2017 Top Prospects

[Stokes1931]

2016 Top Prospects from SFGRTB

Time to start a new thread? Mods? (As you wish!)

Lists are starting to filter through.

Fangraphs:

1. Arroyo
2. Beede
3. Reynolds
4. Blach
5. Suarez
6. Okert
7. Gregorio
8. Fabian
9. Stratton
10. Krook

Baseball America:

1. Beede
2. Arroyo
3. Shaw
4. Reynolds
5. Suarez
6. Blach
7. Gregorio
8. Fabian
9. Garcia
10. Duggar

Minor League Ball:

1. Arroyo
2. Beede
3. Reynolds
4. Blach
5. Suarez
6. Okert
7. Gregorio
8. Hinojosa
9. Shaw
10. Quinn

Dr. B:

1. Arroyo
2. Beede
3. Reynolds
4. Blach
5. Slater
6. Duggar
7. Suarez
8. Shaw
9. Quinn
10. Fabian

I always like to see Keith Law's and Baseball Prospectus lists too. They tend to be more critical of everyone.

There's not a consensus 1, but there's a consensus top 2 and most top 4's will look similar. After that it's a cluster****. There's still quite a bit of depth in the Giants farm, though not a lot of high-end talent. I 100% believe that if we had one blue-chip prospect, this would be a top-10 system. 1 Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada, Benintendi etc., people would look at this system much differently. As it stands we have a lot of medium-ceiling, high-floor guys, which is still so useful for the major league club that is in the luxury tax. And in the 2016 draft we took a TON of high-ceiling, low-floor guys, so hopefully we can win the lottery on one of those guys.

I'll be posting my thoughts at some point, but it's that time of year!

 

[SFGRTB]

Thanks Stokes

To reiterate, we have a strong system. Going into 2017 we have a wealth of pitching depth in the upper minors, which many teams would kill for. We have Tyler Beede, Ty Blach, Clayton Blackburn, Andrew Suarez (not Albert Suarez but him too), Joan Gregorio, Chris Stratton, Dan Slania, Sam Coonrod, Matt Gage all slated for AAA or AA, and 6 of those guys could step into a Major League rotation right now, and a couple more could slide into the bullpen. We have enviable pitching depth in the upper minors. No front-line Ace material, but major league pitchers. Beede is the closest thing to front-line, and he's probably a number 3 starter at best, which is still fantastic.

Going down the line, the Giants hoarded high-risk, high-reward pitchers in the 2016 draft. Led by Matt Krook, who could be the next blue-chip prospect in this system. His stuff is Ace material no doubt, but he has such a long way to go. He's like a mixture of Jonathan Sanchez and Kyle Crick. Add in Garrett Williams, Alex Bostic, Stephen Woods, Conner Menez and the Giants loaded up on lotto tickets, bucking the "safe" pick trend.

As for relievers, we still have a number of extreme hard-throwers littered throughout the levels. Reyes Moronta leads the way in AA, and he's already on the 40-man. He could be in SF at some point in 2017, great FB/SL combo but he's pretty fat (like Pablo fat) so he needs to keep his weight down. Then even though Rodolfo Martinez fell off a cliff in AA and the AFL, he still throws 100+ consistently, and most scouts point to a mechanical problem. He's still throwing well on the side but in-game has been a mess. Luckily he's not seriously injured. There's also Ian Gardeck, who is a year away still since he'll spend most of 2017 getting back from TJ, but the Giants still like him a lot. Then I think Gregorio, Coonrod and Slania are all real good candidates to end up in the bullpen where their stuff will play up much better, especially Gregorio who I think could be lethal, Dellin Betances type.

The Giants still have plenty of pieces to throw into trades similar to the Nunez/Mejia trade like last year.

This post is running long, so I'll get around to the hitters later.

 

[SFGRTB]

Much like the pitchers, the Giants have a number of major league contributors on the other side of the field, and quite a few in the upper minors. Obviously the group is led by Christian Arroyo, who is going to be playing 3B everyday in Sacramento and the consensus is that he is going to hit no matter where he goes and be a leader. Other infielders to keep in mind in the upper minors are Chris Shaw, C.J Hinojosa, Ryder Jones, Miguel Gomez and T.J. Bennett. Shaw is the wildcard here because he has to rely so much on his bat to be a major leaguer which will make it a tough road for him. He has 30-homer power but he's basically stuck at 1B/DH. Hinojosa plays real good defense at SS and has enough of a hit and power tool to profile as a utility guy in the Majors. Ryder has always been less than the sum of his parts, hoping it clicks sometime. Gomez is such a volatile player because he relies purely on batting average. He's pretty bad with the glove everywhere. He was added to the 40-man roster. T.J. Bennett is another utility profile guy with defensive versatility. He's shown a little bit of everything.

In the lower minors, Jalen Miller, Ryan Howard, Kelvin Beltre, and Dillion Dobson lead the group and all could be headed to San Jose to form their infield. My personal favorite here is Beltre, he has been slowed by injuries every year since joining pro-ball. But he has a very interesting power/speed combo at 3B to make him interesting. Miller has been somewhat disastrous since being drafted, but he's still so young. Howard is a typical Giants pick in the Duffy/Panik/Kelby mold.

In the outfield, Steven Duggar and Austin Slater will be manning CF and LF respectively in Sacramento with Arroyo. I'm a huge believer in Duggar, it's likely he ends up as a decent 3rd OF if everything clicks, or a great 4th OFer. Great arm and range for CF, shows some power and decent contact. There's holes in his swing that will prevent him from ever hitting a high average, but he makes up for with with his great strike-zone recognition. He's a high OBP guy with enough power to keep pitchers honest. He was also drafted in 2015 and is already in AAA. I'm not as high on Slater as others, only because the power all came in one series in Reno, which is a launching pad. He's still a great hitter in the same mold of Duffy/Panik/Kelby, and he has position versatility, which makes him really useful.

