2018 Fantasy Football Dynasty Draft Discussion

[TREFF]

Let me throw this out there...
I don't follow college football at all.
And I have a rule that really hasn't let me down yet.
The rule is: if a player is truly that good, he will make an impact immediately, which basically translates to his rookie season.
I drafted Njoku last season and he had some good games, but was invisible for others.
(Then again, the whole Cleveland team was inconsistent.)
In lieu of my personal "rule" I'm ready to cut Njoku in my dynasty league.
Mistake, or not?

Mistake, I will trade for him, whatcha want?

 

[TREFF]

In lieu of my personal "rule" I'm ready to cut Njoku in my dynasty league.
Mistake, or not?

Mistake, I will trade for him, whatcha want?

Offer sent Joe

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

Let me throw this out there...
I don't follow college football at all.
And I have a rule that really hasn't let me down yet.
The rule is: if a player is truly that good, he will make an impact immediately, which basically translates to his rookie season.
I drafted Njoku last season and he had some good games, but was invisible for others.
(Then again, the whole Cleveland team was inconsistent.)
In lieu of my personal "rule" I'm ready to cut Njoku in my dynasty league.
Mistake, or not?

It kinda depends on your league, but I wouldn't hold onto him if you can get something in return for him. I have a similar philosophy, but only if the team gives said rookie a role and they muck it up. I can see Njoku being in this boat.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Let me throw this out there...
I don't follow college football at all.
And I have a rule that really hasn't let me down yet.
The rule is: if a player is truly that good, he will make an impact immediately, which basically translates to his rookie season.
I drafted Njoku last season and he had some good games, but was invisible for others.
(Then again, the whole Cleveland team was inconsistent.)
In lieu of my personal "rule" I'm ready to cut Njoku in my dynasty league.
Mistake, or not?

I’d say try to trade him if I was you, before cutting him. Sent a offer.

 

[averagejoe]

It kinda depends on your league, but I wouldn't hold onto him if you can get something in return for him. I have a similar philosophy, but only if the team gives said rookie a role and they muck it up. I can see Njoku being in this boat.

I was offered a trade or two since I posted this.
I'm pondering over them.

But I should point out that my primary TE is Greg Olsen.
With Olsen, I do have the luxury of giving Njoku another year (or 2) to come around.
But I don't have a lot of patience for rookies.

As far as the league goes... it's brutal. They take no prisoners.
They're already trying to skewer me to get their hands on Njoku.

 

[averagejoe]

@DALLAScornhusker
Maybe I should have asked this first: is this year's crop of TE more talented than Njoku?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

@averagejoe

Bucky Brooks' Top 5 2018 NFL Draft prospects by position

Tight ends


1. Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State
2. Hayden Hurst, South Carolina
3. Mark Andrews, Oklahoma
4. Mike Gesicki, Penn State
5. Troy Fumagalli, Wisconsin

Evaluators looking for pass-catching tight ends will find a wealth of options available in the 2018 class. Goedert is a long, rangy playmaker capable of playing "above the rim" in the red zone. Hurst is a big-bodied seam runner with soft hands and outstanding "box-out" skills. Gesicki is a potential touchdown machine due to his length, leaping ability and volleyball background. He needs to refine his blocking technique, but his skills as a pass-catcher make him an intriguing prospect. Fumagalli is the next Badger tight end poised to make his mark in the league as a pass-catcher with credible blocking skills.

On the bubble: Adam Breneman, UMass; Ian Thomas, Indiana.

Here's another site take.

WalterFootball.com: 2018 NFL Draft: Tight End Rankings

Too long to copy and paste.

 

[averagejoe]

Thanks. Didn' go to the links yet. But still doesn't answer whether these guys are any better than Njoku.

 

[TREFF]

Thanks. Didn' go to the links yet. But still doesn't answer whether these guys are any better than Njoku.

