2015 Offseason moves

[tzill]

I know we're in the middle of a playoff push, and I think we'll stay in it, but I thought I'd look forward to next year to see what we might do over the offseason:

Under contract for 2016:
SP: Cain (20.8); Peavy (15); Bum (10); Heston (0.5)
RP: Romo(9); Casilla (6.5); Lopez (5); Strick (0.5), Osich(0.5)
C: Posey(20.8); Susac(0.5)
IF: Panik(0.6); Duffy(0.6); Adrianza(0.5); Tomlinson(0.5)
OF: Pence(18.5); Pagan(11.3); Aoki(5.5); Blanco(3.9)

Best guess for arb guys:
RP: Petit(2.5); Kontos(1.0)
IF: Belt(5.4), Crawford(4.7)
OF: Maxwell(1.2)

Best guess for FA:
SP: Leake(15)

TOTAL ML PAYROLL: 160.3.
Add in the rest of the 40 man Sanchez(1.0), Broadway (0.5), and the rest should be on minor league contracts, give or take a player or two.

So, that would mean that the following are gone: Lincecum, Hudson, Affeldt, Vogelsong. Arias and Machi are back in the minors, so I guess they get vet min salaries.

Potential upgrade positions are OF and long relief. Specifically, we could add a starting CF and move Pagan to the bench, where he'd be better served as his body will not hold up as a starter.

The FA get would obviously be Jason Heyward, but Dexter Fowler and Denard Span will be upgrades as well. Austin Jackson is a possibility I suppose.

We would have budget room to get a new CF.

 

[calsnowskier]

2016 Rosterbation | SportsHoopla Sports Forums

 

[calsnowskier]

A few notes...

1) Machi is in Boston now, so he does not figure in any calculations for 2016 (unless you believe he will come back via free agency)

2) Arias is off the 40. If you factor him into 2016, why not Frandsen or Cabrera?

3) Is Max worth 1.2M? He is a #5 OF who does not seem to be anything super-special. I think we can match his production with a kid or a dumpster-dive at 1/2 the price.

4) I agree that a CF is a potential target in the off-season. I have not looked at the FA class yet, so I am not sure who should be targeted, but I think one of the Panic/Duffy/Tomlinson can be used as a trade piece to get a good one if that is the route they want to go.

5) looking at the numbers, it may, unfortunately, be time to move on from Petit. I would rather grab Price/Cueto/etc and move Peavy or Cain to the bully than dedicate the roster spot to a luxury like Petit. It looks like there is cap-space to do something like this, assuming a 180-190 level.

 

[LHG]

A few notes...

1) Machi is in Boston now, so he does not figure in any calculations for 2016 (unless you believe he will come back via free agency)

2) Arias is off the 40. If you factor him into 2016, why not Frandsen or Cabrera?

3) Is Max worth 1.2M? He is a #5 OF who does not seem to be anything super-special. I think we can match his production with a kid or a dumpster-dive at 1/2 the price.

4) I agree that a CF is a potential target in the off-season. I have not looked at the FA class yet, so I am not sure who should be targeted, but I think one of the Panic/Duffy/Tomlinson can be used as a trade piece to get a good one if that is the route they want to go.

5) looking at the numbers, it may, unfortunately, be time to move on from Petit. I would rather grab Price/Cueto/etc and move Peavy or Cain to the bully than dedicate the roster spot to a luxury like Petit. It looks like there is cap-space to do something like this, assuming a 180-190 level.

This is strange, talking about off season moves in the middle of a pennant race, but I'll bit.

I think Arias walks as a free agent. He'll look for a shot and will probably get a invitation to spring training with someone. Granted, that may be the Giants, but I'm not counting on it.

I also think Maxwell is a good candidate for a non-tender, as is Petit. However, that means the Giants will need to find long relief help. I would guess its going to be someone invited to spring training. Why spend money on that role?

The Giants has the room to grab a Cueto/Price, etc and not move anyone from the rotation. Then you'd have a rotation of Bumgarner, free agent, Heston, Peavy, Cain.

I do think the area the Giants should focus on is a starter, a center fielder and a relief pitcher. Pagan's days as a starter should be over. But that creates a quandary. Do you make him the 4th guy and bump Blanco to 5th? Do you let Aoki walk and start Blanco, gambling that he will put up similar numbers to 2015 and not revert to 2014 or before? Trade for an outfielder and try to put either Blanco or Pagan in that trade?