Dylan Davis, who much like Shaw, will have to rely on his power to take him far. Davis is surprisingly small in height but has massive shoulders and short, but strong arms. Dr. B compared him to Dan Uggla in appearance and I see that. He's a beast. He'll be in AA and it will be real interesting to see how hi power plays. Jebavy continued to make highlight plays in San Jose like he would on college, but the bat never came around like I hoped it would. Still a chance he makes it to the bigs as a 5th OFer for speed and defense, but there's a number of guys who can do that. Had an injury in the playoffs, not sure how is recovery is going.

The San Jose outfield is going to be in the spotlight this year. 3 high 2016 college draftees. Gio Brusa, Bryan Reynolds, and Heath Quinn from left to right. Starting with Reynolds, who I can't help but think Randy Winn when I think his peak future, then Quinn, who has a dreamy line for a power hitter (great average, high walk rate, average K rate, and even some decent foot speed). These 2 guys were the top 2 Giants picks and hopefully one can break the trend of the cursed Giants OF. Brusa has a looong swing but packs a lot of power in it. He's a TOP who switch-hits, a rare combination. Johneshway Fargas still lingers, could crack this group as a 4th OFer.

In the lower minors, 4 names stick out. Sandro Fabian, Gustavo Cabrera, Jacob Heyward and Malique Zeigler. Cabrera is still so young, he turns 21 in 2 days. We know his injury history (I mean, look at his wrist!

Spoiler

) and his comeback, but he's still a physical marvel with tons of talent. Zeigler was a late round pick in 2016 out of a JC where he crushed the league. He reminds me of Juan Perez, though a little taller. Perez never fulfilled his potential (the power just never came around), but Zeigler is of the same mold. Heyward has the power/OBP combo to be interesting, and the bloodlines. He's not the athlete or defender his brother is (think Jonah and Nolan Arenado). My personal favorite here is Fabian. He's starting to creep up on top lists. In simple terms, he's a "baseball player" as a lot of people like to say. A lot of these lower minor guys get labeled as "athletes" and toolsy, but Fabian is not as athletic and toolsy as his counterparts, but he's a baller. He's the ideal Giants player, the kind they target in the drafts all the time. He's a long ways away (he's only 18, will turn 19 in March), but the Giants promoted Lucius Fox aggressively, and Fabian is far more advanced than Fox. Last year was his 1st year state-side as an 18 year old, and he led the AZL is batting average and slugging %. That is damn impressive. The Giants love him and think he's got a future in RF. He also has a great bat flip

.

Catchers are so hard to rank because they have basically double the development cycle, but Aramis Garcia had an unfortunate season last year after breaking his face sliding into 2B and missing half the year. He was hitting well before the injury, but never came back to normal. He's improved a lot on defense since being drafted, but has a ways to go. I think he's bound for San Jose again, but a good start and he could head to Richmond.

Sorry, this ran long again. I tend to rabble on about prospects but I really enjoy following the minors. It's so easy to in this day with more stats and video available, and many scouts share their thoughts on Twitter and other blogs. I plan on posting my top 10 at some point.

 

[SFGRTB]

1a. Christian Arroyo, 3B - Predicted starting level: AAA

• It was too hard for me to decide between Arroyo and Beede, so I copped out. Arroyo has a spectacular hit tool that will carry him in the big leagues. He's strong enough to belt double-digit homers, but is more likely to use the gaps and rack up a ton of doubles. Power tends to develop with age. Don't be discouraged with the pedestrian numbers last year; Richmond's home park is one of the biggest suppressors of homeruns in MiLB, the pitching talent from A+ to AA is the biggest jump of all the levels, and Arroyo was the 3rd youngest player in AA (a good 2-3 years younger than the average), and he still managed 36 doubles (2 from the most in AA), to increase his walk rate and decrease his strikeout rate. He still needs to improve his walk rate, but it's not like Sandoval where he never see's a pitch he doesn't like, he waits for his pitch and attacks it. He has a glowing personality that people gravitate to and is a clubhouse leader, AKA great makeup. I think he could cause a spark in Spring Training, he'll probably be in big league camp for a long time, but ultimately spend most of 2017 in AAA playing 3B the majority of the time. A September call-up is highly probable.

1b. Tyler Beede, SP - Predicted starting level: AAA

• See what I did there? It's pretty cool that the Giants top 2 prospects are both right on the cusp of the big leagues. It hasn't happened like that since 2009 when Posey and Bumgarner were still prospects, though Beede and Arroyo aren't anywhere close to MVPosey and World Series Legend Bum. Beede has had quite the MiLB career so far. Went from flamethrower who was effectively wild out of the draft, to a soft cutter sinker guy pitching to contact, to now where he has a happy medium of it all. The Giants changed his delivery and forced him to throw new pitches since he was drafted, but this year they let the new Beede off the leash and he responded in a big way. Part of his bad looking 2015 was due to fatigue, but he showed up in great shape and was able to be effective all 2016, leading the league in ERA, 2nd in K's, and 6th in IP. As late as August, he was throwing 97 late in games. That's a great sign. So he basically throws the kitchen sink at you with a 4-seam, sinker and cut fastballs, 12-6 curve, and a slider. And if he's around the big league staff enough, I'm sure he'll develop some sort of changeup. He's going to be competing for the 5th starter spot and make some noise, but like Arroyo will spend most of 2017 in AAA. A September call-up is likely.

