2018 Roster Expectations

[LHG]

The lastest name in the rumor mill is Scott Feldman, which fills that scenario just as "well"

 

[LHG]

Based off of Baggs' recent findings, it seems like Cots Baseball Contracts is on top of the luxury tax counter and roster resource isn't (edit- did not expect the site to post the entire spreadsheet, wonder if this auto updates?):

Good to know. I like how Cots has Miguel Gomez still listed as a catcher.

 

[SFGRTB]

Good to know. I like how Cots has Miguel Gomez still listed as a catcher.

I guess he technically has the most innings as a catcher in the minors. Maybe their media guide is out of date.

 

[LHG]

I guess he technically has the most innings as a catcher in the minors. Maybe their media guide is out of date.

Looks like its just out of date. I looked up his positions by games and 2nd base has 96 compared to catcher at 93. By innings, 3rd base (772) and 2nd base (764) both have catcher (731) beat.

 

[SFGRTB]

 

[LHG]

This from the Yahoo article on the trade (Giants acquire Evan Longoria from Rays for 4 players):
Longoria had $86 million in remaining guaranteed salary and buyout as part of a contract that runs through 2022 and contains a 2023 club option. The $9.5 million in deferred money included in that total was converted to an assignment bonus payable by the Rays from 2025-29. Tampa Bay will give the Giants $2 million by this Dec. 31 to cover Longoria's assignment bonus and an additional $3 million by Oct. 31, 2022.

MLB Trade Rumors breaks it down like this:
. . . The Rays will pay $14.5MM to the Giants and are responsible to the $13MM that is yet owed to Span. Specifically, the Rays will pay $2MM to the Giants by the end of 2017 to cover Longoria’s $2MM trade bonus, and they’ll also pay another $3MM by Oct. 31, 2022. The remaining $9.5MM, per the AP report, will be deferred in payments from 2025-29.

In essence, then, the Giants are adding $60.5MM to their long-term ledger in order to acquire the final five years of Longoria’s contract. Moreover, it doesn’t appear that San Francisco will take much of a hit at all in terms of the luxury tax. So, when paired with the shedding of Matt Moore’s contract, the move should afford the team ample opportunity to add at least one outfielder on a multi-year deal while remaining comfortably south of the $197MM luxury tax threshold.

All this and still I'm not sure how much of his contract will count toward 2018 and whether the Giants are "comfortably south" of the threshold.

 

[SFGRTB]

This from the Yahoo article on the trade (Giants acquire Evan Longoria from Rays for 4 players):
Longoria had $86 million in remaining guaranteed salary and buyout as part of a contract that runs through 2022 and contains a 2023 club option. The $9.5 million in deferred money included in that total was converted to an assignment bonus payable by the Rays from 2025-29. Tampa Bay will give the Giants $2 million by this Dec. 31 to cover Longoria's assignment bonus and an additional $3 million by Oct. 31, 2022.

MLB Trade Rumors breaks it down like this:
. . . The Rays will pay $14.5MM to the Giants and are responsible to the $13MM that is yet owed to Span. Specifically, the Rays will pay $2MM to the Giants by the end of 2017 to cover Longoria’s $2MM trade bonus, and they’ll also pay another $3MM by Oct. 31, 2022. The remaining $9.5MM, per the AP report, will be deferred in payments from 2025-29.

In essence, then, the Giants are adding $60.5MM to their long-term ledger in order to acquire the final five years of Longoria’s contract. Moreover, it doesn’t appear that San Francisco will take much of a hit at all in terms of the luxury tax. So, when paired with the shedding of Matt Moore’s contract, the move should afford the team ample opportunity to add at least one outfielder on a multi-year deal while remaining comfortably south of the $197MM luxury tax threshold.

All this and still I'm not sure how much of his contract will count toward 2018 and whether the Giants are "comfortably south" of the threshold.

I think it's going to be about $15M that they're under after this deal, thanks to a lot of loop holes that we just don't have access to confirming because their buried deep in contracts and negotiations.

But I'll take Evans' word, and some good detective work from Baggs, that this will be able net-neutral tax wise.

