46n2's Conference Projections (5/18/2012)

[Forty_Sixand2]

Conference Projections, 5/18/2012

Remember, this is entirely conjecture based on the tone that I have heard and what I take from it and is subject to change a bunch of times. There will be 20 different versions of this and 500 rumors before it is all done. 2014 appears to be TH year. The BCS needs to decide how the final four will be selected. If it is conference champions, look for four major conferences to ABSOLUTELY be born. If it a selection committee thing, things get more shaky. The percentages are my confidence)

These are my projections based on the four conference system:

B1G
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Penn State
Nebraska
Indiana
Northwestern
Iowa
Illinois
Purdue
Minnesota
Notre Dame (90%)
Virginia Tech (60%)
Georgia Tech (60%)
Pittsburgh (30%)

SEC
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Arkansas
aTm
South Carolina
Florida
Tennessee
Georgia
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Missouri
NC State (50%)
Rutgers (20%)

Big XII
Texas
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
West Virginia
Florida State (60%)
Clemson (60%)
Virginia (20%)
UNC (20%)
Louisville (50%)
Cincinnati (30%)

Pac 12
Cal
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Arizona
Arizona St.
Oregon
Oregon St.
Washington
Washington St.
Utah
Colorado
Boise St. (20%)
BYU (20%)
San Diego St. (10%)
Air Force (10%)

For now, I think that the Big XII and B1G will eat most of the ACC, but if the Pac 12 decides to want an eastern presence, this could all change and schools like UVA, Maryland, Duke, UNC etc .may end up in the Pac 12. Nobody likes Maryland or their AD right now, so they may be SOL right now.

 

[rfjeff9]

HaHa, THanks! I was looking in the old thread.

Works for me, and LOL at Rutgers in SEC. Poor bastards.

NCSU makes WAY TOO MUCH sense in the SEC - that's gotta happen.

In the end, I would think this scenario makes some of these former ACC/BE teams more competitive over the course of several years.

BUT, are you saying this is for all sports, or football only?

 

[NDHoosier101]

I think ND's AD still wields enough power to keep us Independent, but we'll obviously see. And like rfjeff asked, is this football only? Cause I'd be surprised if the PAC took in BSU, SDSU, and AF for all sports.

 

[757Hokie83]

how many years before Rutgers gets their first conference win?

 

[hokie43]

how many years before Rutgers gets their first conference win?

I'm sure they would have a chance against Kentucky or vandy..maybe not.

 

[Cobrabit]

I think ND's AD still wields enough power to keep us Independent, but we'll obviously see. And like rfjeff asked, is this football only? Cause I'd be surprised if the PAC took in BSU, SDSU, and AF for all sports.

If it is 4 conference champions in the "playoff", then that would/should force ND's hand to join a conference as I don't see the other programs allowing the same exemption the BCS has for ND once again. But like you said, we'll have to wait and see.

 

[goDAWGSsicem]

Rutgers... in the SEC...

I am personally & officially rejecting their application right now.

If the Sec were to expand further, I think we go after a powerhouse. We already added two scrubs, I don't see them adding two more. VT, or maybe someone like Miami (vomit) would be much more appealing.

 

[rfjeff9]

If it is 4 conference champions in the "playoff", then that would/should force ND's hand to join a conference as I don't see the other programs allowing the same exemption the BCS has for ND once again. But like you said, we'll have to wait and see.

I agree with this. ND must join if there is a 4 conference playoff.

 

[rfjeff9]

Rutgers... in the SEC...

I am personally & officially rejecting their application right now.

If the Sec were to expand further, I think we go after a powerhouse. We already added two scrubs, I don't see them adding two more. VT, or maybe someone like Miami (vomit) would be much more appealing.

Appealing, but I don't see VT joining. The rumor is they have already said no. NCSU would be a reasonable add but they are not exactly a powerhouse. Ditto for Virginia.