IMHO, no, they aren't/won't be. But then again, I also felt Njoku was head and shoulders the class of last years TE class. Jury is still out, hard to say what he would've been able to do outside of the joke that is Cleveland..but regardless. I do hear good things about a few soon to be rookie TE's, however, I don't hear much that sounds like what they were saying about Howard, Njoku, and Engram last year.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Thanks. Didn' go to the links yet. But still doesn't answer whether these guys are any better than Njoku.

Opinions will vary I would guess Joe. Only reason I offered a trade is because you were talking about cutting him.

 

[SteelersPride]

David Johnson (ARI – RB)

The case for David Johnson being an elite asset in the dynasty realm is easy to make. The Northern Iowa product emerged as a premier fantasy weapon as a sophomore in 2016 with 1,239 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns, as well as 80 receptions for 879 yards receiving and four trips to the end zone. Based on his incredible output as a rusher and receiver out of the backfield, Johnson finished as the RB1 overall in PPR formats in his second NFL campaign.

He then entered 2017 as a building block for all dynasty rosters. A wrist injury, unfortunately, limited him to merely one regular season game this past year, which derailed Johnson’s fantasy stock in the process. It has since catapulted back into elite territory, as the running back claims that his surgically-repaired wrist is back to full health.

The issue is, the superstar tailback is already 26 years old and will turn 27 during Arizona’s 2018 season. From a dynasty perspective, Johnson’s age is a legitimate concern. Sure, he is one of the most talented dual threats in the entire NFL.

Larry Fitzgerald is entirely up in the air beyond this upcoming season in which he has confirmed a return for. Couple that with the fact that offensive-guru Bruce Arians is no longer the head coach, and it becomes clear that Johnson very well could be overvalued in dynasty.


Sure, the newfound presence of Steve Wilks could rejuvenate a struggling franchise. The question remains, how will the entire offense be impacted?

Despite Johnson’s immense talent, there are simply too many variables out of his control that inherently need to be calculated into his cost and long-term value. Does he belong in the first-round conversation in redraft formats for next season? Absolutely. Dynasty? I tend to believe the answer is no provided the other assets available near him in ADP.

 

[SteelersPride]

Kenyan Drake (MIA – RB)


Based on his emergence late in 2017, Kenyan Drake is viewed as a popular breakout candidate for next season in fantasy circles. Before jumping to this conclusion, proactive owners need to recognize that the running back’s success stems from a small sample size of production.


Yes, Drake ranked as the PPR RB6 from Weeks 9-17 this past season after taking over as the starter for the Miami Dolphins. Over that span, he boasted an impressive 4.9 yard per carry average and established himself as a versatile weapon out of the backfield with 883 yards from scrimmage over his entire sophomore campaign. Drake is now being valued as a borderline top-50 selection in startup dynasty drafts this offseason.

Keep in mind, his spike in ADP is a direct reflection of output from merely nine regular-season contests. Hence, there is a legitimate reason to proceed with caution before claiming Drake is a surefire asset.

A potential red flag that is often overlooked for the 24-year-old tailback is his usage rate in college. In fact, he never earned more than 92 rushing attempts in a single campaign across four seasons at Alabama. While an ample workload in college is not a prerequisite for success in the NFL, it at least indicates a player’s durability at the next level.

Since Drake was used sparingly as a running back in school, it is irrational to assume that he should be viewed as a featured back in Miami for the foreseeable future. Is it probable? Sure. It is also possible that Drake regresses from an efficiency standpoint in 2018, which in turn would make him an overvalued commodity in dynasty structures.

 

[SteelersPride]

Dion Lewis (NE)
“Lewis is currently ranked as an RB2 which is far too high for me. Granted, there will be three or four rookies who pass him up, but I won’t be advising anyone to select him as a top 36 running back. Sure, he had a great run for four games, but that was cut short byJames White’s emergence as the new goal-line back. The chances of Lewis starting even 8 games is small while the odds not ever being the head dog again is non-zero.”