 

[LHG]

I think it's going to be about $15M that they're under after this deal, thanks to a lot of loop holes that we just don't have access to confirming because their buried deep in contracts and negotiations.

But I'll take Evans' word, and some good detective work from Baggs, that this will be able net-neutral tax wise.

Hopefully, with something that complicated, they've got it figured out correctly.

So, as I understand it, the Giants have $15M to spend on one to two outfielders, a starting pitcher and a left handed reliever. Will they go right up to the threshold or will they try to keep some saved for the trade deadline?

 

[LHG]

Another outfielder to put in the Giants' rumor mill. This one, however, seems to be pure speculation and nothing much will probably happen. He's owed just over $21M for the next three years plus a team option for 2021 right at $21M. Heyman | Are Giants Logical Trade Destination For Jacoby Ellsbury?

 

[calsnowskier]

Another outfielder to put in the Giants' rumor mill. This one, however, seems to be pure speculation and nothing much will probably happen. He's owed just over $21M for the next three years plus a team option for 2021 right at $21M. Heyman | Are Giants Logical Trade Destination For Jacoby Ellsbury?

This makes no sense unless the Yanks are sending at least 2 of their Uber-prospects along with, and even then, ain’t happening.

This is a national rumor because it helps the Yank Sox.

 

[Stokes1931]

Another outfielder to put in the Giants' rumor mill. This one, however, seems to be pure speculation and nothing much will probably happen. He's owed just over $21M for the next three years plus a team option for 2021 right at $21M. Heyman | Are Giants Logical Trade Destination For Jacoby Ellsbury?

That's a hard pass.

What part of "younger and more athletic" do these writers not understand?

Still, makes a little sense as the Giants have been known to kick the tires on classic, er, legacy, er, older players.

 

[LHG]

This makes no sense unless the Yanks are sending at least 2 of their Uber-prospects along with, and even then, ain’t happening.

This is a national rumor because it helps the Yank Sox.

That's a hard pass.

What part of "younger and more athletic" do these writers not understand?

Still, makes a little sense as the Giants have been known to kick the tires on classic, er, legacy, er, older players.

I think the writers are picking up on this stuff because (A) the Giants want a center fielder and (B) they've been active in the trade front. I think the younger and more athletic components are being overlooked because the Giants haven't been going that direction with their acquisitions thus far. Heyman did note that the rumor is mainly because Ellsbury indicated he'd waive his no trade clause for the Giants. The interest is probably just with him in a purely "if I have to be traded and get to start somewhere, this situation looks good" type of interest.

 

[SFGRTB]

Hopefully, with something that complicated, they've got it figured out correctly.

So, as I understand it, the Giants have $15M to spend on one to two outfielders, a starting pitcher and a left handed reliever. Will they go right up to the threshold or will they try to keep some saved for the trade deadline?

I think the Giants are probably standing pretty firm on a 3/36 deal for Jay Bruce. I think they're pretty comfortable going into 2018 with Duggar. I think they'll sign a number of vet pitchers to minimum deals, both starters and lefty relievers.

I'll bet they're trying really hard to trade Pence too.

 

[LHG]

I think the Giants are probably standing pretty firm on a 3/36 deal for Jay Bruce. I think they're pretty comfortable going into 2018 with Duggar. I think they'll sign a number of vet pitchers to minimum deals, both starters and lefty relievers.

I'll bet they're trying really hard to trade Pence too.

Getting someone to take Pence won't be easy. Matt Moore was traded because someone thought he still had some untapped potential. Denard Span was traded because the other team got a big contract off their roster and Span at least had some serviceable offense. Pence doesn't fit into either category. I think the Giants will be stuck with him for 2018.

If Bruce gets signed at what you suggest, that leaves all of $2M between the team and the luxury tax threshold. Seems pretty hard for the Giants to get anything beyond dumpster dives for a starter and one or two relievers. That wouldn't be too surprising though, if they bring in a couple of those guys to compete. They almost always do.

