2018 draft thread

[Niner Outlaw]

I would never take a RB number one overall.

You'd be missing out on studs like Bo Jackson, Earl Campbell and OJ Simpson. Then again, you'd also be missing out on duds like Ki-Jana Carter and Rickey Bell.

For me to take a RB #1 overall, the RB would have to be a generational talent, rated insanely high, my team needs a RB, the draft lacks high quality depth at the RB spot, the draft is lacking in blue chip players at all of my positions of need. I'd still be scared to death to do it.

 

[Sharkinva]

You'd be missing out on studs like Bo Jackson, Earl Campbell and OJ Simpson. Then again, you'd also be missing out on duds like Ki-Jana Carter and Rickey Bell.

For me to take a RB #1 overall, the RB would have to be a generational talent, rated insanely high, my team needs a RB, the draft lacks high quality depth at the RB spot, the draft is lacking in blue chip players at all of my positions of need. I'd still be scared to death to do it.

For me it would depend on how the rest of my roster looked. If the RB in question is rated as one of the best players in the draft, and I am set at QB, WR and O-line, D-line and CB are solid, and said RB would change us from an average team to a super bowl contender.... Im taking him.

 

[Buffalo_Nickel_1]

For me it would depend on how the rest of my roster looked. If the RB in question is rated as one of the best players in the draft, and I am set at QB, WR and O-line, D-line and CB are solid, and said RB would change us from an average team to a super bowl contender.... Im taking him.

i agree

 

[Ottermatic]

For me it would depend on how the rest of my roster looked. If the RB in question is rated as one of the best players in the draft, and I am set at QB, WR and O-line, D-line and CB are solid, and said RB would change us from an average team to a super bowl contender.... Im taking him.

of course, if you're set at QB, WR, and O-line, and your D-line and CB are solid, you're probably not picking at #1 overall.

 

[Sharkinva]

of course, if you're set at QB, WR, and O-line, and your D-line and CB are solid, you're probably not picking at #1 overall.

Probably not. But that was my response to the idea that one would NEVER take a RB at #1.

And mind you I think it is possible for a team to be OK in all those areas and still end up with the #1 over all pick.

Just means that the year before they ended up with a butt ton of injuries and a shitty record. The Colts did NOT have a bad team the year they sucked ass and took Luck. And had Luck not been there, I dont think they get rid of Manning.

 

[gkekoa]

You'd be missing out on studs like Bo Jackson, Earl Campbell and OJ Simpson. Then again, you'd also be missing out on duds like Ki-Jana Carter and Rickey Bell.

For me to take a RB #1 overall, the RB would have to be a generational talent, rated insanely high, my team needs a RB, the draft lacks high quality depth at the RB spot, the draft is lacking in blue chip players at all of my positions of need. I'd still be scared to death to do it.

How long was Bo's career? How many titles do any of those guys have? Those are guys from another era as well. Why not look at AP, a generational QB? Look how little success Minnesota had during his time there.

I will stick with 2nd round RBs and later, build my team on longevity and true difference makers. I just don't think there is a RB in the world that could convince me to draft him number 1 and hardly even the first round. Until they make a RB that is 6'2", 250 pounds, runs a 4.4 but moves like Shady and catches like Bell, I can't see it.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

How long was Bo's career? How many titles do any of those guys have? Those are guys from another era as well. Why not look at AP, a generational QB? Look how little success Minnesota had during his time there.

Bo's career was cut short due to a freak accident. Might as well knock Sean Taylor b/c of his short career.

How many titles these RBs have is irrelevant to whether the player was worth the first overall pick. That kind of thinking leads teams to pass on HOF players. Minnesota doesn't regret drafting Peterson 7th overall, but of the 6 teams drafting ahead of Minnesota in 2007, I assure you that 4 of them deeply regret passing Peterson, including the team with the 1st overall choice that year.

The passing nature of the league has definitely devalued RBs in the last few years, but that appears to be changing recently with Elliot and Fournette going 4th overall in consecutive years, 3 Rbs going in the top 10 last year, and Barkley is rated higher than any other RB in a LONG time. I'll be surprised if he isn't the first or second choice in 2018.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

How long was Bo's career? How many titles do any of those guys have? Those are guys from another era as well. Why not look at AP, a generational QB? Look how little success Minnesota had during his time there.

I will stick with 2nd round RBs and later, build my team on longevity and true difference makers. I just don't think there is a RB in the world that could convince me to draft him number 1 and hardly even the first round. Until they make a RB that is 6'2", 250 pounds, runs a 4.4 but moves like Shady and catches like Bell, I can't see it.