3. Bryan Reynolds, CF - Predicted starting level: A+

• Our 1st pick in the 2016 draft. Bat-first center-fielder does everything well, nothing great. There's concern if he can play CF well enough (especially in AT&T) where his bat will play way up, or if he has to move to a corner where his bat will play down. If everything goes really well for the kid I can't get a Randy Winn comp out of my head, obviously that's his high-end comp. If he does well in San Jose, he could be in Richmond by June, like 2015 draftees Duggar, Shaw, Suarez, and Hinijosa.

4. Ty Blach, SP - Predicted starting level: AAA

• Cain will be given every opportunity and then some to be the 5th starter, and at this point I'm giving it to him. With that, and a full bullpen, I think Blach ends up in AAA and keeps doing his thing there. We know what he is. He's not going to go out and shut out the Dodgers every time out, but he's a Kirk Rueter type crafty lefty who makes up for his lack of sharp pitches for being really good everywhere he can control.

5. Andrew Suarez, SP - Predicted starting level: AAA

• Suarez and Blach are so close, but I gave the edge to Blach because he did it in his brief time in the majors and dominated AAA, whereas Suarez hasn't pitched in AAA yet. I do think Suarez has a higher ceiling than Blach though. His pitches are s little sharper, the fastball a little faster, and his slider is a legit out pitch that Blach doesn't really have. Suarez too has great command. Suarez has a long injury history which is something to keep in mind. A 2015 2nd round pick, he's had such a quick rise because he is an advanced pitcher. It's possible he stays in AA because of the numbers game (Giants literally have too many arms to start in the upper-levels), but he'll finish out the year in AAA.

6. Steven Duggar, CF - Predicted starting level: AAA

• I really like Duggar. People are all over the board with him, but I think at worst he's a 5th OF who can play CF and RF well. At best he can be a 3rd OFer. His game is OBP centered, and he has good raw power that he hasn't tapped into yet and enough speed to be a double-double player. Hitting .321 in AA is no easy thing, and no one is blocking him in AAA, so I see no reason he can't be in Sacramento. A 2015 5th-round pick, it's incredible the Giants have 2 guys right on the cusp from the 2015 class.

7. Chris Shaw, 1B/DH - Predicted starting level: AA

• After Shaw's brutal start in Richmond (batted .206), he finished out hitting .279/.322/.505 after the slump. The OBP is a bit lower for someone with so much power, but there is no denying 33 homeruns since his debut in the summer of 2015, and his walk rate was much better in Salem and San Jose. His K rate is also very respectable. The exciting thing about Shaw is he has a good enough hit tool and doesn't strikeout enough to be merely a TOP player. He should be able to hit plenty of double along with those homers to be an offensive force. The problem is where does he play? Belt is blocking him at 1st, and he's not even good there yet. He probably starts in AA, MiLB free agents Michael Morse, Kyle Blanks and Chris Marrero will probably have 1st cracks at 1B/DH in AAA.

8. Heath Quinn, RF - Predicted starting level: A+

• Part 2 of the San Jose outfield, Quinn has the combination of skills you dream of for power hitters. Good contact rate, good walk rate, respectable K rate and some speed. Think Josh Willingham. Pitchers can't cheat with that combination of skills, and while he doesn't have the raw power that Shaw has, his power is still likely to translate to the majors into the 20s+. He's also not considered a bad defender in the OF. 2016 3rd rounder will start in San Jose and could be in AA if he mashes.

9. Sandro Fabian, RF - Predicted starting Level: A-

• Hopefully the one who can break the International curse, Fabian already has great contact ability and a real smooth swing. It's compact and doesn't have many holes. He doesn't project out to be a massive power hitter, but there's enough for him to be a corner outfielder. Unlike many of the high-profile International prospects, he is not oozing with tools and athleticism. He's of your typical Giants mold, contact hitter first. He's not a burner, but he's not slow. He already has an advanced approach and he's only 18 (19 2 days). He should start in Augusta, which would be aggressive for his age, but they were aggressive with Fox and Miller and they were way more raw. He led the Arizona League in batting average and slugging %. Cross your fingers!

10. Austin Slater, LF - Predicted starting level: AAA

• It's hard not to include a guy who has hit right around or above .300 at every level with great walk rates and surprising power. Slater is kind of like Matt Duffy in that he's always overlooked despite continuously putting up good numbers and improves on them. Slater is of the typical Giants mold. They love these type of guys. He was an outfielder at Stanford, drafted as a second baseman, then switched back to the OF last year. A lot of his power output came in one series in Reno, which is a launching pad, but he was showing power in AA too with a .172 ISO, which is great for Richmond. I still think he projects best as a utility guy, but if he's hitting well in AAA, and MacParker are not in SF, we could see him starting in the bigs at some point.

So that's my top 10. I might even throw in 10 more because of how deep this system goes. I'm sure Cal will chime in with his list too! I look forward to it!

 

[calsnowskier]

I am not sure I want to chime in. Kinda like going on stage after Richard Pryor.

Well done, sir...

 

[Stokes1931]

FWIW, Garcia hit poorly in the AFL, but he led the team in RBI. The week I was there, every time he came up with runners on, he got them home. After the post-ASB debacle of hitting with RISP last year, it is good to see a guy who can get runners home, even when he isn't hitting over .300

 

[SFGRTB]

I am not sure I want to chime in. Kinda like going on stage after Richard Pryor.

Well done, sir...