 

[calsnowskier]

I think you have to keep Aoki, unless he really shits the bed from here on out. 5.5 for a near-AS OF is a bargain. Heck, if he falters, that is pocket change.

I think we can move forward with Blanco/Pagan as the 4/5. Pagans defensive liability, I think, makes him more of the 5 moving forward. Blanco has been a great Giant, and this year has really stepped up, learning a lot from Aoki on how to approach the game.

I think Leake is a relative no-brainier resign. His style (sinker baller) is perfect for our infielders, and really follows "The Giants Way". Adding him the mix gives us 3 solid starters with 2 question marks. If we really want to be serious next year, though, I think another top-of-the-rotation guy is needed. I am not sure if Cueto or Price is that guy, but those tires should certainly be kicked. Peavey is gone after '16 and Cain is up after '17.

 

[tzill]

This is strange, talking about off season moves in the middle of a pennant race, but I'll bit.

I think Arias walks as a free agent. He'll look for a shot and will probably get a invitation to spring training with someone. Granted, that may be the Giants, but I'm not counting on it.

I also think Maxwell is a good candidate for a non-tender, as is Petit. However, that means the Giants will need to find long relief help. I would guess its going to be someone invited to spring training. Why spend money on that role?

The Giants has the room to grab a Cueto/Price, etc and not move anyone from the rotation. Then you'd have a rotation of Bumgarner, free agent, Heston, Peavy, Cain.

I do think the area the Giants should focus on is a starter, a center fielder and a relief pitcher. Pagan's days as a starter should be over. But that creates a quandary. Do you make him the 4th guy and bump Blanco to 5th? Do you let Aoki walk and start Blanco, gambling that he will put up similar numbers to 2015 and not revert to 2014 or before? Trade for an outfielder and try to put either Blanco or Pagan in that trade?

I think Aoki's option vests if he has 550 PAs, which he is on pace to get, so I'm assuming he's back at $5.5. Pagan and Blanco would be reserves. The SP they will focus on will be Leake, unless he implodes down the stretch. They've wanted him for years, as they did Pence, so I'd be pretty shocked if there isn't a lot of mutal interest to re-sign. I don't think we'll sign a RP as our farm is pretty deep with cheap and good options. Assuming Leake is the SP we get and Pagan goes to the bench, we save 1.2 from Max's projected salary. Who do you target for CF?

 

[LHG]

I think you have to keep Aoki, unless he really shits the bed from here on out. 5.5 for a near-AS OF is a bargain. Heck, if he falters, that is pocket change.

I think we can move forward with Blanco/Pagan as the 4/5. Pagans defensive liability, I think, makes him more of the 5 moving forward. Blanco has been a great Giant, and this year has really stepped up, learning a lot from Aoki on how to approach the game.

I think Leake is a relative no-brainier resign. His style (sinker baller) is perfect for our infielders, and really follows "The Giants Way". Adding him the mix gives us 3 solid starters with 2 question marks. If we really want to be serious next year, though, I think another top-of-the-rotation guy is needed. I am not sure if Cueto or Price is that guy, but those tires should certainly be kicked. Peavey is gone after '16 and Cain is up after '17.

I had a feeling I was forgetting someone on the starting rotation. I don't see the Giants moving either Peavy or Cain to the bullpen. Peavy has been solid so far and Cain they've invested too much money into to consider the bullpen, at least for 2016. With that in mind, I think that if the Giants do re-sign Leake that they will be less likely to sign another free agent starting pitcher. I imagine the front office's strategy will be to try to re-sign Leake quickly to gauge whether they need to be in the mix for some other names or sit it out.

Still boggles the mind that 5.5 million can be considered pocket change but that's major sports. Wish I could use that in asking for a raise. "Hey boss, Nori Aoki makes $5.5 million, and that is pocket change, what do you think paying me $100,000 a year?"

 

[LHG]

I think Aoki's option vests if he has 550 PAs, which he is on pace to get, so I'm assuming he's back at $5.5. Pagan and Blanco would be reserves. The SP they will focus on will be Leake, unless he implodes down the stretch. They've wanted him for years, as they did Pence, so I'd be pretty shocked if there isn't a lot of mutal interest to re-sign. I don't think we'll sign a RP as our farm is pretty deep with cheap and good options. Assuming Leake is the SP we get and Pagan goes to the bench, we save 1.2 from Max's projected salary. Who do you target for CF?