I basically agree w/ you about RB. However - Barkley almost fits your description of a perfect RB - 5' 11" / 230 (don't really think a RB needs to be tall) & has run a sub 4.4 40 & seems to know how to move on the field. If any RB deserves to be picked high in the draft it is probably this guy.

 

[gkekoa]

Bo's career was cut short due to a freak accident. Might as well knock Sean Taylor b/c of his short career.

How many titles these RBs have is irrelevant to whether the player was worth the first overall pick. That kind of thinking leads teams to pass on HOF players. Minnesota doesn't regret drafting Peterson 7th overall, but of the 6 teams drafting ahead of Minnesota in 2007, I assure you that 4 of them deeply regret passing Peterson, including the team with the 1st overall choice that year.

The passing nature of the league has definitely devalued RBs in the last few years, but that appears to be changing recently with Elliot and Fournette going 4th overall in consecutive years, 3 Rbs going in the top 10 last year, and Barkley is rated higher than any other RB in a LONG time. I'll be surprised if he isn't the first or second choice in 2018.

Bo got hurt on the field. Sean was murdered in his home. Pretty poor comparison.

I am sure those four teams regret not taking Patrick Willis, Darrell Revis, and Lawrence Timmons as well. The real question is if you are going to hit on your pick, would you rather it be a position other than RB? RBs are commonly found throughout the draft with little difference in success between rounds, not necessarily rate.

It is a cyclical league. Just because I wouldn't do something doesn't mean teams won't. Barkley probably will go 1 or 2 overall. It doesn't mean those teams are right or wrong, it just means philosophically they are different.

Reasons I do not select RBs high...
1- longevity of career and general injuries.
2- the position just isn't that important to winning.


Top ten RB picks recent history for their original teams
2017 Fournette- 4-3 good start
2017 McCaffery- 5-3 good start
2016 Elliot- 17-6...0-1 in playoffs
2015 Gurley- 16-23
2012 Trent Richardson- not even going to bother
2010 CJ Spiller- 31-49
2008 McFadden- 37-75
2007 AP- 80-80...1-4 in playoffs. In ten seasons, Minnesota made the playoffs, 4 times. This is a generational back.
2006 Reggie Bush- 49-31...always a complimentary back with a HOF QB. Was part of a SB winner.
2005 Ronnie Brown- 41-55...0-1 in playoff
2005 Cedric Benson
2005 Cadillac Williams- 46-50...0-2 in playoffs
2001 LT- love LT. Top three back in history for my taste. Never win the big one and consistently was a winner.
2000 Jamal Lewis is the last top ten RB to win a SB for his draft team as THE MAN.
2000 Thomas Jones- bust on his draft team.

Only two RBs drafted in the top ten have won a Super Bowl for their draft teams over the last 17 years. Only two made their teams playoff contenders on a consistent basis. Only three have a winning record, Bush because he played with Brees. The three taken in the last two years could change this but I doubt it.

 

[gkekoa]

I basically agree w/ you about RB. However - Barkley almost fits your description of a perfect RB - 5' 11" / 230 (don't really think a RB needs to be tall) & has run a sub 4.4 40 & seems to know how to move on the field. If any RB deserves to be picked high in the draft it is probably this guy.

I agree. He almost fits the description. I went tall because he can win jump balls like a WR, basically being sarcastic. He is good as any since AP who has a career .500 record, has been to the playoffs 40% of the time, and nothing more than individual accolades to show for it. Believe it or not, I like Barkley and would love for us to land him after signing KC long term. If I believed in Garopollo, I may even take Barkley #1.

I just convinced myself as to why SF traded for JG. They expect to get the top pick and now have their QB because they do have faith in him.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Bo got hurt on the field. Sean was murdered in his home. Pretty poor comparison.

Imperfect, but far from poor. The similarity between Jackson and Taylor is that their careers were shortened due to freak, highly-unlikely incidents that have no realistic bearing on whether or not the player was a wise draft choice.

Top ten RB picks recent history for their original teams
2017 Fournette- 4-3 good start
2017 McCaffery- 5-3 good start
2016 Elliot- 17-6...0-1 in playoffs
2015 Gurley- 16-23
2012 Trent Richardson- not even going to bother
2010 CJ Spiller- 31-49
2008 McFadden- 37-75
2007 AP- 80-80...1-4 in playoffs. In ten seasons, Minnesota made the playoffs, 4 times. This is a generational back.
2006 Reggie Bush- 49-31...always a complimentary back with a HOF QB. Was part of a SB winner.
2005 Ronnie Brown- 41-55...0-1 in playoff
2005 Cedric Benson
2005 Cadillac Williams- 46-50...0-2 in playoffs
2001 LT- love LT. Top three back in history for my taste. Never win the big one and consistently was a winner.
2000 Jamal Lewis is the last top ten RB to win a SB for his draft team as THE MAN.
2000 Thomas Jones- bust on his draft team.