 

[sparko]

What's the general sentiment on how the playoff will pan out? Obviously, that's the piece that will probably determine how all of the other pieces fall? I'm too lazy to dig this info up .. but other than the obvious answer of "ESPN":

Who makes up the committee deciding this?
Where does the power lie or does everyone have an "equal vote" ??
What are the REAL options on the table? I've heard a few options being thrown around:
1. 4 conferences -- champs are in
2. top 4 taken from the top 6, with conf champs getting preference (in other words, if you're a conf champ and NOT in the top 6, you're not eligible for a playoff
3. top 4 .. period

option 1 would DEFINITELY make the plates shift .. and in the long run, would equal the playing field the most and, in theory, the conferences would probably "equal" out the most.

option 2 isn't a bad alternative IMO .. and probably the most fair .. there are still politics (in whatever poll/computers involved) but at least a great conf champ gets preference. it's the best alternative i think because it doesn't unfairly give a conf champ carte blanche access to the playoff .. keeping each regular season game important .. i'd like to see it top 10 instead of top 6 though to minimize the bullshit poll politics.

option 3 sucks .. too much politics

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

Rutgers... in the SEC...

I am personally & officially rejecting their application right now.

If the Sec were to expand further, I think we go after a powerhouse. We already added two scrubs, I don't see them adding two more. VT, or maybe someone like Miami (vomit) would be much more appealing.

Talk to your gamecock and gator friends.

 

[sparko]

Appealing, but I don't see VT joining. The rumor is they have already said no. NCSU would be a reasonable add but they are not exactly a powerhouse. Ditto for Virginia.

Still .. those programs have shown potential .. and the SEC isn't going to be worried about getting a powerhouse. They have plenty of those and would love to keep the status quo. I know it brings the New York market but Rutgers to the SEC? I just don't see that happening. Just my guess but I think they'd prefer to take (in this order):

UNC/NC State
VT/MD/UVA

... and I think they'd take any two of these before Rutgers

 

[rfjeff9]

Still .. those programs have shown potential .. and the SEC isn't going to be worried about getting a powerhouse. They have plenty of those and would love to keep the status quo. I know it brings the New York market but Rutgers to the SEC? I just don't see that happening. Just my guess but I think they'd prefer to take (in this order):

UNC/NC State
VT/MD/UVA

... and I think they'd take any two of these before Rutgers

Most likely, and I agree. I think SEC to 16 is very easy, but only with the above as candidates.

 

[goDAWGSsicem]

VT may or may not have said no to the SEC, but that was before the apparent impending collapse of the ACC. As Sparko suggested, i could see the SEC going after Maryland or Virginia before Rutgers.

I definitely see Miami, Clemson and GT getting blocked from the SEC, but it doesn't mean it's impossible... except GT, no one would vote to let them back in... and Clemson adds nothing market wise.

Maybe another Big East team like Cincy? Although I don't think they would fit in either.

I honestly think VT is at the top of the wanted list for the SEC and the only reason I can see them rejecting the offer if the ACC dissolves... is that they're scared.

 

[sparko]

I honestly think VT is at the top of the wanted list for the SEC and the only reason I can see them rejecting the offer if the ACC dissolves... is that they're scared.

You're right .. We're scared that the second we step into an SEC stadium that our average IQ will drop from 100 to below 30



bahahah .. in all seriousness, I'd be cool with it, just so we could beat Tennessee's ass every year

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

I think ND's AD still wields enough power to keep us Independent, but we'll obviously see. And like rfjeff asked, is this football only? Cause I'd be surprised if the PAC took in BSU, SDSU, and AF for all sports.

in this scenario the Big 12 survives thus they don't get Texas, Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State

thus those 4 are the best choices they have, plus this arrangement is likely to be football only.

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

BTN along with the ESPN/B1G contract is more lucrative than the current ESPN/SEC deal and the BOV and Admin at Virginia Tech think that they are a better fit in the ACC or B10 than the SEC. I am not saying that I agree or disagree but it is what it is.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

for some reason I can see VT playing teams like Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin every year.

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

So can I. I also think they would go for and get AAU status after the jump and get the 400mil in research money.

 

[sparko]

I thought you were saying that this would be a football-only jump? If it were a full-jump, I'd say it's a no brainer to go to the B1G .. If it's just football, it's a toss up. I think either would be better than sinking with the ship.

I travel some to Madison on business and know plenty of Wisconsin fans .. Would love to swing a "business trip" to Camp Randall ... and there are more Big 10 fans around here than SEC (other than the occasional Tennessee fan) .. so it would be fun.

If we could just rid the world of shitty WVU fans ....