You're making me blush

But I would like to hear your thoughts!

 

[SFGRTB]

FWIW, Garcia hit poorly in the AFL, but he led the team in RBI. The week I was there, every time he came up with runners on, he got them home. After the post-ASB debacle of hitting with RISP last year, it is good to see a guy who can get runners home, even when he isn't hitting over .300

Yeah I'm not too worried about his bat. Nice to hear that he had the key hits, hopefully he can take that positive into next season.

 

[calsnowskier]

I have not paid much attention to the farm this past year or so. So I do not have a top 10 right now. But let my just offer a few devils advocate arguments against a few of your rankings...

Arroyo - can't argue with anything you have said, except that I believe he is the clear #1 in the system. He may not be a prototypical corner infielder, but he seems to be a bit of a poor-man's Buster Posey. He MAY not be a future all-star (he also might be), but I expect him to be a core player for at least a decade. I am not convinced that will be with the Giants, though.

Beede - he is the clear #2 in the system. But he is not an Ace. And he may not be a legit #2 either. Especially on a team that is used to having at least 2 Aces. The Posey/Bum comparisons are obvious, and maybe that will haunt these two their whole careers. Tough to live up to the expectations of a couple HOFers.

Reynolds - I like him, but #3? Really? After just a half season? This guy has (relative, potential) disappointment written all over him. His D is not good enough for center, his bat isn't good enough for the corner. I would put him top 10, but no way I put him this high. At least not yet. He needs to show me more at the pro level first. And just because he was OUR first pick does not give him first round pedigree. He was still a second rounder.

Blach - again, I like him, but he is still a low-ceiling journeyman type. Likely top-10 in this system, but not #4.

Suarez - I did not like him when we drafted him. A low-ceiling, high-floor guy with injury issues? Snooze. But he has done well since coming on board. I think I might like him a bit better than Blach, but Blach has shown it in the majors, so I think I agree that Blach should be rated higher. And Blach is a lefty, and that adds a lot of value.

Duggar - Now we are getting into some of the fun guys. I actually like Slater better, but the difference between the two is not worth debating.

Shaw - I have him as my #3, and he is closer to #2 than he is to #4 (and he isn't close to #2). He plays a low-leverage position, and he doesn't play it well, but he has a difference making bat. The Giants haven't had one of those in the system since Belt and Joseph. I think he is prime trade-fodder, and that is OK. I think he can be a solid centerpiece to a trade in July.

Quinn - Way too early for this high a ranking. That may be more of an endictment on the system than it is about your ranking, though. Even when JCP was new to the system, I never considered him this high a prospect. And I always liked him (still do).

Fabian - probably the one prospect in the system with the most helium right now. I am not going to pretend to know much about him, but I gotta say, my excitement is certainly tempered. Peguero, Rodriguez, Cabrera, Edie, Javier, etc have really dulled my senses.

Slater - He had a monster year in '16. At high levels. That is far from a guarantee, but he has still been rather consistent during his pro career at multiple levels. If McParker fails (or gets hurt), he and Duggar will be given shots, so we will see how it works out rather soon. As with Shaw, I think his main value may be as a trade chip.

I sound negative here, but I don't really mean to. I am just offering counter arguments. While I don't like the top of the farm (Arroyo and Beede are fine, but neither jumps out as a sure-fire (or even likely) all-star type), I think our top 30 or so could be top 15 in most systems. And that offers almost as much value as a top-heavy system since we will have more surprises than the average system (Duffy, Panik, Brown, Blach, etc).

 

[SFGRTB]

I have not paid much attention to the farm this past year or so. So I do not have a top 10 right now. But let my just offer a few devils advocate arguments against a few of your rankings...

Arroyo - can't argue with anything you have said, except that I believe he is the clear #1 in the system. He may not be a prototypical corner infielder, but he seems to be a bit of a poor-man's Buster Posey. He MAY not be a future all-star (he also might be), but I expect him to be a core player for at least a decade. I am not convinced that will be with the Giants, though.

Beede - he is the clear #2 in the system. But he is not an Ace. And he may not be a legit #2 either. Especially on a team that is used to having at least 2 Aces. The Posey/Bum comparisons are obvious, and maybe that will haunt these two their whole careers. Tough to live up to the expectations of a couple HOFers.

Reynolds - I like him, but #3? Really? After just a half season? This guy has (relative, potential) disappointment written all over him. His D is not good enough for center, his bat isn't good enough for the corner. I would put him top 10, but no way I put him this high. At least not yet. He needs to show me more at the pro level first. And just because he was OUR first pick does not give him first round pedigree. He was still a second rounder.

Blach - again, I like him, but he is still a low-ceiling journeyman type. Likely top-10 in this system, but not #4.

Suarez - I did not like him when we drafted him. A low-ceiling, high-floor guy with injury issues? Snooze. But he has done well since coming on board. I think I might like him a bit better than Blach, but Blach has shown it in the majors, so I think I agree that Blach should be rated higher. And Blach is a lefty, and that adds a lot of value.

Duggar - Now we are getting into some of the fun guys. I actually like Slater better, but the difference between the two is not worth debating.

Shaw - I have him as my #3, and he is closer to #2 than he is to #4 (and he isn't close to #2). He plays a low-leverage position, and he doesn't play it well, but he has a difference making bat. The Giants haven't had one of those in the system since Belt and Joseph. I think he is prime trade-fodder, and that is OK. I think he can be a solid centerpiece to a trade in July.

Quinn - Way too early for this high a ranking. That may be more of an endictment on the system than it is about your ranking, though. Even when JCP was new to the system, I never considered him this high a prospect. And I always liked him (still do).

