2015 Draft Thread

[Darkstone42]

The draft is in four days, so we might as well have a thread for it.

It seems like if Mike Nikorak falls to the Pirates, he'll be the guy they go for. The Giants may take him before them, though. Nikorak is a prep pitcher who's pretty big and can already hit 97, but mostly sits 91-94 with his fastball. Kiley McDaniel rates the pitch 55/65, his curve 50/60, and his changeup 45/50+. His command got a 40/50 rating. His Future Value (FV) is a 45 and his risk is 4/5.

Seems like a good risk to take, though, and he fits the mold of the pitchers the Pirates like and have had some success in developing.

Kolby Allard is another guy the Pirates seem to be high on, and he's dropped down the draft board due to a back injury. He's a prep lefty, and McDaniel rates him with a 45+ FV. Also high risk at a 4, a little riskier than Nikorak with a slightly worse fastball, but probably more upside. His fastball sits 90-93 and can also touch 97, rated 50/55+. His secondary stuff is already solid, a 55/60 curveball and a 45/50+ changeup, as well as a 40/50+ command rating.

I'd definitely be fine with that pick, too. We only have a few lefties in our system with much of a shot (Tarpley, Brault, and Dickson), so it would be a nice diversification. There's a lot of upside for the stuff, too.

Among position players, it seems like the best who might fall to the Bucs is Cornelius Randolph, a prep 3B with a strong arm (55/55) and some raw power (55/55). Daz Cameron was also briefly linked to the Bucs, a prep OF and son of former Major Leaguer Mike Cameron, but it seems unlikely he would fall that far. He doesn't profile quite as well as a hitter as Randolph, but he's got some speed and is a good defender, and his bat, by and large, should be fine.

I'm kind of hoping James Karpielian will fall to the Bucs at 32, but I doubt it. High floor college arm out of UCLA, kind of a safe pick, seems like the type who could move quickly. Not the big high upside pick, but a guy with a really good shot of being a contributor in the Majors. Cody Ponce is another interesting arm who might be on the board at 32, another hard-throwing prep righty.

If Randolph doesn't fall to the Bucs, Ke'Bryan Hayes is a 3B option which might be around at 32, as well, and would be a solid pick as well. His bat is similar to Randolph's with slightly less power, but he has a cannon for an arm (65 rating) and profiles better defensively and athletically than Randolph. But the bat will take more work, especially if they want to get power out of it.

It'll be interesting to see who they go with, though, and I look forward to the draft as always, especially with a front office who look like they have a good idea of what they're doing right now.

 

[thecrow124]

I have been trying to follow the coverage as best as I can. It is hard to get a clear read on 1) Who might be there and 2) What the Pirates are really looking for. Seems like there is a lot of talk connecting the Pirates to prep pitching, but it is not a foregone conclusion that that is what they would target.
There really isn't that one standout talent, and the draft doesn't really go very deep on having above average talent.
There are certain players that should be no Grainer's that if they fall to 19, should absolutely be the pick, but it is hard to find a scenario where any of them make it that far.
Should be an interesting draft to judge how good of a scouting team we have in place.

 

[Burgh Sports Rule]

Darkstone, do you think the Pirates would take Brady Aiken, if he fell to them at pick #19 in Rd. 1?

Is that something that you could see them doing?

Burgh

 

[Darkstone42]

Darkstone, do you think the Pirates would take Brady Aiken, if he fell to them at pick #19 in Rd. 1?

Is that something that you could see them doing?

Burgh

Aiken's the one who went first overall last year, right?

I don't think there's any way he signs for slot that low, or anything close enough to slot that the Pirates wouldn't concede a pick in the next round. With his injury, and the reduced value of the comp pick if we can't sign him (over the Appel situation), I just can't see the Pirates seeing him as worth the risk. Since Aiken's got options, he'll feel no pressure to sign, and he just turned down $5 million last year, if he's the player I'm thinking of, so the Pirates (who slot around $2 million) will likely have no chance to sign him under the current rules and will pass as a result.

