Game Thread: 5/22 Blachparty @Chubbs

[calsnowskier]

Well, we could ask for two more wins and two fewer losses.

You CAN ask, but everyone will be looking at you like...

 

[LHG]

Belt especially, as he loses a lot of HR at home.

 

[LHG]

You CAN ask, but everyone will be looking at you like...

I was just merely pointing out that one COULD ask for more.

 

[calsnowskier]

I was just merely pointing out that one COULD ask for more.

Sure...

If you want to be THAT guy...

 

[1phlapdown]

Next up JC, who really needs to start KNUCKLING DOWN if the season is going to be saved. Perhaps the kid doing well will motivate some of the laggers.

 

[LHG]

Sure...

If you want to be THAT guy...

Its a difficult job but someone has to do it.

 

[SFGRTB]

If we lose this, it's on Noggin.

Blach had 94 pitches after 7. Shoulda pinch hit for him in the 8th. Blach had no business being in there for the 8th.

I think the worst part is that no one was warming up. After the homer, no one was ready.

 

[SFGRTB]

Anyone catch what Baez was doing after he was thrown out trying to steal? I can't figure out what he's doing.

Posey throws out Baez

 

[SFGRTB]

Always great beating the Cubs though. Never liked 'em, hate 'em more now.

 

[calsnowskier]

Anyone catch what Baez was doing after he was thrown out trying to steal? I can't figure out what he's doing.

Posey throws out Baez

He seemed to respect the throw and tag, then he was acting out how he would have applied the tag.

WAG

 

[LHG]

I just read today that Belt's BABIP this year is .298. His career BABIP is .339. The dude should start getting even better at some point this season.

 

[tzill]

If we lose this, it's on Noggin.

Blach had 94 pitches after 7. Shoulda pinch hit for him in the 8th. Blach had no business being in there for the 8th.

That was kind of my feeling while I was watching.

Then, I remembered that Boch is a HOF manager and knows 100x what I do about baseball in general and his team in particular.

 

[tzill]

I just read today that Belt's BABIP this year is .298. His career BABIP is .339. The dude should start getting even better at some point this season.

Maybe. There are a bunch of debates rolling around the interwebs arguing about BABIP and its sustainability/luck. Conventional wisdom that average BABIP is right around .300. Thus, maybe BB9 has been lucky up til now and he's reverting to the mean?

 

[calsnowskier]

I am not a huge believer in the fact that BABIP tells a whole lot. Matt Moore will naturally, even with infinite ABs, have a lower BABIP than Barry Bonds. This because Moore would not square up the same way Bonds would.

Take that extreme example, tighten it up, and apply it to an individual player.

Panik, when in the zone and not suffering from concussions or a broken back would naturally have a higher BABIP than a concussed Panik in traction. No luck involved.

 

[LHG]

I am not a huge believer in the fact that BABIP tells a whole lot. Matt Moore will naturally, even with infinite ABs, have a lower BABIP than Barry Bonds. This because Moore would not square up the same way Bonds would.

Take that extreme example, tighten it up, and apply it to an individual player.

Panik, when in the zone and not suffering from concussions or a broken back would naturally have a higher BABIP than a concussed Panik in traction. No luck involved.

Maybe I misunderstand your post but we aren't comparing Belt to anyone better or worse than himself and a healthy vs. an injured version (that I'm aware of). Assuming that the amount of balls he puts in play becoming hits go back to what is typical for him, he should start raising the average and slugging percentage.

 

[LHG]

Maybe. There are a bunch of debates rolling around the interwebs arguing about BABIP and its sustainability/luck. Conventional wisdom that average BABIP is right around .300. Thus, maybe BB9 has been lucky up til now and he's reverting to the mean?

Maybe but he's got enough at-bats that say .298 BABIP is low for him. So either he has a down year for him or his numbers start climbing at some point.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Anyone catch what Baez was doing after he was thrown out trying to steal? I can't figure out what he's doing.

Posey throws out Baez

Bitching about the call. But his ass was out. Literally.

 

[tzill]

Maybe but he's got enough at-bats that say .298 BABIP is low for him. So either he has a down year for him or his numbers start climbing at some point.

I don't have a dog in this fight, but there are a lot of people a lot smarter than I who would say that .298 BABIP is about right for just about every hitter.

 

[LHG]

I don't have a dog in this fight, but there are a lot of people a lot smarter than I who would say that .298 BABIP is about right for just about every hitter.

I guess I would need to read some of the arguments but it but it doesn't make sense, from a very uninformed position, how that would be the case for all hitters but batting average, on base and slugging percentages can vary wildly from one player to another. Sure, there are medians for all three, that doesn't mean that all hitters will tend toward the median in any of them. When there is a well established history of how a player performs, as long as there is consistency and the player isn't in the decline phase of his career, I don't see how that norm is not to be expected.

 

[tzill]

I guess I would need to read some of the arguments but it but it doesn't make sense, from a very uninformed position, how that would be the case for all hitters but batting average, on base and slugging percentages can vary wildly from one player to another. Sure, there are medians for all three, that doesn't mean that all hitters will tend toward the median in any of them. When there is a well established history of how a player performs, as long as there is consistency and the player isn't in the decline phase of his career, I don't see how that norm is not to be expected.

I see your point, but there are a bunch of advanced analyses that show that pretty much everyone reverts to about .300 BABIP. Now, some players put a ton more balls in play than others, so their average will be higher but that's the mean.

A similar argument raged on the interwebs years ago about Cain and his HR rate given his propensity for fly balls. I think the consensus is that eventually he'd revert to the mean and he did.