POLL AFC Playoff Teams

[Fountain City Blues]

It kinda is though. They've won the same number of games and they've scored more points this year away from Arrowhead.

Passing YPG at home: 229
Passing YPG away: 268

QBR rating at home: 92.2
QBR rating away: 112.4

Rushing YPG at home: 96.8
Rushing YPG away: 132.8

And market correction incoming in 3...2...1...

 

[Yo Tee]

Yet they were a top 10 DVOA team going into the Chiefs game, and had been such for about a 20 game span. Yes the Cowboys D sucks; especially when Lee is out, but the offense when healthy is also quite good. The Cowboys have a top heavy formula, but it did and still does work. We can pretend this isn't the case kind of like people did in 2015 when Romo was out.



Sure they are. 5-0 to start the season is just as meaningful as 0-5 is to start the season; or in the midpoint of it. Same with 1-4. My point in this thread is we have seen such stretches from Reid's teams most every year one way or another since his time in KC. Bottom line is they're 6-4 and have maybe the easiest slate in the NFL. I'd be surprised if they fail to get to 10 wins, and that's not so much confidence in the Chiefs as much as I think little of their opposition.

DVOA is just as useful of a stat as WAR in baseball. The Dallas Cowboys are middle of the pack this year. They aren't as good as they were last year and weren't that good before the injuries started.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

DVOA is just as useful of a stat as WAR in baseball. The Dallas Cowboys are middle of the pack this year. They aren't as good as they were last year and weren't that good before the injuries started.

I agree- I just think we are on completely different foundations here. The Cowboys were always a top-heavy team. It didn't take much to go wrong for them to go to 8-8. We saw that in the Romo days, we're seeing it now; douchey as Goodell is being. We also saw some of the good Dallas can be the last couple of years. The Cowboys now minus 3 all-pro caliber players when healthy (or even not healthy with Tyron; his back has sucked for years) is vastly different from the Cowboys from a few weeks ago.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Went Steelers, Pats, Chiefs, Jags, Titans, and Ravens.

Ravens have 1 really tough game remaining at Pittsburgh, and 2 games that will be at least competitive @Green Bay and home against Detroit. The other 4 are home against Indy, Houston, Cincy, and @Cleveland. I think 9-7 gets a wild card in the AFC and Ravens shouldn't lose more than 2 of those games.

Buffalo is about to completely tank. @Chargers, @Chiefs, home vs Patriots, and @New England left on their schedule. Plus @Miami, home against Miami, and home against Indy. I think they win 2 more games, maybe.

my exact picks as well

 

[Yo Tee]

I agree- I just think we are on completely different foundations here. The Cowboys were always a top-heavy team. It didn't take much to go wrong for them to go to 8-8. We saw that in the Romo days, we're seeing it now; douchey as Goodell is being. We also saw some of the good Dallas can be the last couple of years.

We all know how good Dallas can be now after last year. It's just not clicking this year and the injuries aren't helping. But, their lack of success this year isn't solely based on their injuries.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

We all know how good Dallas can be now after last year. It's just not clicking this year and the injuries aren't helping. But, their lack of success this year isn't solely based on their injuries.

I think your taking their output at face value and not considering the impact losing 3 all-pros in rapid succession does. That really would be a team to talk about "two different teams."

 

[soxfan1468927]

It kinda is though. They've won the same number of games and they've scored more points this year away from Arrowhead.

Passing YPG at home: 229
Passing YPG away: 268

QBR rating at home: 92.2
QBR rating away: 112.4

Rushing YPG at home: 96.8
Rushing YPG away: 132.8

Come on, you're trolling right? You think that has anything to do with the fact that they've played 2 more games on the road than at home?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Just for reference, the Chiefs have demonstrated in recent weeks they can hold down bad offenses like Denver, New York, LA, etc. They face a lot of bad offenses. Even if the Chiefs offense regresses to 2016/2015 levels, we're talking 24 PPG from the offense instead of 27-30. I'd give the Chiefs around a 95% chance of winning the West. I am sure someone will find a stat that says 92% instead as I post this. This is probably the biggest hole in the collapse idea; it betrays everything we know about the talent level of the offense even at relatively pessimistic or lukewarm expectations.