Only two RBs drafted in the top ten have won a Super Bowl for their draft teams over the last 17 years. Only two made their teams playoff contenders on a consistent basis. Only three have a winning record, Bush because he played with Brees. The three taken in the last two years could change this but I doubt it.

I think the reason there were so many top 10 busts at RB is that teams were reaching for undeserving players. That's what's been happening at QB for many years now even though it's the most important position on the field. For example, out of the last 20 QBs drafted in the top 10 on their original team:
--7 total busts
--4 others with records under .500 and 0 playoff wins
--None have a SB win
--Only 2 have a Conference championship game appearance, let alone a SB (Newton and Ryan)
--Only 4 consistently made their teams playoff contenders (Newton, Ryan, Stafford, Luck)

It is a cyclical league. Just because I wouldn't do something doesn't mean teams won't. Barkley probably will go 1 or 2 overall. It doesn't mean those teams are right or wrong, it just means philosophically they are different.

If one wants a good RB, you can get them in many places. If a team wants a GREAT RB, they typically have to get him near the top of Rd 1. Not necessarily at 1st overall, but high. I agree that the NFL is cyclical and it appears the GMs are coming back around to drafting RBs early. Guys like Gurley, Elliott and Fournette are, so far, making that trend look like a smart one, but all it'll take to put the brakes on that trend is Barkley turning out like KiJana Carter or Blaire Thomas.

 

[Buffalo_Nickel_1]

walter mock draft skins draft qb josh Allen

 

[Sportster 72]

He has been their pick for the Redskins for a little while coach.

 

[Sharkinva]

He has been their pick for the Redskins for a little while coach.

True, but thats because they assume the Skins wont keep Cousins. Alot of people feel that way.


I tend to agree.

 

[Sportster 72]

I don't think it means anything. It is a mock draft 6 months before the draft. I don't put much stock in it.

 

[gkekoa]

I think the reason there were so many top 10 busts at RB is that teams were reaching for undeserving players. That's what's been happening at QB for many years now even though it's the most important position on the field. For example, out of the last 20 QBs drafted in the top 10 on their original team:
--7 total busts
--4 others with records under .500 and 0 playoff wins
--None have a SB win
--Only 2 have a Conference championship game appearance, let alone a SB (Newton and Ryan)
--Only 4 consistently made their teams playoff contenders (Newton, Ryan, Stafford, Luck)



If one wants a good RB, you can get them in many places. If a team wants a GREAT RB, they typically have to get him near the top of Rd 1. Not necessarily at 1st overall, but high. I agree that the NFL is cyclical and it appears the GMs are coming back around to drafting RBs early. Guys like Gurley, Elliott and Fournette are, so far, making that trend look like a smart one, but all it'll take to put the brakes on that trend is Barkley turning out like KiJana Carter or Blaire Thomas.[/QUOTE]

I don't think teams stretched for RBs. I think these RBs improved their teams slightly so they improved just enough to be mediocre to poor. Few of those RBs were total busts. I do believe teams stretch, big time, for QBs.

Best RB this year has been Hunt with a close second to Fournette. The best RBs in the game are Bell and Johnson. I don't think Elliot is great because McFadden was great behind that line. Fournette has been very good. As for Gurley, I would say inconsistent is the least we can say. He had a very good rookie season and followed it with a dud. This season he is back to playing well. Time will tell if these backs can consistently take their teams to the playoffs or even win the big one. Like I said, it has been 17 years since a top ten running back was the man on their SB winning team.

I will say Barkley will be seen as a bust if he goes to Cleveland. Hell, he could end up in Indy. I think he and Luck would both like that.

 

[gkekoa]

walter mock draft skins draft qb josh Allen

Charlie's mock site is much better.

1- Austin Bryant OLB
2- Terrell Edmonds S
3- Luke Falk QB

 

[Sportster 72]

I would put very little stock in any mock draft at this point. Hell we haven't even had the underwear Olympics yet where stars are born.

 

[gkekoa]

Baker Mayfield...600 yards, 5 TDs, 6 total

 

[Sportster 72]

Mason Rudolph made some tight throws in that game also. Didn't have as many yards. 2 picks for each guy. Not much D but that is the Big 12 conference.