2018 Roster Expectations

[stanford the manford]

in every game i attended in '17 the giants were the oldest and least athletic team on the field. looks like we've secured that coveted distinction for '18

are we allergic to players on the upside of their career?

sf giants.... sponsored by sun city retirement homes

 

[calsnowskier]

Can't you see Cutch in LF with his dreds going on? I'm liking it.

Who has the better dreds, Cutch or Cueto?

 

[stanford the manford]

Who has the better dreds, Cutch or Cueto?

if you havent attended in person when cueto is on the mound, you may not have noticed. on the right field wall they post the number of K's with some manual signs - either K or a reverse K

when cueto is pitching, the K placards have dreds around them... kinda fun and cueto usually acknowledges the right field K guys when he leaves the game

 

[SFGRTB]

God the qualifying offer system is so stupid.

If small market teams are too afraid to spend money, and big market teams are afraid to lose draft picks, this is the type of environment you get.

I'm still completely opposed to signing Cain. Would still rather go with Dyson.

edit: Austin Pence McParker - LF
Dyson - CF
McCutchen - RF

Panik
Cutch
Posey
Longo
Belt
Pence
Dyson
Crawford

 

[SFGRTB]

 

[SFGRTB]

Underrated aspect: Giants can QO Cutch next season and get back a portion of what they lost.

 

[SFGRTB]

Also this is actually a decent way of looking at it:

 

[stanford the manford]

Also this is actually a decent way of looking at it:

alex expects us to compete in '18??? i guess it could happen, but coming off a 95 loss season when we had no power, bully, speed, or defense and we add 2 players (formally great) in the sunset of their career doesn't signal a return to competitiveness....

 

[SFGRTB]

alex expects us to compete in '18??? i guess it could happen, but coming off a 95 loss season when we had no power, bully, speed, or defense and we add 2 players (formally great) in the sunset of their career doesn't signal a return to competitiveness....

The tweet clearly indicates "who knows if it'll work"

Also pretty much everything that could go wrong last year did. It's reasonable to expect bounce backs from a few guys. I'd say the Giants are probably a 83-85 win team right now.

Look we're all for a pure rebuild but we know that's just not gonna happen. So the Giants went out and retooled and really didn't give up that much. They lost Arroyo, Crick and Reynolds. The Giants went out and got exciting players though, guys that are easy to root for.

Arroyo stings but Panik is a proven ML version of the same player. Julian Fernandez is a younger version of Crick. Jury is out on Reynolds but the Giants saw a position that was "somewhat" of strength in their minors and dealt from it. He's replaceable.

Now if the Giants start going out and trading the bigger names, or giving up the 2nd and 5th picks, I'll get mad. But this is so far is actually pretty solid.

 

[stanford the manford]

The tweet clearly indicates "who knows if it'll work"

Also pretty much everything that could go wrong last year did. It's reasonable to expect bounce backs from a few guys. I'd say the Giants are probably a 83-85 win team right now.

Look we're all for a pure rebuild but we know that's just not gonna happen. So the Giants went out and retooled and really didn't give up that much. They lost Arroyo, Crick and Reynolds. The Giants went out and got exciting players though, guys that are easy to root for.

Arroyo stings but Panik is a proven ML version of the same player. Julian Fernandez is a younger version of Crick. Jury is out on Reynolds but the Giants saw a position that was "somewhat" of strength in their minors and dealt from it. He's replaceable.

Now if the Giants start going out and trading the bigger names, or giving up the 2nd and 5th picks, I'll get mad. But this is so far is actually pretty solid.

i just don't see the excitement..... 2012 and i'd be excited about Longoria and Cutch.... 2018, not so much. TBH some of my favorite players, but bringing them at this side of their career is grasping at straws imo.

If we are talking about exciting, Arroyo had fan's attention every play. Sure he didn't deliver all the time, but there was the potential. Thats what brings fans to the ball park

 

[SFGRTB]

i just don't see the excitement..... 2012 and i'd be excited about Longoria and Cutch.... 2018, not so much. TBH some of my favorite players, but bringing them at this side of their career is grasping at straws imo.