Fabian - probably the one prospect in the system with the most helium right now. I am not going to pretend to know much about him, but I gotta say, my excitement is certainly tempered. Peguero, Rodriguez, Cabrera, Edie, Javier, etc have really dulled my senses.

Slater - He had a monster year in '16. At high levels. That is far from a guarantee, but he has still been rather consistent during his pro career at multiple levels. If McParker fails (or gets hurt), he and Duggar will be given shots, so we will see how it works out rather soon. As with Shaw, I think his main value may be as a trade chip.

I sound negative here, but I don't really mean to. I am just offering counter arguments. While I don't like the top of the farm (Arroyo and Beede are fine, but neither jumps out as a sure-fire (or even likely) all-star type), I think our top 30 or so could be top 15 in most systems. And that offers almost as much value as a top-heavy system since we will have more surprises than the average system (Duffy, Panik, Brown, Blach, etc).

Andrew Suarez is a lefty too! Gives him a little uptick. He's a 4th starter at best.

I originally had Reynolds and Shaw flipped, but I knocked Shaw for his defense and position. Reynolds gets bumped because he's going to be playing CF for now, and his bat plays big time there.

I'll admit, I'm always a sucker for Latin prospects. Fabian's game actually reminds me of Peguero, now that you bring him up. Peguero, remember, was a big prospect before his knee injury. He was never the same after that.

I thought about flipping Slater and Quinn, but they play the same position and Quinn can do everything better than Slater.

I don't typically include relievers in my top 10, so guys like Okert and Moronta weren't considered, and guys like Coonrod and Gregorio (who is showing up on a lot of people's top-10's) are penalized because I think they are destined for the Pen. That's why some guys played up in my rankings.

I think what this really says about the Giants is that basically from 3-20, it is really close and you could make a case for anybody at any position. The Giants have a number of guys who will be able to contribute somehow in the big leagues, and they are also one of the best teams in squeezing out anything they can out of their organizational players. When you have a team that is pretty much filled with guys under contract, it's good to have depth. We don't have to rely on a top prospect to hit, we just need them to fill in. We only have a couple positions of need, the OF and 3B, and what do you know, our top prospect plays 3B and we have tons of OF prospects now of various degrees.

If you took out Arroyo and added in Moncada, I think this would easily be seen as a top 10 system.

 

[LHG]

1a. Christian Arroyo, 3B - Predicted starting level: AAA

• It was too hard for me to decide between Arroyo and Beede, so I copped out. Arroyo has a spectacular hit tool that will carry him in the big leagues. He's strong enough to belt double-digit homers, but is more likely to use the gaps and rack up a ton of doubles. Power tends to develop with age. Don't be discouraged with the pedestrian numbers last year; Richmond's home park is one of the biggest suppressors of homeruns in MiLB, the pitching talent from A+ to AA is the biggest jump of all the levels, and Arroyo was the 3rd youngest player in AA (a good 2-3 years younger than the average), and he still managed 36 doubles (2 from the most in AA), to increase his walk rate and decrease his strikeout rate. He still needs to improve his walk rate, but it's not like Sandoval where he never see's a pitch he doesn't like, he waits for his pitch and attacks it. He has a glowing personality that people gravitate to and is a clubhouse leader, AKA great makeup. I think he could cause a spark in Spring Training, he'll probably be in big league camp for a long time, but ultimately spend most of 2017 in AAA playing 3B the majority of the time. A September call-up is highly probable.

1b. Tyler Beede, SP - Predicted starting level: AAA

• See what I did there? It's pretty cool that the Giants top 2 prospects are both right on the cusp of the big leagues. It hasn't happened like that since 2009 when Posey and Bumgarner were still prospects, though Beede and Arroyo aren't anywhere close to MVPosey and World Series Legend Bum. Beede has had quite the MiLB career so far. Went from flamethrower who was effectively wild out of the draft, to a soft cutter sinker guy pitching to contact, to now where he has a happy medium of it all. The Giants changed his delivery and forced him to throw new pitches since he was drafted, but this year they let the new Beede off the leash and he responded in a big way. Part of his bad looking 2015 was due to fatigue, but he showed up in great shape and was able to be effective all 2016, leading the league in ERA, 2nd in K's, and 6th in IP. As late as August, he was throwing 97 late in games. That's a great sign. So he basically throws the kitchen sink at you with a 4-seam, sinker and cut fastballs, 12-6 curve, and a slider. And if he's around the big league staff enough, I'm sure he'll develop some sort of changeup. He's going to be competing for the 5th starter spot and make some noise, but like Arroyo will spend most of 2017 in AAA. A September call-up is likely.

3. Bryan Reynolds, CF - Predicted starting level: A+

• Our 1st pick in the 2016 draft. Bat-first center-fielder does everything well, nothing great. There's concern if he can play CF well enough (especially in AT&T) where his bat will play way up, or if he has to move to a corner where his bat will play down. If everything goes really well for the kid I can't get a Randy Winn comp out of my head, obviously that's his high-end comp. If he does well in San Jose, he could be in Richmond by June, like 2015 draftees Duggar, Shaw, Suarez, and Hinijosa.

4. Ty Blach, SP - Predicted starting level: AAA

• Cain will be given every opportunity and then some to be the 5th starter, and at this point I'm giving it to him. With that, and a full bullpen, I think Blach ends up in AAA and keeps doing his thing there. We know what he is. He's not going to go out and shut out the Dodgers every time out, but he's a Kirk Rueter type crafty lefty who makes up for his lack of sharp pitches for being really good everywhere he can control.

