPS
Stanton vs teams with a winning record: 256 plate appearances, .842 OPS

Arenado vs teams with a losing record: 385 plate appearances, .953 OPS
Arenado vs teams with a winning record: 295 plate appearances, .967 OPS

Stanton with 2 outs and runners in scoring position: .215/.338/.385/.722
Arenado with 2 outs and runners in scoring position: .359/.481/.797/1.278

And due largely to his play in high-leverage situations, Arenado's WPA was 4.9 to Stanton's 4.8. They were 1 and 2 in the league.

And I understand that Arenado plays at Coors, but his road tOPS+ (which measures his OPS in that split compared to his total OPS) was 86 compared to 85 for Stanton.

There are a few other things, and I won't dig this deep into the numbers unless it's really close, and this year it was.

I think that is very interesting- and, in this particular case, I would consider all of that because of how big a gap there is between them in those 3 scenarios.

But, regarding the 2 outs and RISP scenarios, can we really hold that against Stanton? I think most people have come to ~a consensus that hitting with RISP is, at the least, not a very repeatable skill. (People get bent out of shape if you call it random, so I went with "not very repeatable.")

Just taking Arenado as an example, he has had at least 450 PA in every season he's played in since coming to the bigs in 2013. I don't know how accurate the stat Clutch is from Fangraphs, but, just using it as a base, Arenado had a -0.42 Clutch in '13, 1.43 Clutch in '14, -0.92 Clutch in '15, 0.27 Clutch in '16, and a 1.53 Clutch in '17.

In 2015, his Clutch rating of -0.92 was ranked 113/141 among all qualified hitters in baseball.

On the flip side, his Clutch rating this year of 1.53 was 8/144 among all qualified hitters in baseball.

That right there is setting off some bullshit alarms in my head. Great players who have great skills- whether they be hitting home runs, getting on base, stealing bags, recording strikeouts, walking very few batters, etc.; do not have their skills vary so greatly from one season to the next (barring injury). For example, Jim Thome in his prime didn't hit 50 home runs one season, 8 the next, 55 home runs the next, and then 12 the year after. Roy Oswalt in his prime didn't have one 2.75 ERA season, and then a 5.50 ERA the next, then a 3.00 ERA the following. You get the point.

Also, maybe it's just this particular "Clutch" stat, but when, in 2017, the bottom 4 hitters in Clutch in baseball are Stanton (141/144), Jose Ramirez (142/144), Bryant (143/144), and Judge (144/144)- again, bullshit alarm. I know that WPA/LI is (at t least considered) the best stat to measure talent in adding wins, but we're talking about something slightly different. From their website, Clutch is defined as:

"In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, '…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.' It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch."

Maybe I picked a bad stat to use. But I still don't know how much stock I want to put in hitting with RISP, when I consider a lot of it to be random.

 

[Cedrique]

Jose Altuve becomes the 5th player to win AL MVP and the World Series in the same year since playoff expansion in 1969. Last done by Willie Hernandez in 1984. The others were Cal Ripken in 1983, Reggie Jackson in 1973, and Boog Powell in 1970.

Obviously prior that, with only one team making it right to the World Series in each league, it was common as the MVP often came from the pennant winning teams.

This has happened 3 times in the NL since Willie Hernandez. Kris Bryant in 2016, Buster Posey in 2012, and Kirk Gibson in 1988.

Why are you only going back to 1984 in the NL? You're glossing over Schmitty in 1980 winning the NL MVP, the World Series, and also the World Series MVP.

 

[dougplayer]

The kid from yankees next year??

 

[soxfan1468927]

I think that is very interesting- and, in this particular case, I would consider all of that because of how big a gap there is between them in those 3 scenarios.

But, regarding the 2 outs and RISP scenarios, can we really hold that against Stanton? I think most people have come to ~a consensus that hitting with RISP is, at the least, not a very repeatable skill. (People get bent out of shape if you call it random, so I went with "not very repeatable.")

