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2018 Roster Expectations

LHG

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Not only would we need to win approx 87 games, we would need to do it while not getting reinforcements at the deadline. Well, unless we want to deal Ramos, that is.
And if the FO spends up to the threshold now, any additions would bump them over. Not sure how the org would handle that come July. Guess it depends on how close the team is to contention and how comfortable the ownership is paying a tax penalty.
 

LHG

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The Giants are still being linked with Billy Hamilton and the reportedly still talking to the Reds about a trade. Apparently, the Reds want Heliot Ramos in that deal. I really hope they don't do that. I'd rather see Steven Duggar rushed to the big club.
 

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The Giants are still being linked with Billy Hamilton and the reportedly still talking to the Reds about a trade. Apparently, the Reds want Heliot Ramos in that deal. I really hope they don't do that. I'd rather see Steven Duggar rushed to the big club.

Hoping the fact that nothings happened yet indicates the Giants aren't interested in that at all.

Jarrod Dyson+Gorkys Hernandez or Austin Jackson+Duggar would probably provide just as good of value without giving up prospects.

Hamilton is slated to make $5M in arb. The problem is probably Dyson or Jackson pushes the Giants over the tax line, assuming they sign Bruce or someone else for the corner OF.
 

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Hoping the fact that nothings happened yet indicates the Giants aren't interested in that at all.

Jarrod Dyson+Gorkys Hernandez or Austin Jackson+Duggar would probably provide just as good of value without giving up prospects.

Hamilton is slated to make $5M in arb. The problem is probably Dyson or Jackson pushes the Giants over the tax line, assuming they sign Bruce or someone else for the corner OF.
I have not heard anything, just spitballing here...

Maybe the Giants are trying to pawn Pence off in this deal and Cincy is the balking party. If that is the case, though, I fear that Ramos would be included...

Ramos & Pence

For

Hamilton
 

Sandisfan

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No please.... even moving Pence as a negative...relatively....Ramos may be the best outfield prospect/project the Giants have had in decades.....not saying he will be THE guy but he a has fairly reasonable chance to be THE guy.
 

LHG

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Hoping the fact that nothings happened yet indicates the Giants aren't interested in that at all.

Jarrod Dyson+Gorkys Hernandez or Austin Jackson+Duggar would probably provide just as good of value without giving up prospects.

Hamilton is slated to make $5M in arb. The problem is probably Dyson or Jackson pushes the Giants over the tax line, assuming they sign Bruce or someone else for the corner OF.
I don't know if the persistent rumors are because the two teams do indeed continue to talk, one of the teams really wants the trade to happen or that the writers are in need of stories, but the rumor refuses to die. As long as it stays at the rumor level, I'm fine with continuing to hear about the trade. However, considering the team's need, I don't think they need to acquire someone with that typing of hitting for elite defense.
 

LHG

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I have not heard anything, just spitballing here...

Maybe the Giants are trying to pawn Pence off in this deal and Cincy is the balking party. If that is the case, though, I fear that Ramos would be included...

Ramos & Pence

For

Hamilton
The Reds want to clear room in their outfield for one of their prospects, they don't want another outfielder and they are not going to do the same thing that the Dodgers would be willing to do with Matt Kemp. Plus, with Kemp and possibly Span already on the outfield salary dump trading block, it will be harder for the Reds to flip Pence. I would think, in order for the Reds to take Pence, the Giants are going to have to trade Beede and Ramos as well.
 

LHG

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Here's another post on MLB Trade Rumors linking the Giants to numerous outfielders. Heyman's Latest: Nats, Yelich, Giants, Napoli
The name I haven't seen mentioned much is Carlos Gonzalez. That would be a huge mistake. His home/road splits last year are huge (OPS - .923 at home, .606 on the road). The previous two years aren't nearly as bad but they are still between .150 and .200 points different. The year before those (2014) are even more dramatic than 2017. His AT&T slash is .233/.284/.363 for his career. Oh, and his agent is Scott Boras. Hopefully, the Giants don't go that route.
 

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OK, it's winter, so I'm throwing an out of the box idea out there, and it doesn't involve moving Posey to 3B.

Saw this on Heyman's Latest: Nats, Yelich, Giants, Napoli

Numerous teams are obviously preparing to pursue Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, who the Fish are reportedly increasingly willing to deal. Just how likely is a deal? Heyman cites a few sources who describe the situation as one in which the club is making Yelich and teammate J.T. Realmuto available in talks. Among the organizations with some level of interest in Yelich, per Heyman, are the Diamondbacks, Braves, and Giants. No doubt there are plenty of others, too, that will line up for both players.​

J.T. Realmuto Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

RHH, with some pop (17 HRs last year, 3.6 oWAR). First year arb eligible in 2018, so we'd have some control. Decent glove, too (+2.1 dWAR in three years).