5. Andrew Suarez, SP - Predicted starting level: AAA

• Suarez and Blach are so close, but I gave the edge to Blach because he did it in his brief time in the majors and dominated AAA, whereas Suarez hasn't pitched in AAA yet. I do think Suarez has a higher ceiling than Blach though. His pitches are s little sharper, the fastball a little faster, and his slider is a legit out pitch that Blach doesn't really have. Suarez too has great command. Suarez has a long injury history which is something to keep in mind. A 2015 2nd round pick, he's had such a quick rise because he is an advanced pitcher. It's possible he stays in AA because of the numbers game (Giants literally have too many arms to start in the upper-levels), but he'll finish out the year in AAA.

6. Steven Duggar, CF - Predicted starting level: AAA

• I really like Duggar. People are all over the board with him, but I think at worst he's a 5th OF who can play CF and RF well. At best he can be a 3rd OFer. His game is OBP centered, and he has good raw power that he hasn't tapped into yet and enough speed to be a double-double player. Hitting .321 in AA is no easy thing, and no one is blocking him in AAA, so I see no reason he can't be in Sacramento. A 2015 5th-round pick, it's incredible the Giants have 2 guys right on the cusp from the 2015 class.

7. Chris Shaw, 1B/DH - Predicted starting level: AA

• After Shaw's brutal start in Richmond (batted .206), he finished out hitting .279/.322/.505 after the slump. The OBP is a bit lower for someone with so much power, but there is no denying 33 homeruns since his debut in the summer of 2015, and his walk rate was much better in Salem and San Jose. His K rate is also very respectable. The exciting thing about Shaw is he has a good enough hit tool and doesn't strikeout enough to be merely a TOP player. He should be able to hit plenty of double along with those homers to be an offensive force. The problem is where does he play? Belt is blocking him at 1st, and he's not even good there yet. He probably starts in AA, MiLB free agents Michael Morse, Kyle Blanks and Chris Marrero will probably have 1st cracks at 1B/DH in AAA.

8. Heath Quinn, RF - Predicted starting level: A+

• Part 2 of the San Jose outfield, Quinn has the combination of skills you dream of for power hitters. Good contact rate, good walk rate, respectable K rate and some speed. Think Josh Willingham. Pitchers can't cheat with that combination of skills, and while he doesn't have the raw power that Shaw has, his power is still likely to translate to the majors into the 20s+. He's also not considered a bad defender in the OF. 2016 3rd rounder will start in San Jose and could be in AA if he mashes.

9. Sandro Fabian, RF - Predicted starting Level: A-

• Hopefully the one who can break the International curse, Fabian already has great contact ability and a real smooth swing. It's compact and doesn't have many holes. He doesn't project out to be a massive power hitter, but there's enough for him to be a corner outfielder. Unlike many of the high-profile International prospects, he is not oozing with tools and athleticism. He's of your typical Giants mold, contact hitter first. He's not a burner, but he's not slow. He already has an advanced approach and he's only 18 (19 2 days). He should start in Augusta, which would be aggressive for his age, but they were aggressive with Fox and Miller and they were way more raw. He led the Arizona League in batting average and slugging %. Cross your fingers!

10. Austin Slater, LF - Predicted starting level: AAA

• It's hard not to include a guy who has hit right around or above .300 at every level with great walk rates and surprising power. Slater is kind of like Matt Duffy in that he's always overlooked despite continuously putting up good numbers and improves on them. Slater is of the typical Giants mold. They love these type of guys. He was an outfielder at Stanford, drafted as a second baseman, then switched back to the OF last year. A lot of his power output came in one series in Reno, which is a launching pad, but he was showing power in AA too with a .172 ISO, which is great for Richmond. I still think he projects best as a utility guy, but if he's hitting well in AAA, and MacParker are not in SF, we could see him starting in the bigs at some point.

So that's my top 10. I might even throw in 10 more because of how deep this system goes. I'm sure Cal will chime in with his list too! I look forward to it!

Nice write-up! In terms of assignments, I think you are correct on most of these but, with the signing of Hwang, I wonder if Arroyo won't start the year in AA. Unless Hwang makes the big league team, then I could see Arroyo in AAA, depending on who gets sent down from the MLB roster.

I also think Suarez will probably start the year at AA as well. The AAA rotation will more likely have Blach, Beede, Blackburn, Crick, Gage, Gregorio, Lujan, Romero, Roth, Slania, Stratton and Albert Suarez all competing for the 5 spots. Sure, some will start on the dl, a couple will get released and one of them will probably become the long man in SF's bullpen, but there just seems to be too many for Andrew Suarez to get a shot right away.

Duggar could possibly be sent back to AA to start the season as well. The AAA team typically only carries 3 outfielders on the roster and that they will probably be Hunter Cole, Austin Slater and Mac Williamson, with Wynton Bernard, Tyler Horan, Carlos Moncrief, Justin Ruggiano and Myles Schroder on the outside looking in. I think that Duggar may start the year in Richmond with Daniel Carbonell's last stand and Dylan Davis' first shot in AA.

Lastly, Fabian may sit in extended spring training one last time and then go to Salem. He is still young and the Giants may want to give one last look at Jean Angomas, Gustavo Cabrera, Shawon Dunston, Jr and Seth Harrison in Augusta first. Chuckie Jones and Johneshwy Fargas wait in the wings as well.

 

[calsnowskier]

I thought Chuckie hung them up last year(??)

 

[LHG]

I thought Chuckie hung them up last year(??)