If we are talking about exciting, Arroyo had fan's attention every play. Sure he didn't deliver all the time, but there was the potential. Thats what brings fans to the ball park

I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying that Cutch and Longoria will put more butts in the seats and eyes on the tube than Arroyo will. You can only sell fans on potential for so long, and when that potential shows some holes it gets even tougher. Plus fans online were already turning on the kid. Those fans certainly don't represent the majority, but people tend to have a lack of patience. Winning brings fans to the yard and Cutch and Longoria provide that (how many? We'll see).

I'm huge into the prospects, I get overtly excited when these kids come up after years of following their development. But the fan base, and other fan bases, will tune in more often to see how the Giants are faring with the star power they brought aboard.

Another way to look at it: the reckoning is coming. Whether it's 2019/2020 or whenever, it's coming. The F.O. knows this, everyone knows. But right now the team is built to win. They can't sell off any pieces now (would be selling way low on everyone except Panik and Posey), so why not give it a shot and see what happens? They didn't seemingly give up much in the way of their future but they're better suited to compete now on a team that was built to complete (whether they actually win some games remains in question). They guys they didn't go after, the Yelich, the Ozuna, the Santana etc., the younger hitters that are available arguably would have been worse because they would have sold their future but their future is doomed anyway. This way, adding older players that cost less prospect capital, arguably sets them up better long term. At least when the reckoning comes they'll have some young guys to bring in right away instead of being forced to acquire all new young players.

In a weird way, to me at least, this move validates that the Giants are fully aware of their situation. They know the dark years are coming. Why not milk every once of this core while you can, without mortgaging the future? The moves they have made have followed that pattern.

 

[calsnowskier]

I was a huge proponent of the tear down and rebuild strategy. But that was not the path the PsTB chose to follow.

And they have done a MASTERFUL job of following THEIR path. I have to echo sfgrtb’s thought here. Giving up Arroyo, Woods, Crick, Reynolds, Krook and Span for Longoria and McCutchen is a very nice trade.

Arroyo is a top(ish) prospect who has lost some luster.

Woods and Krook are lottery tickets.

Crick is a painful loss, but at the end of the day, he is a 7th or 8th inning reliever with control issues. Let’s just pretend he is not Joe Nathan 2.0.

Reynolds is a guy I have never been sold on. Maybe he becomes a serviceable MLB OFer, but I don’t see him as much more than a dime-a-dozen type guy.

Span is addition by subtraction.

And as sfgrtb pointed out, the tear-down can still happen in ‘19 or ‘20.

Bravo, Evans. Bravo.

 

[stanford the manford]

glad you guys are excited.

i'm not rejecting evan/andrew for christian/woods/kyle, reynolds/krook is bad on the surface. but we'll be a .500 team in '18 and these trades do nothing to help in '19, 00, and on.

i've been an advocate of tear down and rebuild for over 2yrs. we're obviously in curad phase with the fo. don't kid yourself with the 'ticket' sales vs enthusiasm. for the 1st time since we've move to att our row (lower box) was 'sold' but empty. there was no secondary market for seats. it's take a garoppolo type of roster move to turn things. no one's turning out to see cutch and evan in their twilight years unless they are from pitts or tb.

if we go on a league leading win streak or lead the nlw at asb - sure things will change. don't see it, but i'll be rooting for it to happen

i want to see another competitive team in sf before i kick - none of these trades move their timetable up to mesh with mine

 

[LHG]

I was a huge proponent of the tear down and rebuild strategy. But that was not the path the PsTB chose to follow.

And they have done a MASTERFUL job of following THEIR path. I have to echo sfgrtb’s thought here. Giving up Arroyo, Woods, Crick, Reynolds, Krook and Span for Longoria and McCutchen is a very nice trade.

Arroyo is a top(ish) prospect who has lost some luster.

Woods and Krook are lottery tickets.

Crick is a painful loss, but at the end of the day, he is a 7th or 8th inning reliever with control issues. Let’s just pretend he is not Joe Nathan 2.0.

Reynolds is a guy I have never been sold on. Maybe he becomes a serviceable MLB OFer, but I don’t see him as much more than a dime-a-dozen type guy.