 

[SteelersPride]

Dalvin Cook

“Frankly, no one stands out as drastically overvalued at the running back position, but I don’t feel comfortable with Dalvin Cook at number nine. Yes, he’s an incredible talent and he should theoretically be recovered from his ACL tear, but there are always risks in recovery. And although Jerick McKinnon will almost certainly be gone, Latavius Murray has proven himself as a more-than-capable goal-line back, and new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo comes over from the Eagles where the offensive philosophy revolved around three running backs. Cook may be fully recovered, he may get goal-line work, and he may get the lion’s share of the touches, but there is enough risk there for him to be considered lower than the ninth running back off the board.”

 

[averagejoe]

Opinions will vary I would guess Joe. Only reason I offered a trade is because you were talking about cutting him.

Not looking forward to cut day.
Not sure who will get the axe?
Maybe I'll pass on my last 3 round of picks

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

@DALLAScornhusker
Maybe I should have asked this first: is this year's crop of TE more talented than Njoku?

I wasn't in love with Njoku and bought zero shares in him. I felt there was too much hype to buy in. This year there are no 4.4 running hybrid Engram or 4.5 running overgrown WR Howard. But there are actual in-line TEs that can win jobs this year. Andrews can do everything I've seen Njoku do. Goedert and Gesicki are both in the mold of Greg Olsen - which you may recall took some time and a second team to really prosper. Those two will be dependent on scheme to get good fast. Both have excellent hands. Smythe, Hurst and Schultz look like JAGs to me, but see them ranked higher than I have them. Fumagalli reminds me of Todd Heap. Thomas reminds me of Ben Watson.

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

So this group of WRs for 2018 is a bit perplexing. There are favorites of certain sites which I understand somewhat. But if you wanted a list of the top 10 2018 rookies to be, there are about 4 mainstays and 6 that are hit or miss. Ridley, Sutton, Kirk & Washington seem to have locked down value at this point pre-combine.

I happen to like a lot of the "little" guys this year. I really like guys like DJ Moore, Kirk, Anthony Miller and Richie James. Ridley is likely going to stay my top guy regardless of where he goes in the draft. But after that, I've got Sutton and Gallup along with these little guys - order depending on where they land.

Tell me I'm crazy.

 

[SteelersPride]

So this group of WRs for 2018 is a bit perplexing. There are favorites of certain sites which I understand somewhat. But if you wanted a list of the top 10 2018 rookies to be, there are about 4 mainstays and 6 that are hit or miss. Ridley, Sutton, Kirk & Washington seem to have locked down value at this point pre-combine.

I happen to like a lot of the "little" guys this year. I really like guys like DJ Moore, Kirk, Anthony Miller and Richie James. Ridley is likely going to stay my top guy regardless of where he goes in the draft. But after that, I've got Sutton and Gallup along with these little guys - order depending on where they land.

Tell me I'm crazy.

I wanna see some combine, but Sutton and Ridley are my top two, there’s some no names I like

 

[eaglesnut]

TEs develop slow. Njoku is very young. He's talented but it's gonna be a while unless they get a smart OC that wants to feature him.

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

Underwear Olympics is basically over for skill position players. Overall a decent showing. There are a few winners, not many losers.
I was expecting more from the WR group than that. Two sub 4.4 guys, and a lot of "name" guys that were 4.55 or worse.
The TE group was about as I expected. Gesicki thoroughly impressed me, matching or exceeding OJ Howard's combine with about 1/100th of the hype. Still need to see more of Goedert to validate what he looks like on tape.
I didn't pay much attention to the QB group.
RBs were a mixed bag. Barkley can't do any more to improve my opinion. I see LT in him. Didn't expect Chubb to test that well, even better in areas than Michel. Penny is fast afterall. Ronald Jones disappointed. The one thing I thought he could do was win in a track meet setting.