I don't think Aoki is going to get close to 550 plate appearances. I would guess he will be about 50 plate appearances or so short.

We do have a few good relief pitchers to pick from in the minor leagues but the bullpen could potentially be completely reshuffled for 2016, especially if Casilla walks. I could see as many as 4 spots open in the bullpen (that's assuming they let Affeldt, Casilla and Vogelsong go, non-tender Petit and decide to keep the 13 man staff for 2016). I doubt the Giants would fill all 4 spots from within.

Like cal, I'm not sure who are available this off season. Looking at the three names you mentioned, I'm not sure that signing someone from the market would be any better than just handing center field to Blanco. His numbers are comparable to Span this year (when Span has been playing) and Span was having one of his best years this year. Hayward is intriguing because he is 25 and has shown flashes of greatness, but that potential is going to make him pretty expensive, in my opinion. Fowler's numbers haven't looked that good now that he's away from Houston and Colorado. I don't think that is a fluke. Unless there is someone more worthwhile on the market, I think I'll change my opinion about the Giants picking up an outfielder.

 

[tzill]

I don't think Aoki is going to get close to 550 plate appearances. I would guess he will be about 50 plate appearances or so short.

We do have a few good relief pitchers to pick from in the minor leagues but the bullpen could potentially be completely reshuffled for 2016, especially if Casilla walks. I could see as many as 4 spots open in the bullpen (that's assuming they let Affeldt, Casilla and Vogelsong go, non-tender Petit and decide to keep the 13 man staff for 2016). I doubt the Giants would fill all 4 spots from within.

Like cal, I'm not sure who are available this off season. Looking at the three names you mentioned, I'm not sure that signing someone from the market would be any better than just handing center field to Blanco. His numbers are comparable to Span this year (when Span has been playing) and Span was having one of his best years this year. Hayward is intriguing because he is 25 and has shown flashes of greatness, but that potential is going to make him pretty expensive, in my opinion. Fowler's numbers haven't looked that good now that he's away from Houston and Colorado. I don't think that is a fluke. Unless there is someone more worthwhile on the market, I think I'll change my opinion about the Giants picking up an outfielder.

Aoki is at 324 PA, with 55 games to play. If he plays in 50 of them with 5 PA/game that gives him 574. I think that there is little chance he WON'T vest his option.

Likewise, Casilla's option vests with 55 games finished. He's at 37 with 55 to play. Odds are excellent that he gets there. I'm assuming both players vest, which is the most likely outcome. Also, we won't keep a 13 man staff for next year, so that leaves four spots open after Romo/Casilla/Lopez. You've got to figure Strick and Kontos are locks, and Osich is a great bet too. So, that leaves one spot -- LR. Petit may be gone, but then they'd give serious consideration to Tron. Either way, they are pretty unlikely to be looking at a FA. I think they fill the bullpen COMPLETELY from within. And also hope guys like Petit slip through waivers.

IN 2016, the FA CFs are going to be: Fowler, Span, Heyward, Jackson, Stubbs, Davis, Venable, Young, Kelly, Johnson, Gutierrez, Gwynn, and Bernadina. Kelly and Johnson probably retire.

Heyward is the elite, but the Turdinals are going to push hard to re-sign him. Fowler and Span are the next tier down. Here's a OPS+ and WAR comparison (3 year/this year) comparison for Blanco and the others:

Blanco: 110/126 1.9/0.9
Heyward: 111/113 5.2/3.7
Fowler: 106/96 2.2/0.7
Span: 110/120 3.7/0.9

Heyward would be the get; Span would be an upgrade. I'd pass on Fowler.

 

[calsnowskier]

Aoki's vest just makes the option mutual. It does not lock it in. Basically, the vesting gives him an out.

After the season, Petit would not need to clear waivers. He would would be tendered a contract or non-tendered. If he is non-tendered, he is a FA. If he wanted, he could come back with a ST invite, but he could go to any other team that offered him something as well. The Giants would have no special legal rights to him. I suspect he would have enough value that the Giants would explore trading him before non-tendering him. This is what the Marlins did with sHits.