 

[SFGRTB]

Getting someone to take Pence won't be easy. Matt Moore was traded because someone thought he still had some untapped potential. Denard Span was traded because the other team got a big contract off their roster and Span at least had some serviceable offense. Pence doesn't fit into either category. I think the Giants will be stuck with him for 2018.

If Bruce gets signed at what you suggest, that leaves all of $2M between the team and the luxury tax threshold. Seems pretty hard for the Giants to get anything beyond dumpster dives for a starter and one or two relievers. That wouldn't be too surprising though, if they bring in a couple of those guys to compete. They almost always do.

Plus with Pence, even if they found the perfect fit, he would have to approve it. And I don't see any scenario Pence wasn't to leave.

 

[calsnowskier]

With all things being equal, I would kinda like to see Pence retire as a Giant. He is one of the poster boys of the Golden Age.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think the Giants are probably standing pretty firm on a 3/36 deal for Jay Bruce. I think they're pretty comfortable going into 2018 with Duggar. I think they'll sign a number of vet pitchers to minimum deals, both starters and lefty relievers.

I'll bet they're trying really hard to trade Pence too.

I haven’t seen/heard a 3/36 rumor anywhere, but I would be fine with that. That is Pagan money, 6 years later. And he would only need to put up 3.5 WAR to earn the contract.

And just a couple days ago, there were pretty wide rumors that he was looking 5/100 (although his own agent pretty much laughed at those numbers)

 

[SF11704]

Looking at this off season from a business perspective and not as a Giant fan provides quite a different view ...
The Giants are in a division that has been won by the Dodgers for the past 5 years running. They are going to be very very difficult for the Giants to unseat. They have more talent and will spend more of their resources if needed. That most likely will limit the Giants to the Wild Card slots. This is where it gets very interesting for management/ownership. Looking back at the 2017 playoffs .... BOTH of the NL Wild Card positions came from the NL West. This immediately tells you that you have little or no wiggle room in your own division. You will have to be AT LEAST better then one of either the D'Backs or the Rockies ... preferably both.

To be a playoff contender in 2018 the Giants will have to at least match the 2017 playoff teams ....that would mean 87 wins as the 2nd WC position. Not a very easy task for teams in the NL West this coming year. We will be better this year .... not 7-12 against both the D'Backs and the Rockies .... but will we be able to reach 87 wins?
Will either the D'Backs and/or the Rockies be able to again reach a playoff position? Playing in the NL West in 2018 will not be an easy task for any of these teams.

 

[calsnowskier]

Looking at this off season from a business perspective and not as a Giant fan provides quite a different view ...
The Giants are in a division that has been won by the Dodgers for the past 5 years running. They are going to be very very difficult for the Giants to unseat. They have more talent and will spend more of their resources if needed. That most likely will limit the Giants to the Wild Card slots. This is where it gets very interesting for management/ownership. Looking back at the 2017 playoffs .... BOTH of the NL Wild Card positions came from the NL West. This immediately tells you that you have little or no wiggle room in your own division. You will have to be AT LEAST better then one of either the D'Backs or the Rockies ... preferably both.

To be a playoff contender in 2018 the Giants will have to at least match the 2017 playoff teams ....that would mean 87 wins as the 2nd WC position. Not a very easy task for teams in the NL West this coming year. We will be better this year .... not 7-12 against both the D'Backs and the Rockies .... but will we be able to reach 87 wins?
Will either the D'Backs and/or the Rockies be able to again reach a playoff position? Playing in the NL West in 2018 will not be an easy task for any of these teams.

Not only would we need to win approx 87 games, we would need to do it while not getting reinforcements at the deadline. Well, unless we want to deal Ramos, that is.

 

[LHG]

I haven’t seen/heard a 3/36 rumor anywhere, but I would be fine with that. That is Pagan money, 6 years later. And he would only need to put up 3.5 WAR to earn the contract.

And just a couple days ago, there were pretty wide rumors that he was looking 5/100 (although his own agent pretty much laughed at those numbers)

A 3/36 deal seems to be the only real way the Giants could afford Bruce, if they are serious about staying under the threshold.