He un-retired last year. The conversation about that starts here - http://sportshoop.la/threads/down-on-the-farm-2016.206524/page-29#post-8741682

 

[SFGRTB]

Nice write-up! In terms of assignments, I think you are correct on most of these but, with the signing of Hwang, I wonder if Arroyo won't start the year in AA. Unless Hwang makes the big league team, then I could see Arroyo in AAA, depending on who gets sent down from the MLB roster.

I also think Suarez will probably start the year at AA as well. The AAA rotation will more likely have Blach, Beede, Blackburn, Crick, Gage, Gregorio, Lujan, Romero, Roth, Slania, Stratton and Albert Suarez all competing for the 5 spots. Sure, some will start on the dl, a couple will get released and one of them will probably become the long man in SF's bullpen, but there just seems to be too many for Andrew Suarez to get a shot right away.

Duggar could possibly be sent back to AA to start the season as well. The AAA team typically only carries 3 outfielders on the roster and that they will probably be Hunter Cole, Austin Slater and Mac Williamson, with Wynton Bernard, Tyler Horan, Carlos Moncrief, Justin Ruggiano and Myles Schroder on the outside looking in. I think that Duggar may start the year in Richmond with Daniel Carbonell's last stand and Dylan Davis' first shot in AA.

Lastly, Fabian may sit in extended spring training one last time and then go to Salem. He is still young and the Giants may want to give one last look at Jean Angomas, Gustavo Cabrera, Shawon Dunston, Jr and Seth Harrison in Augusta first. Chuckie Jones and Johneshwy Fargas wait in the wings as well.

Thanks!

I'm going to preface this with the fact that the Giants have been super aggressive lately with many of their prospects, and I expect that to continue. Veteran free agents are most likely not going to get in the way of some guys.

Alex Pavlovic pretty much confirmed that Arroyo was going to be in AAA and play at 3B starting in 2017. Not sure how Hwang changes things, whether Hwang is the guy sent to AAA or Gonnor, or EA or Kelby. The latter two probably stick at SS and 2B, Gonnor could slide to DH/1B and play 3B in a pinch to keep him honest. I 100% expect the Giants will want to get Arroyo out of the Eastern League and close to the bigs, both in level and millage.

Yeah I wrote about the starting pitching depth we have in the upper minors and it's tough to see how it shakes out. On one hand, Suarez made 22 starts in AA and had a terrific 2nd half and probably earned a promotion. Guys like Lujan and Romero shouldn't be blocking Suarez in the grand scheme of things, and it's probably safer to keep Crick in Richmond rather than exposing him to the PCL offense (at this point, it's probably doesn't make a difference - he may even get DFA'd in a couple days for Hundley). On the other hand, Beede, Blackburn, Stratton, and Gregorio have spots waiting for them in AAA, and one of (or both) Blach and Albert Suarez have a spot too. That's 5 or 6 guys already. Giants often run with 6 man rotations in the minors, but 7 is not common and probably something they don't want to do (I wouldn't). I think you may be right and he starts in AA.

In the past, our AAA team only carried 3 OFers because of personnel (lack of). But this year they should be carrying more. I'm basing this off the assumption Mac Williamson makes the big league team (far from guaranteed). Slater-Duggar-Ruggiano-Cole-Bernard in AAA. Davis-Moncrief-Horan-Carbonell and Jebavy? Paulino? in AA. That's how I see it shaking out for now.

With Fabian, it's certainly possible. He's still so young there could even be things they want to re-tool. But I just look at Lucius Fox, and Jalen Miller, those 2 guys were so far behind where Fabian is now, and they got the promotions to Augusta at 19. At those lower levels, guys need breaks more often (mental and physical) as they get use to playing over the long season so you see more stacked rosters. I think all those guys you mentioned will be in Augusta (Fargas in San Jose, Chuckie in extended ST as he gains strength again).

It's still early to tell, and Spring Training goes a long way of placing these guys. If a prospect comes in out of shape, sometimes they hold them back in extended ST and get them on a better program. Injuries pop up. Are guys doing what is asked of them? Time will tell.

 

[LHG]

Thanks!

I'm going to preface this with the fact that the Giants have been super aggressive lately with many of their prospects, and I expect that to continue. Veteran free agents are most likely not going to get in the way of some guys.

Alex Pavlovic pretty much confirmed that Arroyo was going to be in AAA and play at 3B starting in 2017. Not sure how Hwang changes things, whether Hwang is the guy sent to AAA or Gonnor, or EA or Kelby. The latter two probably stick at SS and 2B, Gonnor could slide to DH/1B and play 3B in a pinch to keep him honest. I 100% expect the Giants will want to get Arroyo out of the Eastern League and close to the bigs, both in level and millage.

Yeah I wrote about the starting pitching depth we have in the upper minors and it's tough to see how it shakes out. On one hand, Suarez made 22 starts in AA and had a terrific 2nd half and probably earned a promotion. Guys like Lujan and Romero shouldn't be blocking Suarez in the grand scheme of things, and it's probably safer to keep Crick in Richmond rather than exposing him to the PCL offense (at this point, it's probably doesn't make a difference - he may even get DFA'd in a couple days for Hundley). On the other hand, Beede, Blackburn, Stratton, and Gregorio have spots waiting for them in AAA, and one of (or both) Blach and Albert Suarez have a spot too. That's 5 or 6 guys already. Giants often run with 6 man rotations in the minors, but 7 is not common and probably something they don't want to do (I wouldn't). I think you may be right and he starts in AA.