Make him the primary C, move Posey to 1B, Belt to the OF.

Might be a plausible strategy if no good OF deal comes around.
 

LHG

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OK, it's winter, so I'm throwing an out of the box idea out there, and it doesn't involve moving Posey to 3B.

Saw this on Heyman's Latest: Nats, Yelich, Giants, Napoli

Numerous teams are obviously preparing to pursue Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, who the Fish are reportedly increasingly willing to deal. Just how likely is a deal? Heyman cites a few sources who describe the situation as one in which the club is making Yelich and teammate J.T. Realmuto available in talks. Among the organizations with some level of interest in Yelich, per Heyman, are the Diamondbacks, Braves, and Giants. No doubt there are plenty of others, too, that will line up for both players.​

J.T. Realmuto Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

RHH, with some pop (17 HRs last year, 3.6 oWAR). First year arb eligible in 2018, so we'd have some control. Decent glove, too (+2.1 dWAR in three years).

Make him the primary C, move Posey to 1B, Belt to the OF.

Might be a plausible strategy if no good OF deal comes around.
Interesting idea. However, he's going to cost quite a bit to get. The Marlins say that they want prospects and because he is so cheap, they aren't going to be feeling the need to move him like Ozuna, Gordon or Stanton were moved. The cost would be steep. However, if the Giants go the trade route to fill in their remaining holes (in order to fit within the threshold) then we need to prepare for a farm system bloodbath.
 

