2017 MLB Draft

[SFGRTB]

Monday, June 12th, the 2017 MLB draft will commence. The Giants hold the 19th pick in the first round, the 58th pick in the 2nd round, the 96th pick in the 3rd round, and from there the 21st pick of rounds 4-40.

The Giants have $6,363,600 to spend on the first 10 rounds of this draft.

The Giants typically stick to college talent in the first 10 rounds, selecting only 3 high school players in the first 10 rounds since 2014 (2 in 2014, 1 in 2015, none last year). This strategy allows the Giants to snag college juniors or high schoolers falling out of the first round and sign them to over-slot deals later in the draft, and taking college seniors or low-profile college players and sign them to under-slot deals earlier in the draft. Bryan Reynolds and Matt Krook, 2 first round talents with concerns, signed over-slot deals in the 2nd and 4th rounds for the Giants, while Ryan Howard and Caleb Baragar were not really on the radar as high profile college players, signed under-slot deals in the 5th and 9th rounds. The Giants not having a 1st round pick, which lightened their bonus pool considerably, is probably the main reason we didn't see a high school player taken in the first 10 rounds by the Giants that draft.

This approach keeps farm systems stocked with talent and more potential ML contributors, but lack the high upside type of talent you find among high school amateurs. They also have suffered from getting high end college talent because of their team record. Some call what the Giants do "playing safe", and while it may seem that way, it's not always the case. They are just deciding to spread their wealth around a bit more, instead of investing big into one or two players. We are seeing the potential benefits of this in from the 2015 draft, with Shaw, Andrew Suarez, Hinojosa, Duggar, Cory Taylor, and Tyler Cyr, 6 of their 11 picks in the first 10 rounds (Shaw was a supplemental pick from Boston) reaching AA just 2 years later and preforming well.

After the 10th round, all bonuses are $100K. This is where scouts can really make their money, either finding talent hidden away, or being able to convince high schoolers to forgo school (and potentially bigger bonuses in 3 years) and go pro right away.

So, what will the Giants do? Will they continue the status quo, bringing in college players in the early rounds? Or will they change course, target high upside talent early? I think if there was any year to change course, even just for one draft, it would be this one. There is a lot of prep talent out there this, and if the Giants are selling off some pieces at the deadline, they'll be able to afford some risk here. I think it will be a nice indicator of the direction of the team once we see who the Giants pick.

Below, I'll go over some potential targets.

 

[SFGRTB]

This is a handful of names that we might hear the Giants take with their 1st pick:

HS Prep talent:

Jordon Adell - OF
Shane Baez - RHP
Trevor Rogers - LHP
Bubba Thompson - OF
Sam Carlson - RHP
Nick Pratto - 1B/OF
Matt Sauer - RHP
Luis Campusano - C

College talent:

Evan White - 1B
Jeren Kendall - OF
Jake Burger - 3B
Pavin Smith - 1B
Logan Warmouth - SS
David Peterson - LHP
Stuart Fairchild - OF
Brent Rooker - 1B
Griffen Canning - RHP
Brendan Little - LHP

Starting with the prep talent, Adell has probably hit is way out of the Giants reach, but if he falls they'd be all over him. Campusano is a likely 2nd/3rd round target if he falls that far, but there's a chance he is taken in the 1st. The Giants like him a lot, and he was a huge Giants' fan growing up (and I'm sure a big idol of Buster Posey). The Giants have been active in Sam Carlson's recent starts and I think he's possibly the most likely choice in this group combining all the factors involved.

For college talent, Jeren Kendall would represent a real nice pick if he falls (doubtful). He's been subject to Jacoby Ellsbury comps since he was in high school, and his college experience has done nothing but enforce that. He's a complete package. I wouldn't get hopes up that he falls though. Evan White has been connected to the Giants a lot. He's a strange player for a 1st base profile. Best way to describe him is right-handed J.T. Snow with top-end speed. Gold Glove potential at 1st, line-drive swing, great hit tool. It's possible he ends up in CF. Another guy the Giants have been connected to is Logan Warmouth. He fits the Joe Panik/Christian Arroyo profile, but with top end speed. Warmouth would very much be a "status quo" pick for the Giants (though he is climbing boards, may not be available). Burger and Smith are bat first guys, either would be nice gets if they fall. Smith had a nice Cape Cod League which is always something to note with the Giants. Peterson has lost a bit of steam lately, but he would be an excellent selection if he falls (no, not biased at all ). Big lefty with 2 plus pitches has the makings of number 2/3 starter. The Giants drafted Brendan Little in the 36th round out of high school in 2015. He went the JC route to get back into the draft sooner. Likely the Giants target him again (maybe hope he falls to the 2nd round). Fairchild is a 2nd round target, but might climb into the 1st round. It's possible the Giants take him in the 1st, get him on a slot or under-slot deal, and go big in the 2nd round with Campusano or another high school guy. I think Pavin Smith or David Peterson are the 2 most likely picks, all factors involved.

I've put a lot more time into this draft than in past drafts, so while I'm probably going to be completely off base on who the Giants pick, I'll feel a little bit less off base about it

 

[SFGRTB]

Unfortunately I'll be working during the draft so I won't be able to give initial updates on who they take. Only 1 pick today for the Giants. There's a lot of way to go, but expect the Giants to go with college talent. Depending who's there, could be very good or kinda disappointing.