Span is addition by subtraction.

And as sfgrtb pointed out, the tear-down can still happen in ‘19 or ‘20.

Bravo, Evans. Bravo.

I like the McCutchen trade a lot more than the Longoria trade. I feel like the Giants gave up more for Longoria and his bat scares me. McCutchen will be easier to cut bait if it doesn't work out and the prospects were as much or (in my opinion) as valuable than the Longoria trade. I'm actually pretty excited about McCutchen on the team but it does doom some of my favorite current players, either/both Parker and Williamson. I do wonder, if the Giants pick up a center fielder (Cain, Dyson, or someone else) does that make Hernandez' spot on the roster less secure?

 

[calsnowskier]

Fangraphs has us at 85-77 in ‘18. I might actually take the over on an 85 OU bet.

Posey
Belt
Panik
Crawford
Longoria
McCutchen

Bumgarner
Cueto
Samardzija

Melancon
Smith
Dyson

These are all above average or better players at what they do. That is a decent core.

The tear down is coming, just not right now.

 

[SFGRTB]

glad you guys are excited.

i'm not rejecting evan/andrew for christian/woods/kyle, reynolds/krook is bad on the surface. but we'll be a .500 team in '18 and these trades do nothing to help in '19, 00, and on.

i've been an advocate of tear down and rebuild for over 2yrs. we're obviously in curad phase with the fo. don't kid yourself with the 'ticket' sales vs enthusiasm. for the 1st time since we've move to att our row (lower box) was 'sold' but empty. there was no secondary market for seats. it's take a garoppolo type of roster move to turn things. no one's turning out to see cutch and evan in their twilight years unless they are from pitts or tb.

if we go on a league leading win streak or lead the nlw at asb - sure things will change. don't see it, but i'll be rooting for it to happen

i want to see another competitive team in sf before i kick - none of these trades move their timetable up to mesh with mine

I think you're missing my point.

The Giants were going to stink next year in the state they were going into the offseason, we all agree there. Ignoring the fact that a tear down wasn't going to happen for a second, a tear down at that time would have been tough given the major trade pieces (Bum, Belt, Crawford, Samardjza, Melancon, Cueto, Smith, Moore, Span) all had certain amount of flaws or baggage that made them either untradeable or massively undervalued. The Giants would have gone through a rebuild but sold their best pieces for pennies, and likely prolonged a true rebuild. At the very least the risk would have been higher and margin for error slimmer.

So now taking real life decisions into account, basically the Giants looked at the situation and believed that they weren't going to improve their situation all that much better for the future by trading any of these guys now, so why not try to bolster this group and give it one last go without sacrificing the future. And I tend to agree with them. The Giants didn't really shift the timeline here. The timeline is still the same as it always was, but now they have a better chance to compete in the short term, while still maintaining the long term (which is still bleak).

The Garoppolo move would have been a Yelich or something, but that type of move would actually have moved the timeline because the Giants would have been worse off in the future by selling all their other youth pieces, then when the current core moves on we would be stuck with middle-aged Yelich and nothing else, prolonging the rebuild.

Also I don't care about tix sales it was just brought up so I made that point as an aside. Ticket sales don't really matter to me in fact if would be nice if people stopped paying so much for tickets so the prices could come down.

 

[stanford the manford]

I think you're missing my point.

The Giants were going to stink next year in the state they were going into the offseason, we all agree there. Ignoring the fact that a tear down wasn't going to happen for a second, a tear down at that time would have been tough given the major trade pieces (Bum, Belt, Crawford, Samardjza, Melancon, Cueto, Smith, Moore, Span) all had certain amount of flaws or baggage that made them either untradeable or massively undervalued. The Giants would have gone through a rebuild but sold their best pieces for pennies, and likely prolonged a true rebuild. At the very least the risk would have been higher and margin for error slimmer.

So now taking real life decisions into account, basically the Giants looked at the situation and believed that they weren't going to improve their situation all that much better for the future by trading any of these guys now, so why not try to bolster this group and give it one last go without sacrificing the future. And I tend to agree with them. The Giants didn't really shift the timeline here. The timeline is still the same as it always was, but now they have a better chance to compete in the short term, while still maintaining the long term (which is still bleak).