LHG

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It would seem, at least based on some rumblings at the end of the regular season, that the Giants wanted to add another left-handed reliever to go along with Will Smith in the bullpen. However, there are not a lot of choices on the free agent market. Here are the 11 left-handed relievers left, in order of how I would rank them:
1. Tony Watson - Watson, who will turn 33 a month into the 2018 season, has had a very solid career, spanning all the way from 2011. He has a sparkling career ERA (2.68), WHIP (1.086) and HR/9 (0.9). He has been durable, throwing in no less than 67 games since his rookie season, and has been fairly predictable in his results from year to year. Righties have a career .661, while lefites have a paltry .574, so he would be a good addition simply as a reliever. The only concerns I would have is the length of his contract (due to age), whether his durability will suddenly disappear due to heavy use and if his 1st half of 2017 was a blip (the numbers were down for him, compared to other years). However, I think those concerns are minor. Definitely, my favorite to see signed.
2. Xavier Cedeno - The youngest of the group (31), Cedeno has had an up and down career so far. He debuted in 2011 with Houston and had his best season in 2015, after going over to Tampa from Washington (2.35, 1.174, 9.2). However, outside of that season, his numbers haven't been that great. Most of that is due to his left/right splits. Righties have hit him to a tune of .301/.374/.470 but lefties struggle with a .226/.286/.299 against him. He was non-tendered by the Rays after missing most of the season due to an injury. I wouldn't mind bringing him in to spring training with a minor league deal. As long as he is used strictly as a LOOGY, he would be worth a shot.
3. Boone Logan - I thought very highly of his last year, considering how well he pitched with Coors Field as his home stadium in 2016. The shine wore off considerably after a rather poor showing with Cleveland in 2017 (4.71, 1.381). In fact, his 2017 numbers more closely matched what he did in 2014 and 2015. He never looked good in Chicago and bookend two mediocre years with two good years in New York. Simply put, I think he is overrated. He may be worth an add if it was a deal of the minor league variety or a cheap one year deal, if as a LOOGY. His lefty numbers (.234/.311/.361) are a lot better than his right numbers (.292/.373/.472). Maybe his career is skewed considering where he's called home throughout his career, but I think it would be good to see how the market shakes out before considering him.
4. Zach Duke - A failed starter, Duke wasn't converted to relief work until 2011 (after debuting with Pittsburgh in 2005). However, he didn't much success until 2014 with Milwaukee. Since then, he's had two good years (2014 and 2016) and two okay years (2015 and 2017). His 2017 numbers with Saint Louis are a mixed bag. His HR/9 (1.5) and ERA (3.93) were a bit high but his WHIP (1.036) suggests that if he had pitched more in 2017 that his ERA may have gone down (he only got in 27 games due to Tommy John surgery in 2016). His career lefty numbers are okay (.701 career OPS) but I assume that it would be better as a reliever (I cannot find the numbers strictly for relief). He actually pitched better against righties in 2017 than he did against lefites (.628 vs .661 OPS), so that suggests he wouldn't need to be a strict LOOGY. For the right price, he may be worth a one or two year deal, but age, health and inconsistency are all issues to consider.
5. Fernando Abad - The 2nd youngest of the group (32), Abad has had more success than Cedeno in the big leagues. Yet, his last good major league season was in 2014 with the A's (but did have a good half season with the Twins in 2016). His lefty/righty career splits aren't too far apart (.750 vs righties, .671 vs lefties), so he wouldn't need to be used as a strict LOOGY. His career K rate (7.7) is okay but his WHIP (1.300) leaves something to be desired. If we have to sign him, I'd be okay if it was a minor league deal, maybe.
6. Brian Duensing - Fresh off a one year run with the Cubs, Duensing had the 2nd best year of his career with them, posting a solid 2.74 ERA, 1.219 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. However, his numbers the past 6 seasons have been far less stellar. His career ERA (4.01), WHIP (1.367) and K/9 (6.2) suggest that regression will happen in 2018. Another good LOOGY possibility, his lefty numbers look good (.239/.288/333) while the right numbers look awful (.288/.349/.454) on his career. His success in 2017 can at least be partially attributed to somehow fooling right handed hitters in 2017 (.237/.307/.360) while keeping his left handed numbers close to his career average (except slugging went up to .381). Considering his age (35 at opening day) and the type of contract he'll want due to 2017, I say pass.
7. Jorge de la Rosa - Often the closest thing the Rockies had to an ace in his time with them (2007-2016), when healthy, the Diamondbacks picked him up in 2017 and moved him to the bullpen, doubling the amount of relief appearances in his career (with most of them coming back in 2004 and 2005 with the Brewers). He did do well against lefties in 2017 (.194/.253/.292), he may be worth it as a LOOGY but considering he will be 37 to start the 2018 season, I'd say pass, unless he comes in with a minor league deal.
8. Francisco Liriano - Now here seems like a possibility, if only because the Giants have a certain fondness for bringing guys back into the fold toward the end of their careers, especially when the team seems intent in just filling out the roster. Liriano, before 2017, made all of 29 relief appearances, dating back to 2005. Now 34 years old, he was converted to a relief pitcher when Houston acquired him for the stretch run. He was not very good. He posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.674 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9. However, lefties did hit just .247/.300/.355 against him on the year. So he may be useful as a LOOGY. Yet, I would guess that he would prefer to go back to being a started. If not, teams may want to use him as a long reliever. I say pass.
9. Oliver Perez - Once upon a time, this guy was a hot shot left handed starting prospect in the Padres' organization. He never did well as a starter and got converted to a reliever in 2010 by the Mets. He did post a couple of good seasons with the Mariners in a comeback 2012 season and again with the Diamondbacks in 2014, he has been less than good since then. The guy survives in the league due to his fastball and his throwing arm. Pass.
10. Craig Breslow - A 37 year old reliever, he hasn't been good since his phenomenal 2013 season with the Red Sox. He's been knocked around since then in stints with the Red Sox, Marlins, Twins and Indians. The Giants need to pass on him. Osich and Okert would probably be better.
11. Glen Perkins - I won't take much time to do a write up on him. A solid lefty from 2011 to 2013, Perkins has only appeared in 10 big league games the past two years. A free agent after the Twins declined his 2018 option, it has been reported that he does not want to pitch with any other organization and would probably retire if the Twins don't bring him back. At 35 years old at opening day 2018, he is probably done with his career.
With Zach Duke signing a one year with the Twins (which would have been what I was comfortable with the Giants doing), there is only 10 left handed relievers on the market (9 really, with Perkins certain to retire). Here's my updated rankings:
1. Watson
2. Cedeno
3. Logan
4. Abad
5. Duensing
6. de la Rosa
7. Liriano
8. Perez
9. Breslow
10. Perkins
Actually, there is an 11th left handed reliever available, Travis Wood. He got released by the Padres last month. He'd probably slot in to number 7 or 8 on my list.
 

LHG

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LHG

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I would be thrilled with that signing.
I wouldn't mind signing Bruce if it was that short of a deal. I think anything over 2 years is asking for trouble. The amount is still too high, in my opinion, considering his defensive and on base shortcomings (and how he cannot handle lefties) but length is a bit more important than amount (to me, anyway).
 

calsnowskier

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I wouldn't mind signing Bruce if it was that short of a deal. I think anything over 2 years is asking for trouble. The amount is still too high, in my opinion, considering his defensive and on base shortcomings (and how he cannot handle lefties) but length is a bit more important than amount (to me, anyway).
Well, sure. I would love to sign him to a 1/5, but that ain’t happening. A 2/30 is very reasonable, and would only require about 3.2 WAR over the two years to be a good contract.
 

LHG

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Well, sure. I would love to sign him to a 1/5, but that ain’t happening. A 2/30 is very reasonable, and would only require about 3.2 WAR over the two years to be a good contract.
I wasn't thinking 5 million but 15 million does seem like a bit much. Considering his last 5 seasons have produced WARs (Baseball Reference with Fangraphs in parenthesis) of 5.3 (4.2), -1.1 (-0.8), 0.8 (0.2), 0.6 (0.9) and 2.9 (2.7), with his 2013 season being an obvious outlier, produced as Cincinnati as the home team, I don't think he'll hit that mark you suggest to make the contract good. More likely, his 2 year WAR is going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.6 to 2.
 