 

[Yo Tee]

I think your taking their output at face value and not considering the impact losing 3 all-pros in rapid succession does. That really would be a team to talk about "two different teams."

Eh, IDK. I suppose. Sean Lee and Tyron Smith were there for the week 2 loss against Denver though. Defense and Offense looked like shit. I think the Zeke absence is hurting the worst. Look how putrid the offense looked the last 2 weeks. I can see what you're saying now.

 

[Yo Tee]

Come on, you're trolling right? You think that has anything to do with the fact that they've played 2 more games on the road than at home?

Well, the PPG is an average so it's a fair assessment. No comments on the offensive production per game stats? Do you have any stats to add to the conversation or do you just always go to the "you're a troll" argument when having a discussion with someone that disagrees with you?

 

[Oldschool739]

Good post.

IMO it's BAL, TN, JAX...I'm not 100% on JAX winning the DIV, but I'm leaning that way and TN and BAL have their regular QB.

BAL (4-5) as long as Harbaugh is there I think you're going to get 100% from them every week. Will it be enough based on their performance to date on OFC?...idk but I can see this team around that 9-7 mark. FWIW...i don't think 8-8 gets in.

BAL have remaining...@ GB, HOU, DET, @ PIT, @ CLE, IND, CIN....is 5-2 feasible? I think so.

I like your thinking , but I don't think it matters much....It's looking more like a Pa SB to me....
Pitts vs Philly.....That would be a good one !!!
Of course I'm hoping my Ravens O finds lightening in a bottle and blows the whole thing up but it's a long shot this yr....

 

[soxfan1468927]

Well, the PPG is an average so it's a fair assessment. No comments on the offensive production per game stats? Do you have any stats to add to the conversation or do you just always go to the "you're a troll" argument when having a discussion with someone that disagrees with you?

God you're sensitive. No, I call people trolls when they make stupid points like that.

You brought up passing yards per game on the road compared to at home. Who did they play on the road? The Patriots (last in passing yards allowed per game), Texans (26th), Oakland (27th), Giants (29th), Cowboys (14th), and Chargers (8th). So 4 out of the 6 were bottom 7 teams in terms of passing yards per game allowed. The 4 teams he faced at home? Steelers (3rd), Broncos (5th), Eagles (19th), Redskins (25th).

You brought up QB rating on the road compare to at home. Who did they play on the road? Patriots (22nd in opponent QB rating), Texans (29th), Raiders (32nd), Giants (26th), Cowboys (25th), and Chargers (6th). Who did he play at home? Steelers (3rd), Eagles (5th), Redskins (17th), Broncos (28th).

You brought up rushing yards per game on the road compared to at home. Who did they play on the road? Chargers (32nd in opponent rushing yards per game), Giants (30th), Patriots (24th), Cowboys (21st), Raiders (17th), Texans (7th). Who did they play at home? Eagles (1st), Broncos (4th), Steelers (8th), and Redskins (19th).

It is stupid to argue that the Chiefs don't play better at home based on a sample size of 4 games.

Since Alex Smith got there, the Chiefs are 23-15 on the road and average +5.05 point differential, at home they are 26-10 and average +6.75 point differential.

 

[Yo Tee]

God you're sensitive. No, I call people trolls when they make stupid points like that.

You brought up passing yards per game on the road compared to at home. Who did they play on the road? The Patriots (last in passing yards allowed per game), Texans (26th), Oakland (27th), Giants (29th), Cowboys (14th), and Chargers (8th). So 4 out of the 6 were bottom 7 teams in terms of passing yards per game allowed. The 4 teams he faced at home? Steelers (3rd), Broncos (5th), Eagles (19th), Redskins (25th).

You brought up QB rating on the road compare to at home. Who did they play on the road? Patriots (22nd in opponent QB rating), Texans (29th), Raiders (32nd), Giants (26th), Cowboys (25th), and Chargers (6th). Who did he play at home? Steelers (3rd), Eagles (5th), Redskins (17th), Broncos (28th).