Just taking Arenado as an example, he has had at least 450 PA in every season he's played in since coming to the bigs in 2013. I don't know how accurate the stat Clutch is from Fangraphs, but, just using it as a base, Arenado had a -0.42 Clutch in '13, 1.43 Clutch in '14, -0.92 Clutch in '15, 0.27 Clutch in '16, and a 1.53 Clutch in '17.

In 2015, his Clutch rating of -0.92 was ranked 113/141 among all qualified hitters in baseball.

On the flip side, his Clutch rating this year of 1.53 was 8/144 among all qualified hitters in baseball.

That right there is setting off some bullshit alarms in my head. Great players who have great skills- whether they be hitting home runs, getting on base, stealing bags, recording strikeouts, walking very few batters, etc.; do not have their skills vary so greatly from one season to the next (barring injury). For example, Jim Thome in his prime didn't hit 50 home runs one season, 8 the next, 55 home runs the next, and then 12 the year after. Roy Oswalt in his prime didn't have one 2.75 ERA season, and then a 5.50 ERA the next, then a 3.00 ERA the following. You get the point.

Also, maybe it's just this particular "Clutch" stat, but when, in 2017, the bottom 4 hitters in Clutch in baseball are Stanton (141/144), Jose Ramirez (142/144), Bryant (143/144), and Judge (144/144)- again, bullshit alarm. I know that WPA/LI is (at t least considered) the best stat to measure talent in adding wins, but we're talking about something slightly different. From their website, Clutch is defined as:

"In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, '…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.' It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch."

Maybe I picked a bad stat to use. But I still don't know how much stock I want to put in hitting with RISP, when I consider a lot of it to be random.

But just because a skill is not repeatable does not hurt the value of that result. Bill James actually just wrote an article about this exact thing Friday night.

You wrote a lot here, but I think you missed my point. I wasn't calling Arenado more valuable because he did something that can be repeated in the coming years. I said he was more valuable because he produced in high leverage situations. Whether he can repeat that in 2018 or has done that in 2016 is irrelevant to the MVP case of 2017.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Why are you only going back to 1984 in the NL? You're glossing over Schmitty in 1980 winning the NL MVP, the World Series, and also the World Series MVP.

I didn't gloss over anything. I simply said it was the first time that it had happened in the AL since 1984, and pointed out that it has happened 3 times in the NL since then.

 

[Cedrique]

I didn't gloss over anything. I simply said it was the first time that it had happened in the AL since 1984, and pointed out that it has happened 3 times in the NL since then.

Yeah that was mainly me being a "homer" . But you mentioned all the AL guys who did it after 1969 and before 1984.

 

[Cedrique]

Also Stargell in 1979 did it. And I think Joe Morgan might have done it twice-in a row

 

[soxfan1468927]

Yeah that was mainly me being a "homer" . But you mentioned all the AL guys who did it after 1969 and before 1984.

Yeah that's because an AL guy did it this year.

 

[Cedrique]

Yeah that's because an AL guy did it this year.

Just humor me. I'm an old man and I need to exercise my brain by trying to remember these obscure facts. Now I think that is all the NL guys that did it- I doubt anyone from the 1969 Mets won MVP, unless maybe it was a pitcher.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Just humor me. I'm an old man and I need to exercise my brain by trying to remember these obscure facts. Now I think that is all the NL guys that did it- I doubt anyone from the 1969 Mets won MVP, unless maybe it was a pitcher.

Nope that's it. Schmidt, Stargell, and Morgan twice. McCovey won in 1969, barely beating out Tom Seaver. Both had 11 first place votes. Stargell came somewhat close to doing it twice. He finished 2nd in 1971 but only had 3 first-place votes

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

 

[soxfan1468927]

View attachment 169667

I saw that making it's way around twitter.

A 13 point difference in wRC+ and 7 point difference in OPS+ is made up by Altuve being a 2nd baseman and his baserunning value.

 

[navamind]

View attachment 169667

One's a 2nd baseman. One's a right fielder. There's a pretty big difference between the two positions offensively.