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I wouldn't mind signing Bruce if it was that short of a deal. I think anything over 2 years is asking for trouble. The amount is still too high, in my opinion, considering his defensive and on base shortcomings (and how he cannot handle lefties) but length is a bit more important than amount (to me, anyway).

I think his defense is actually OK. I think he gets a bad rap for it, but he's solidly just under average. Admittedly RF in AT&T could be rough.

Also he handles lefties okay as well. His first two years he was terrible versus lefties which skew his numbers.

.312 SLG, .597 OPS, 57 wRC+

But since then (2010) he's held his own, especially for power.

.440 SLG, .733 OPS, 96 wRC+

Not great, but hanging in there.

His OBP will never be terrific because of his batting average and because he likes to swing and hit homeruns. But he has actually always had a solid BB rate, hovering around 10%, and he generally sees a good amount of pitches per plate appearance. Last year he ranked 66th in baseball in that category and would have ranked 2nd on the Giants. (edit: 3rd, just realized Belt didn't qualify)

The more I've thought about Bruce lately the most I actually kinda like the idea of him. But again only at like 2-3 years. I think I'd go 3 years. But nothing more.
 
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LHG

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I think his defense is actually OK. I think he gets a bad rap for it, but he's solidly just under average. Admittedly RF in AT&T could be rough.

Also he handles lefties okay as well. His first two years he was terrible versus lefties which skew his numbers.

.312 SLG, .597 OPS, 57 wRC+

But since then (2010) he's held his own, especially for power.

.440 SLG, .733 OPS, 96 wRC+

Not great, but hanging in there.

His OBP will never be terrific because of his batting average and because he likes to swing and hit homeruns. But he has actually always had a solid BB rate, hovering around 10%, and he generally sees a good amount of pitches per plate appearance. Last year he ranked 66th in baseball in that category and would have ranked 2nd on the Giants. (edit: 3rd, just realized Belt didn't qualify)

The more I've thought about Bruce lately the most I actually kinda like the idea of him. But again only at like 2-3 years. I think I'd go 3 years. But nothing more.
His slash against lefties in 2017 was not that good - .222/.285/.433. It was even worse in 2016 - .222/.266/.411. In fact, his slash against lefties was mediocre to bad in 2015 and 2014 as well. The numbers you mentioned since 2010 look an awful lot like what he did in 2013. I don't see someone who hits lefties decently.

I don't know how accurate defensive WAR is on Baseball Reference but they give him a 0 in 2017, -1.8 in 2016, -0.2 in 2015, -1.7 in 2014, and 1.1 in 2013. Other than 2013, he only seems to grade out as average when he played in New York.

My concern that I didn't mention previously is, would his power translate at AT&T but I do notice that he has a .526 slugging in 31 games at AT&T, so that probably wouldn't suffer with SF his home park.
 

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His slash against lefties in 2017 was not that good - .222/.285/.433. It was even worse in 2016 - .222/.266/.411. In fact, his slash against lefties was mediocre to bad in 2015 and 2014 as well. The numbers you mentioned since 2010 look an awful lot like what he did in 2013. I don't see someone who hits lefties decently.

I don't know how accurate defensive WAR is on Baseball Reference but they give him a 0 in 2017, -1.8 in 2016, -0.2 in 2015, -1.7 in 2014, and 1.1 in 2013. Other than 2013, he only seems to grade out as average when he played in New York.

My concern that I didn't mention previously is, would his power translate at AT&T but I do notice that he has a .526 slugging in 31 games at AT&T, so that probably wouldn't suffer with SF his home park.

Bruce is a power hitter and had a solid SLG% and ISO versus lefties. He's not a BA guy in any scenario. As a power hitter he hung in there versus lefties. His only truly terrible year versus lefties since 2009 was in 2014. Other than that year he's been okay. The .440 SLG, .733 OPS, 96 wRC+ is collectively since 2010, and that's basically the definition of an average power hitter.

All I'm saying there is that he hangs in there. He's playable versus lefties, in general.

As for his defense, Pence has been -0.8, -0.8, -0.3, -1.2, -1.7, -0.6 in the same time span. I don't think Bruce is good out there but he's not going to kill you is what I'm trying to get at. The numbers all over the board with him to be honest. SABR, which I personally trust a decent amount, ranked him favorably. He seems to take good routes to balls..... the biggest problem is his foot speed. He's pretty slow out there. They'd really have to get someone in CF to cover for triples alley.
 

calsnowskier

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So if we were to sign Bruce, does he play right, or do we go with Hunter McParker in right?
 
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