You brought up rushing yards per game on the road compared to at home. Who did they play on the road? Chargers (32nd in opponent rushing yards per game), Giants (30th), Patriots (24th), Cowboys (21st), Raiders (17th), Texans (7th). Who did they play at home? Eagles (1st), Broncos (4th), Steelers (8th), and Redskins (19th).

It is stupid to argue that the Chiefs don't play better at home based on a sample size of 4 games.

Since Alex Smith got there, the Chiefs are 23-15 on the road and average +5.05 point differential, at home they are 26-10 and average +6.75 point differential.

Not sensitive, just appreciate civil conversation that's all. So you're argument is that their stats are better on the road because of the teams they played? Just wanna make sure I'm reading you correctly.

I don't think it's stupid to argue it, it's just what we have to go by. I think 4 games is a solid sample to go by because that's half of their home schedule. It's not like we are judging how the entire team is doing after 2 games. It's a solid stat sample to go by. Now, I will say that their worst losses have come on the road. I just find it interesting how their stats are better on the road but they can't seem to seal the deal on the road. Maybe the offense is playing better but their defense is struggling. IDK, I haven't looked at defensive stats yet. There might be a middle ground between what we are both arguing for that is the reality of the matter.

 

[Clayton]

Chiefs two worst games of the season were against the Cowboys and Giants and both on the road. The Cowboys game was also the only game that the Chiefs had no real shot to win. They had chances against the Steelers, atRaiders and atGiants.

I don't really care about stats in this regard. Cowboys gave up some garbage stats to the Chiefs, for example.

 

[Debbie Does]

Chiefs beat the Patriots when they sucked, and then beat the Eagles in week 2. Since then, they haven't beaten a good team. The Patriots and Eagles today would kick their ass.

 

[Clayton]

Chiefs beat the Patriots when they sucked, and then beat the Eagles in week 2. Since then, they haven't beaten a good team. The Patriots and Eagles today would kick their ass.

Chiefs had Berry for the Patriots game. I dont see what is so different about the Eagles game, though.

 

[soxfan148927]

Not sensitive, just appreciate civil conversation that's all. So you're argument is that their stats are better on the road because of the teams they played? Just wanna make sure I'm reading you correctly.

I don't think it's stupid to argue it, it's just what we have to go by. I think 4 games is a solid sample to go by because that's half of their home schedule. It's not like we are judging how the entire team is doing after 2 games. It's a solid stat sample to go by. Now, I will say that their worst losses have come on the road. I just find it interesting how their stats are better on the road but they can't seem to seal the deal on the road. Maybe the offense is playing better but their defense is struggling. IDK, I haven't looked at defensive stats yet. There might be a middle ground between what we are both arguing for that is the reality of the matter.

I'm saying the teams who they have played on the road certainly has to be taken into consideration when looking at such a small sample size.

 

[tedman2012]

I wouldn't be surprised if both AFC wild card teams are 9-7. Titans have @Colts (division game on the road, opponent coming off a bye, not an easy spot), home vs Houston, @Cardinals, @SanFran, home vs Rams, home vs Jaguars.

I can see them going 3-3 easily.

Which begs the question, is there another team that is sitting at 4-5 or 3-6 that has a good shot at getting to 9-7.

well I think a 7-9 team will be the last wildcard 8-8 at best . of the 3 win team the colts are only one I see could do anything . they have 3 starter returning from ir and pup list .

 

[tedman2012]

The thing is, they have the Texans, Colts, and Bengals at home; plus the Browns on the road.

colts will beat them

 

[soxfan148927]

well I think a 7-9 team will be the last wildcard 8-8 at best . of the 3 win team the colts are only one I see could do anything . they have 3 starter returning from ir and pup list .

I don't know about that. Ravens and Titans could both be 9-7 or 10-6 without anything crazy happening.

Baltimore:
Texans
Lions
@Steelers
@Browns
Colts
Bengals

They could go 4-2 or 5-1

Tennessee:
@Indianapolis
Texans
@Cardinals
@49ers
Rams
Jaguars

They could go 3-3