The Garoppolo move would have been a Yelich or something, but that type of move would actually have moved the timeline because the Giants would have been worse off in the future by selling all their other youth pieces, then when the current core moves on we would be stuck with middle-aged Yelich and nothing else, prolonging the rebuild.

Also I don't care about tix sales it was just brought up so I made that point as an aside. Ticket sales don't really matter to me in fact if would be nice if people stopped paying so much for tickets so the prices could come down.

fan attendance is the best measure of team support. this was the first season since the 2k move to att where i've seen declining butts-in-the-seats. we're not the a's, but you want to turn the trajectory. maybe they'll catch lightening in a bottle this year and rekindle interest. hopefully that's the case

i agree the major trade pieces are undervalued, but i believe 2 things are true -
- their value won't increase in the next few years
- we won't be competitive in the next few years

so, imo, the fo is hanging on to continuing devalued assets.... at some point that value will go to zero. with a fixed roster they represent a growing negative opportunity cost which, again imo, is a bad situation.

the longer you prolong to improve, the longer it takes to improve

 

[SFGRTB]

fan attendance is the best measure of team support. this was the first season since the 2k move to att where i've seen declining butts-in-the-seats. we're not the a's, but you want to turn the trajectory. maybe they'll catch lightening in a bottle this year and rekindle interest. hopefully that's the case

i agree the major trade pieces are undervalued, but i believe 2 things are true -
- their value won't increase in the next few years
- we won't be competitive in the next few years

so, imo, the fo is hanging on to continuing devalued assets.... at some point that value will go to zero. with a fixed roster they represent a growing negative opportunity cost which, again imo, is a bad situation.

the longer you prolong to improve, the longer it takes to improve

Hopefully the Giants are in a position to win, but if they're not hopefully it's not because of guys like Bum, Belt, Melancon, Smith etc. so the Giants are able to sell off guys with reestablished value simply by being on the field. I think if this team is a disaster by next June they'll blow it all up. The tax bill isn't calculated until September so if the Giants see that it's a hopeless situation they will get out of it. But there's no reason not to try in the interim to see if some assets improve value, which looks reasonable.

That's all I'm trying to say here. The Giants are putting themselves in a competitive position without moving the future timeline. They can "opt-out" of this, per-say, and accelerate the timeline easily, but these moves don't delay it IMO. Trading guys like Bum and Belt right now don't make sense.

 

[stanford the manford]

Hopefully the Giants are in a position to win, but if they're not hopefully it's not because of guys like Bum, Belt, Melancon, Smith etc. so the Giants are able to sell off guys with reestablished value simply by being on the field. I think if this team is a disaster by next June they'll blow it all up. The tax bill isn't calculated until September so if the Giants see that it's a hopeless situation they will get out of it. But there's no reason not to try in the interim to see if some assets improve value, which looks reasonable.

That's all I'm trying to say here. The Giants are putting themselves in a competitive position without moving the future timeline. They can "opt-out" of this, per-say, and accelerate the timeline easily, but these moves don't delay it IMO. Trading guys like Bum and Belt right now don't make sense.

the opt-out clause is a good point that i failed to take into consideration..... just hope the fo share's the same 'engagement vs marriage' view

 

[SFGRTB]

the opt-out clause is a good point that i failed to take into consideration..... just hope the fo share's the same 'engagement vs marriage' view

Admittedly it's true that I don't have a voice in the Giants plans

Perhaps I'm doing these mental hurdles to justify them not rebuilding. But I think it makes reasonable sense.

As LGH mentioned the Longoria move certainly hurts more as his long-term contract changes things, but the Rays are paying quite a lot of it as well so it's really not a huge burden, and Cutch is a one-year deal where the Giants can get value out of trading him as a rental, getting compensated as a QO or signing him long term without giving up additional prospects.

Now if the Giants go out and sign Cain then all of this can be deleted. But given their comments all offseason that seems very very very unlikely. So far they've moved about according to plan.