 

[tzill]

(deleted)

 

[LHG]

Aoki is at 324 PA, with 55 games to play. If he plays in 50 of them with 5 PA/game that gives him 574. I think that there is little chance he WON'T vest his option.

Likewise, Casilla's option vests with 55 games finished. He's at 37 with 55 to play. Odds are excellent that he gets there. I'm assuming both players vest, which is the most likely outcome. Also, we won't keep a 13 man staff for next year, so that leaves four spots open after Romo/Casilla/Lopez. You've got to figure Strick and Kontos are locks, and Osich is a great bet too. So, that leaves one spot -- LR. Petit may be gone, but then they'd give serious consideration to Tron. Either way, they are pretty unlikely to be looking at a FA. I think they fill the bullpen COMPLETELY from within. And also hope guys like Petit slip through waivers.

IN 2016, the FA CFs are going to be: Fowler, Span, Heyward, Jackson, Stubbs, Davis, Venable, Young, Kelly, Johnson, Gutierrez, Gwynn, and Bernadina. Kelly and Johnson probably retire.

Heyward is the elite, but the Turdinals are going to push hard to re-sign him. Fowler and Span are the next tier down. Here's a OPS+ and WAR comparison (3 year/this year) comparison for Blanco and the others:

Blanco: 110/126 1.9/0.9
Heyward: 111/113 5.2/3.7
Fowler: 106/96 2.2/0.7
Span: 110/120 3.7/0.9

Heyward would be the get; Span would be an upgrade. I'd pass on Fowler.

That's what I love about this board, you all fill in the gaps on my knowledge. Of course, I could be not lazy and look up this information . . .
My bad on Aoki. I just eyeballed his current plate appearances and guessed. Was completely unaware of Casilla's option. That's one less opening in the bullpen.

I would consider both Strick and Kontos as locks, no doubt in my mind. Barring a late season complete meltdown by either one of them, I don't see how they could not be. Osich, if he can continue what he was doing when he comes back up in September, has to get a good shot at making the bullpen in 2016 as well. If the Giants go back to a 12 man in 2016, then I don't really think they'd tap the free agent market for a relief pitcher unless both Petit and Vogelsong are not invited back.

Interesting that Blanco has a better OPS+ then Heyward but Heyward's WAR is so much higher. Is that due to playing time, defense or both? Don't see how Span would be an upgrade. If Blanco got the same amount of playing as Span, what would his 3 year WAR look like? Might be a little closer than you think.

 

[tzill]

That's what I love about this board, you all fill in the gaps on my knowledge. Of course, I could be not lazy and look up this information . . .
My bad on Aoki. I just eyeballed his current plate appearances and guessed. Was completely unaware of Casilla's option. That's one less opening in the bullpen.

I would consider both Strick and Kontos as locks, no doubt in my mind. Barring a late season complete meltdown by either one of them, I don't see how they could not be. Osich, if he can continue what he was doing when he comes back up in September, has to get a good shot at making the bullpen in 2016 as well. If the Giants go back to a 12 man in 2016, then I don't really think they'd tap the free agent market for a relief pitcher unless both Petit and Vogelsong are not invited back.

Interesting that Blanco has a better OPS+ then Heyward but Heyward's WAR is so much higher. Is that due to playing time, defense or both? Don't see how Span would be an upgrade. If Blanco got the same amount of playing as Span, what would his 3 year WAR look like? Might be a little closer than you think.

WAR is a counting stat, so the more you play, the more WAR you accumulate (similar to hits and RBI in that respect). OPS+ is a rate stat, so it isn't dependent on how much you play (similar to AVG or ERA). Heyward's WAR is higher due to both playing time and elite D. I think Span would be a slight upgrade, but not enough of one to commit a lot of money to. He's more durable than Blanco, who by my eye seems to deteriorate the more he's played.

 

[SFGRTB]

WAR is a counting stat, so the more you play, the more WAR you accumulate (similar to hits and RBI in that respect). OPS+ is a rate stat, so it isn't dependent on how much you play (similar to AVG or ERA). Heyward's WAR is higher due to both playing time and elite D. I think Span would be a slight upgrade, but not enough of one to commit a lot of money to. He's more durable than Blanco, who by my eye seems to deteriorate the more he's played.

Span has spent time on the DL two different times this season. Has Blanco ever gone to the DL?