In the past, our AAA team only carried 3 OFers because of personnel (lack of). But this year they should be carrying more. I'm basing this off the assumption Mac Williamson makes the big league team (far from guaranteed). Slater-Duggar-Ruggiano-Cole-Bernard in AAA. Davis-Moncrief-Horan-Carbonell and Jebavy? Paulino? in AA. That's how I see it shaking out for now.

With Fabian, it's certainly possible. He's still so young there could even be things they want to re-tool. But I just look at Lucius Fox, and Jalen Miller, those 2 guys were so far behind where Fabian is now, and they got the promotions to Augusta at 19. At those lower levels, guys need breaks more often (mental and physical) as they get use to playing over the long season so you see more stacked rosters. I think all those guys you mentioned will be in Augusta (Fargas in San Jose, Chuckie in extended ST as he gains strength again).

It's still early to tell, and Spring Training goes a long way of placing these guys. If a prospect comes in out of shape, sometimes they hold them back in extended ST and get them on a better program. Injuries pop up. Are guys doing what is asked of them? Time will tell.

Not sure I completely agree that they've been super aggressive. I've seen some more radical movement than in the past few years in the lower minors, but I guess they could just continue with that in the uppers. However, they've also signed more minor league free agents this off season and even if they cut more than they have in the past, it still creates a log jam. With Hwang in the mix, two of EA, Kebly, Gonnor and Hwang will be cut from the major league squad. All but Gonnor would essentially have to or want to take the assignment. I think that makes things less clear cut for Arroyo in AAA.

If Williamson makes the team, what will happen with either Gorkys or Parker? Do either land at AAA? All the infielders make it difficult to carry so many outfielders on rosters. The way I figure it, at least 16 position players will need to be dl or cut in spring training in order to whittle the AAA and AA rosters down to OP numbers. And that is with Jebavy and Paulino starting in SJ.

It will be interesting to see how everything shakes out. I'm not trying to say you are wrong or I am right. I've been wrong on predictions many times. I do like the idea of the Giants not sticking guys in levels where they've already proven themselves. I do hope you are right on these calls.

 

[SFGRTB]

Not sure I completely agree that they've been super aggressive. I've seen some more radical movement than in the past few years in the lower minors, but I guess they could just continue with that in the uppers. However, they've also signed more minor league free agents this off season and even if they cut more than they have in the past, it still creates a log jam. With Hwang in the mix, two of EA, Kebly, Gonnor and Hwang will be cut from the major league squad. All but Gonnor would essentially have to or want to take the assignment. I think that makes things less clear cut for Arroyo in AAA.

If Williamson makes the team, what will happen with either Gorkys or Parker? Do either land at AAA? All the infielders make it difficult to carry so many outfielders on rosters. The way I figure it, at least 16 position players will need to be dl or cut in spring training in order to whittle the AAA and AA rosters down to OP numbers. And that is with Jebavy and Paulino starting in SJ.

It will be interesting to see how everything shakes out. I'm not trying to say you are wrong or I am right. I've been wrong on predictions many times. I do like the idea of the Giants not sticking guys in levels where they've already proven themselves. I do hope you are right on these calls.

You know, I keep overlooking Gorkys. Does he have options? According to our page he does not. I don't think the Giants want to risk losing Parker, so he's almost assured a spot. He can play CF too. Gorkys could be the odd man out. I could see a scenario where Gonnor, Hundley, Parker, Gorkys, Mac and Kelby or Hwang make the team too. I think Nunez's versatility gives the Giants some options.

Oh yeah, I'm not going to pretend like I have an ear in the Giants office and know what they're planning to do. This year more than past years they have some decisions to make. You've brought it up many times, the Giants have brought in many more MiLB free agents from outside the organization this offseason. Maybe they keep some of those guys down early like Bernard, Calixte and Jose Dominguez who have shown a lot of talent, to work on them in extended ST and adjust their games, and that's how they plan to sort out PT early?

 

[SFGRTB]

According to MLB.com, the Giants have 2 top-100 prospects, Christian Arroyo (#79) and Tyler Beede (#99).

Shane Turner was on MLB Network today discussing the Giants minor leagues. Turner is the Giants' Director of Player Development. Some highlights from him:

• Acknowledged Arroyo was one of the youngest players in AA last year and they think they saw the power potential with his doubles. He has a good idea of the strikezone, but sometimes thinks he can hit everything because he barrels up so many balls. Shane didn't say this, but he insinuated it, if Arroyo get's more selective and waits for his pitch his power could really come around when he barrels up good pitches to hit.
• Shane said Arroyo's instincts really took over at 3B and he was making every play over there. He will play in majors based off of ML need.
• 2015 Beede was fatigued in the 2nd half, but came into 2016 really strong, especially in the lower half. He really learned how to use his fastball, both when to use movement and how to use movement and that everything fell into place for him as a result. He's a quick learner, bright kid, competitive and a hard worker.
• No one inside the Giants organization was surprised that Ty Blach was able to handle the big spotlight pitching in September. They know they can rely on him to be the 5th starter, or to be waiting in the wings in AAA always ready to go. It even kinda sounded like Shane was hoping Blach get's the 5th starter spot.

 

[calsnowskier]

• It even kinda sounded like Shane was hoping Blach get's the 5th starter spot.

To be fair, he is the director of player development. It is in his best interest for Blach to win the job...

 

[SFGRTB]

To be fair, he is the director of player development. It is in his best interest for Blach to win the job...

It's sort of in his title isn't it

 

[calsnowskier]

Larry Baer was on Tolbert and Lund this afternoon. They were talking about kids who may be a part of the future, and he said the biggest name that could become a major player is...

Steven Duggar