There's also a lot of speculation the Pirates will avoid pitchers coming off injuries with the 19th pick (which would also rule out Allard, incidentally), but that I'm less convinced of.

 

[Darkstone42]

I actually suspect the Pirates will take Allard over Nikorak if both are available when they pick, by the way. They have similar stuff, but Allard's a lefty, which gives him that slight edge in value, and has better polished offspeed stuff. Of course, Nikorak is bigger, and that's a direction the Pirates like to go in prep pitchers, so I guess we'll see. He's also got less injury history and less wear on his arm than Allard, which are pluses to Nikorak, but with the Bucs actively targeting left-handed pitching in the Snider trade (both of whom look good, by the way), I suspect they might take a shot at a hard-throwing lefty with upside with either the 19th or 32nd pick.

 

[steelparrot]

The pirates didnt follow the mock drafts on the net last year, so maybe they have their eye on someone not in most peoples top 30.

This draft is loaded with HS pitchers projected to go off the board around our picks, so maybe we double down the HS arms.

 

[Darkstone42]

Kevin Newman was the first round pick, a SS from Arizona.

I love it. His hands are great, his contact skill is great, his eye is very good, and he's an exceptional baserunner despite average speed. He's got a decent chance to stick at short as well. I didn't expect this pick, but he might have been the best pure hitter left in the draft.

 

[thecrow124]

ke'Bryan Hayes is the second pick. High school 3B, son of 14 year vet Charlie Hayes. I like the pick in the sense of, he has a ton of talent and has bloodlines. The only thing I don't like about it is that Dad Cameron is still on the board and we didn't take him. However, I do not believe we have enough draft slot money to sign him, so probably better that we didn't draft him. In the end, Cameron will probably be an 11th round pick for someone.

 

[Darkstone42]

Love the pick of Ke'Bryan Hayes. Outstanding glove at third, great arm, some power projection to go with size and an advanced approach and solid contact tool. He'll take some time to develop, but he's got both a high floor and a decent ceiling.

 

[Darkstone42]

ke'Bryan Hayes is the second pick. High school 3B, son of 14 year vet Charlie Hayes. I like the pick in the sense of, he has a ton of talent and has bloodlines. The only thing I don't like about it is that Dad Cameron is still on the board and we didn't take him. However, I do not believe we have enough draft slot money to sign him, so probably better that we didn't draft him. In the end, Cameron will probably be an 11th round pick for someone.

Yeah, Cameron wants about $5 million, and we can't afford that without losing picks in the future. And there's no guarantee he'd sign anyway.

Since Newman and Hayes are both probably pretty signable, we might be able to take one of the good arms falling for signability reasons in the second round and get three first or fringe first round talents out of our first and second round picks.

But I think Newman will move quickly, and will be better than a lot of folks think. He reminds me a lot of Johnny Field, also from Arizona, who's hitting really well in Tampa Bay's system.

 

[Darkstone42]

Kramer, a SS from UCLA, could complete the all-Seinfeld middle infield in some possible future.

Another kid with a decent glove (recovering from a torn labrum, which may form him to move off short, though), who has good bat speed and contact skills. Athletic and a solid runner, he fits the recent profile of early-round bats the Bucs have been targeting.

I suspect this strategy has something to do with the draft field this year. Deep with early-round infield talent and high risk power prep arms. I suspect tomorrow we'll see some of the latter, especially with the top three picks being reasonably signable, which could give the Bucs some room to take some risks in later rounds.

I do like the hit tool and the gloves for all three players the Pirates took. We'll see how the gap power comes along, but guys with decent wheels who can shoot the gaps seem like good sorts of players for PNC Park, where home run power is so suppressed anyway.

 

[element1286]

If you include sandwich rounds picks, the Pirates last first 6 first round picks are OF, OF, C, SS, 3B.

I think it's a good strategy considering that pitching is not in short supply in the minors or majors right now.