 

[LHG]

Unfortunately I'll be working during the draft so I won't be able to give initial updates on who they take. Only 1 pick today for the Giants. There's a lot of way to go, but expect the Giants to go with college talent. Depending who's there, could be very good or kinda disappointing.

Who do you think is the most likely player they pick today?

 

[calsnowskier]

Who do you think is the most likely player they pick today?

Everything I have read says this is a tough draft to "mock". It is deep, but not top heavy (similar to last year). Also, there are a couple players who were expected to to top 5 or 10 with MAJOR issues that could cause them to even go undrafted (Luke Heimlich).

 

[SFGRTB]

Who do you think is the most likely player they pick today?

As Cal said, tough to mock. This draft there's been 4 different number 1's in the last few weeks. One days it's Hunter Green, then it was Brandon McKay, then it was Clayton, then it settled on Wright for a few weeks and now it's back to McKay.

Trying to figure out who the Giants will take is tough since their strategy could be BPA, or status quo, or maybe they've cut a deal.

If they go BPA, I think Kendall seems to be falling a bit and could stop at the Giants. Or Peterson if they go pitching.

If they go status quo, I think it's Warmouth.

If they go prep, I think it's Sam Carlson.

If they've cut some sort of deal, look for Campusano. People will freak out because he's a catcher, but he's years away from being ready. If they take him, look for them to snag a falling college guy tomorrow.

But frankly, it's so tough to say, unlike the NBA or NFL drafts. If the Giants take any of the 18 players I listed above, I'd feel pretty good that I was in the ballpark haha.

So to answer your question, I think right now if I were to pick 1 guy, I'd say Carlson. That's my dart throw.

 

[calsnowskier]

SFGRTB, do you think Heimlich will be drafted? He clearly has top-of-the-draft talent, but would any org touch him with a ten-foot pole? I can't imagine anyone will take him. Even if he had Griffey/Harper/Rodriguez hype (which he does not), I am not sure anyone would take him.

 

[LHG]

SFGRTB, do you think Heimlich will be drafted? He clearly has top-of-the-draft talent, but would any org touch him with a ten-foot pole? I can't imagine anyone will take him. Even if he had Griffey/Harper/Rodriguez hype (which he does not), I am not sure anyone would take him.

If they do take him, would that be called the Heimlich maneuver?

 

[calsnowskier]

If they do take him, would that be called the Heimlich maneuver?

 

[SFGRTB]

SFGRTB, do you think Heimlich will be drafted? He clearly has top-of-the-draft talent, but would any org touch him with a ten-foot pole? I can't imagine anyone will take him. Even if he had Griffey/Harper/Rodriguez hype (which he does not), I am not sure anyone would take him.

No. I just can't see it

 

[SFGRTB]

Lol, I just realized I referred to "Clayton" being a potential 1st overall pick thinking of Royce Clayton for some reason. His name is Royce Lewis.

edit: also, we are getting the first 75 picks tonight. So we'll see 2 Giants picks.

 

[calsnowskier]

Lol, I just realized I referred to "Clayton" being a potential 1st overall pick thinking of Royce Clayton for some reason. His name is Royce Lewis.

edit: also, we are getting the first 75 picks tonight. So we'll see 2 Giants picks.

And nobody in the BA will realize...

 

[LHG]

As Cal said, tough to mock. This draft there's been 4 different number 1's in the last few weeks. One days it's Hunter Green, then it was Brandon McKay, then it was Clayton, then it settled on Wright for a few weeks and now it's back to McKay.

Trying to figure out who the Giants will take is tough since their strategy could be BPA, or status quo, or maybe they've cut a deal.

If they go BPA, I think Kendall seems to be falling a bit and could stop at the Giants. Or Peterson if they go pitching.

If they go status quo, I think it's Warmouth.

If they go prep, I think it's Sam Carlson.

If they've cut some sort of deal, look for Campusano. People will freak out because he's a catcher, but he's years away from being ready. If they take him, look for them to snag a falling college guy tomorrow.

But frankly, it's so tough to say, unlike the NBA or NFL drafts. If the Giants take any of the 18 players I listed above, I'd feel pretty good that I was in the ballpark haha.

So to answer your question, I think right now if I were to pick 1 guy, I'd say Carlson. That's my dart throw.

Thanks. I used to follow the draft closely when I was a teenager but stopped doing so in college. So your analysis is very informative.

That being said, I'd be surprised that they would go for a catcher in the 1st round, not because of Posey, but because of Garcia.

 

[calsnowskier]

Thanks. I used to follow the draft closely when I was a teenager but stopped doing so in college. So your analysis is very informative.

That being said, I'd be surprised that they would go for a catcher in the 1st round, not because of Posey, but because of Garcia.

I think they will go BPA, but they will also try to stear it towards pitching. The basically ignored the mound last your, and the system is getting a bit light in pitching prospects.

Spoiler

TINSTAAPP

 

[Stokes1931]

If Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are available in the draft, I think we should snap 'em up.

 

[calsnowskier]

If Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are available in the draft, I think we should snap 'em up.

When Trout was drafted, I remember Harold Reynolds going crazy that he lasted as long as he did, and he said Trout would end up being the best player in that draft.

 

[calsnowskier]

Giants coming up. About 4 picks to go...

 

[calsnowskier]

Giants are on the clock...

 

[calsnowskier]

Heliot Ramos.

HS OF bat.

Analysts don't seem impressed, but they are acknowledging that the Giants go against the grain, and are more often than not right when they do.

 

[stanford the manford]

power, speed, and a cannon - i approve