2016 Regular season thread

[hattersgonnahate]

While that does sound intriguing, I'd be worried about having too much time off and losing any mojo we'd have.

The problem is that practically any other scenario would involve the Orioles being tied for the 2nd wild card, which is even worse. If we do want to play Detroit for the most favorable match-up as soon as possible (i.e. without having to wait for another tiebreaker game to finish first), the following needs to happen:

• Baltimore wins at least 1 of the last 3 games: 88-74 or better
  
• Detroit goes 3-1 in the last 4 games: 88-74
  
• Toronto goes 0-3 in the last 3 games: 87-75
• Seattle loses at least one of the last 4 games: 87-75 or worse

But that's a lot to ask. (Assuming that each game is a coin flip, the probability of this happening is only ~2.6%. Of course, the probability of a 3-way tie for the 2nd wildcard is even lower: ~0.29% for the specific scenario I described earlier.)

 

[mikeytheman247]

The ideal situation would be something like this:

• Baltimore goes 2-1 in the last 3 games: 89-73
• Toronto goes 1-2 in the last 3 games: 88-74
• Detroit goes 3-1 in the last 4 games (including the make-up game with Cleveland): 88-74
• Seattle goes 4-0 in the last 4 games: 88-74

In other words: A 3-way tie for the 2nd wild card while the Orioles get the 1st wildcard outright (which means being able to wait for the dust to settle during the tiebreaker games).

I think the Sox will kinda tank the last 3 games. Right now Texas has the best record in the AL and would play the wildcard winner. I'm sure the Red Sox would rather play Cleveland than Baltimore/Toronto. I can see the Sox not starting any of their starters.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

I think the Sox will kinda tank the last 3 games. Right now Texas has the best record in the AL and would play the wildcard winner. I'm sure the Red Sox would rather play Cleveland than Baltimore/Toronto. I can see the Sox not starting any of their starters.

Either way, the most likely scenario still involves the AL East sending 3 teams to the postseason... with the Blue Jays as the 1st wild card and the Orioles as the 2nd wild card. (After all, Toronto holds the tiebreaker; assuming coin flips for each of the 3 remaining games for both teams, the Orioles only have a ~34% chance of gaining a game against the Blue Jays.)

 

[mikeytheman247]

Either way, the most likely scenario still involves the AL East sending 3 teams to the postseason... with the Blue Jays as the 1st wild card and the Orioles as the 2nd wild card. (After all, Toronto holds the tiebreaker; assuming coin flips for each of the 3 remaining games for both teams, the Orioles only have a ~34% chance of gaining a game against the Blue Jays.)

Agreed that 3 east teams will make it. We'll see what happens this weekend. If the O's can take 2 games that should get it done.

 

[all4ripken]

WTF is Buck thinking leaving Miley out there in the 7th?? The bullpen hasn't let up a run in like 20 innings, and this is a must-win....smfh

 

[all4ripken]

Well done Brach, well done...

 

[hattersgonnahate]

WTF is Buck thinking leaving Miley out there in the 7th?? The bullpen hasn't let up a run in like 20 innings, and this is a must-win....smfh

Well done Brach, well done...

I'll write it off as an outlier since Brach's control is normally not this bad. (Only 9 strikes out of 25 pitches?) At least this is happening now as opposed to during the wild-card game...

(Anyway... time to root for Toronto to lose and Detroit to win so that winning tomorrow would be enough to clinch the 1st wild card?)

 

[all4ripken]

I'll write it off as an outlier since Brach's control is normally not this bad. (Only 9 strikes out of 25 pitches?) At least this is happening now as opposed to during the wild-card game...

No guarantee they're in the wild card game yet...

 

[UVA_Guy81]

No guarantee they're in the wild card game yet...

Well at least we have one less team to worry about now that Seattle is officially eliminated. They were the team that scared me the most of the ones that were remaining.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Why are we trying to steal bases? We've hardly been stealing bases all year and now we try to do that?

 

[all4ripken]

Well they're in, but Toronto won as well so the WC game will be in TOR. Any idea on the pitching matchups for Tuesday? Won't be Happ as he pitched this weekend I believe, Liriano maybe? Especially since we have struggled against lefties all year.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Well they're in, but Toronto won as well so the WC game will be in TOR. Any idea on the pitching matchups for Tuesday? Won't be Happ as he pitched this weekend I believe, Liriano maybe? Especially since we have struggled against lefties all year.

It sounds like it'll be either Happ or Liriano for them and either Tillman or Ubaldo for us.

 

[mikeytheman247]

It sounds like it'll be either Happ or Liriano for them and either Tillman or Ubaldo for us.

I would think Tillman based on reliability. Jimenez needs to be ready to come in at any time. I think the Jays will pitch Liriano.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

I would think Tillman based on reliability. Jimenez needs to be ready to come in at any time. I think the Jays will pitch Liriano.

Sounds like Stroman might be considered for the Jays as well.

 

[mikeytheman247]

ORIOLES LINEUP
Adam Jones, CF
Hyun Soo Kim, LF
Manny Machado, 3B
Mark Trumbo, DH
Matt Wieters, C
Chris Davis, 1B
Jonathan Schoop, 2B
Michael Bourn, RF
J.J. Hardy, SS

Chris Tillman, p

BLUE JAYS LINEUP
Devon Travis, 2B
Josh Donaldson, 3B
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B
Jose Bautista, RF
Russell Martin, C
Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Michael Saunders, DH
Kevin Pillar, CF
Ezequiel Carrera, LF

Marcus Stroman, p

 

[all4ripken]

Well this is pathetic so far...

 

[Bulletz]

Looks like the bats aren't gonna show up tonight.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Looks like the bats aren't gonna show up tonight.

...for both teams? If that's the case, Trumbo's homer might be enough.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

3 straight hits? Hook. Now.

EDIT: Thanks, Buck...

 

[mikeytheman247]

3 straight hits? Hook. Now.

EDIT: Thanks, Buck...

Yea after that double to Pillar I would have definitely yanked him. In a do or die game with our bullpen. Atleast Givens got out of it. The offense needs to start getting on base.