 

[tzill]

Span has spent time on the DL two different times this season. Has Blanco ever gone to the DL?

Fair point; I guess what I meant is that Span can play a lot of games and not lose effectiveness, whereas Blanco seems to have a point of diminishing retruns around 70 or so games.

 

[filosofy29]

I know we're in the middle of a playoff push, and I think we'll stay in it, but I thought I'd look forward to next year to see what we might do over the offseason:

Under contract for 2016:
SP: Cain (20.8); Peavy (15); Bum (10); Heston (0.5)
RP: Romo(9); Casilla (6.5); Lopez (5); Strick (0.5), Osich(0.5)
C: Posey(20.8); Susac(0.5)
IF: Panik(0.6); Duffy(0.6); Adrianza(0.5); Tomlinson(0.5)
OF: Pence(18.5); Pagan(11.3); Aoki(5.5); Blanco(3.9)

Best guess for arb guys:
RP: Petit(2.5); Kontos(1.0)
IF: Belt(5.4), Crawford(4.7)
OF: Maxwell(1.2)

Best guess for FA:
SP: Leake(15)

TOTAL ML PAYROLL: 160.3.
Add in the rest of the 40 man Sanchez(1.0), Broadway (0.5), and the rest should be on minor league contracts, give or take a player or two.

So, that would mean that the following are gone: Lincecum, Hudson, Affeldt, Vogelsong. Arias and Machi are back in the minors, so I guess they get vet min salaries.

Potential upgrade positions are OF and long relief. Specifically, we could add a starting CF and move Pagan to the bench, where he'd be better served as his body will not hold up as a starter.

The FA get would obviously be Jason Heyward, but Dexter Fowler and Denard Span will be upgrades as well. Austin Jackson is a possibility I suppose.

We would have budget room to get a new CF.

I know he's had a rough year (perhaps that would help with cost), but I've always liked Dexter Fowler's game. I wish he stole more bases though.....

Fowler, Leake and a good bullpen arm or two would be a pretty good offseason IMHO.

 

[SFGRTB]

Fair point; I guess what I meant is that Span can play a lot of games and not lose effectiveness, whereas Blanco seems to have a point of diminishing retruns around 70 or so games.

Gotcha. I think that is fair to be concerned about, given past years. This year he seems to have figured it out, but time will tell.

 

[LHG]

Fair point; I guess what I meant is that Span can play a lot of games and not lose effectiveness, whereas Blanco seems to have a point of diminishing retruns around 70 or so games.

Doesn't look like that to me. Looking at both Blanco and Span, their production from month to month the past three years are both fairly sporadic. Blanco has his ebbs and flows as much as Span but not necessarily more.

 

[LHG]

For example, on the Blanco versus Span, look at OPS by month in 2013 and 2014 (at bats in parenthesis):
Blanco 2013 - April (68) .636, May (74) .695, June (90) .799, July (77) .477, August (84) .630, Sept. (69) .937
Span 2013 - April (98) .665, May (109) .735, June (98) .616, July (97) .751, August (109) .731, Sept. (99) .737
Blanco 2014 - April (31) .444, May (44) .744, June (81) .607, July (84) .686, August (61) .872, Sept. (91) .784
Span 2014 - April (82) .594, May (115) .748, June (108) .724, July (95) .870, August (122) .789, Sept. (84) .882

 

[calsnowskier]

For example, on the Blanco versus Span, look at OPS by month in 2013 and 2014 (at bats in parenthesis):
Blanco 2013 - April (68) .636, May (74) .695, June (90) .799, July (77) .477, August (84) .630, Sept. (69) .937
Span 2013 - April (98) .665, May (109) .735, June (98) .616, July (97) .751, August (109) .731, Sept. (99) .737
Blanco 2014 - April (31) .444, May (44) .744, June (81) .607, July (84) .686, August (61) .872, Sept. (91) .784
Span 2014 - April (82) .594, May (115) .748, June (108) .724, July (95) .870, August (122) .789, Sept. (84) .882

The problem with using straight OPS, though is taking park factors into effect. Normally that is not a HUGE issue, but if one of the players happens to play in an extreme park, that can really skew the numbers. Blanco plays in an extreme pitchers park. OPS+ is not perfect, but I like it better since it normalizes for the park, then compares to the rest of the league.