Red Sox ZiPS projections for 2017

Pitchers
The top rotation of 2016 (in this case, belonging to the Mets) produced just over 18 wins as a group. The top rotation of 2015 (the Cubs) crossed just over the 19-win threshold. In 2014, it was the Nationals — also with about 18 wins. From this collection of three data points, one concludes that the league’s top rotation generally accumulates about 18-19 WAR. By comparison, one notes that the top-five Boston starters in 2017 are projected to record 20 wins as a group. Unsurprisingly, the addition of Chris Sale (199.2 IP, 6.2 zWAR) is largely responsible for that. Even the club’s “worst” starter, though — Eduardo Rodriguez (146.2, 2.2) — still profiles as slightly above average.

As for the bullpen, the departure of Koji Uehara represents a decided net-loss for the club. Fortunately, the addition of Tyler Thornburg (60.0 IP, 0.9 zWAR) appears likely to compensate for Uehara’s absence. The right-hander is projected to record the club’s third-best park-adjusted era (71 ERA-) behind Sale (63 ERA-) and closer Craig Kimbrel (67 ERA-).

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