 

[Darkstone42]

If you include sandwich rounds picks, the Pirates last first 6 first round picks are OF, OF, C, SS, 3B.

I think it's a good strategy considering that pitching is not in short supply in the minors or majors right now.

Yeah, I know the Pirates will say they went best player available, but I have to think the lack of infield depth and the lack of room in many of the minor league rotations had to play into these decisions at least a little bit. They've hoarded so many pitchers, catchers, and outfielders that they're having trouble getting them all time in the field or big chunks of innings. On the other hand, they're really pushing non-infielders to become infielders (like JaCoby Jones, for example).

I do expect them, though, to take at least a couple pitchers today, as well as at least one catcher and one outfielder (I kind of expect them to go for Skye Bolt in the third round if he drops to them, since he's really similar to JaCoby Jones in terms of being a very raw college player, good athlete with a high ceiling, who would have been a first-round pick had he put his tools together in college, and Jones was taken in the third round.)

 

[Darkstone42]

On Newman, Chris Mitchell talking about his KATOH projection:

Kevin Newman is another Pac-12 player who put up excellent numbers in college, and is therefore adored by KATOH. Newman’s biggest long suit is his ability to put the ball in play. He struck in a mere 5% of his plate appearances at Arizona last year, which enabled him to flirt with a .400 batting average. Throw in that he plays shortstop and steals bases, and there’s an awful lot to like here. Newman’s projected 5.6 WAR through age-28 ranked fourth among draft-eligible college bats.

 

[Darkstone42]

Casey Hughston is the third round pick. Plus power to all fields, good speed, and roughly average tools otherwise, though some strikeout issues at times. He improved his plate discipline this year, though, so that's something he's shown he can work on.

Could play CF, but probably better suited for a corner, he's definitely got some upside, but the strikeouts give him a lot of flame-out potential, too, and, like most of the guys the Pirates take, he's very athletic.

 

[Darkstone42]

4th round pick Jacob Taylor, sits 93 with his fastball late in games, can tough 97, but a bit of a project. Big upside with that fastball and a strong build, only 19 now, turns 20 in July. This is the power arm pick the Pirates are known for, though, taking a young guy with a hard fastball and not much secondary stuff and developing the command and a couple other offerings. He started his college career as an outfielder, but I don't know about his high school history, but there might not be too much wear on his arm.

He was ranked higher than this pick, though, by most to all outlets, so this might be the sort of pick the Pirates were saving up for with earlier, higher-floor picks.

 

[Darkstone42]

Depending on if he falls there, I kind of expect the Pirates to take one of Hooper or Hellinger soon.

Hooper's got major signability issues, but Hellinger is 6'4" 165 pounds and left-handed. Could be a projectability pick, with that kind of wiry frame a chance to add velocity as he fills out, and with the bonus of being left-handed.

 

[steelparrot]

What jumps out at me from the top 3 picks is that they hit to all fields.

I think unshiftable players might become the new hidden talent, maybe we are trying to get on that wagon first.

 

[Darkstone42]

What jumps out at me from the top 3 picks is that they hit to all fields.

I think unshiftable players might become the new hidden talent, maybe we are trying to get on that wagon first.

That is a good point. With the advent of the shift, the pull power guys are going to lose their value, maybe not all of it, but certainly some. Spray hitters could really end up reaping the benefits.

 

[Darkstone42]

Brandon Waddell is the Pirates' 5th round pick. Tall, lean lefty, 21 years old, out of UVA. Three average pitches, and for his first two years, excellent command. This year, his command faltered, but he was dealing with blister issues, so we'll see if that cleans itself up quickly. Sits high 80s with the fastball, can touch 92, but he's tall and thin, so he could add a couple ticks.

If the command returns, though, he'll be a useful pitcher, I think. He's not going to be an ace or anything, but he could fill in the back of the rotation or somewhere in the bullpen. More of a high floor guy, I think, than a high ceiling guy.