Trade decision

This is a keeper league (7 players) with 5 year contracts. I would get Arenado (3 year contract), Hosmer (4 year contract) and 8th pick in first round (98 players kept). I give up Harper (5 year contract) and Carlos Gomez (2 year contract).
Opinions?

no money or round values??



This one is interesting, normally i would say no, since Harper is the best player and best contract in this trade... But 3B is thin after the elites... and 1B is surprisingly thin too(assuming normal eligibilities)...

are you not giving up a pick to balance the trade out??

That 8th pick is huge for my decision. Who are you targeting?

As milk said, Harper AND the best contract is tough to pass up.

Tough one Fuzz.

I think the player values invloved in the trade are actually pretty close. Harper is great, but I think Arenado is pretty close in terms of value. Still though, the two years matter. I would rather have Hosmer than Gomez, and the fact that you can have him for 4 years brings more value to your side.

What type of player can you get at pick 8? If a few contracts expired last season, that could end up being a pretty good player. If you can grab a top 50 player in that spot, I think the overall value swings in your favor. If it is more likely to be a top 100 type of value, the. It depends on what you want more.

This deal will help you in the short term, but you will feel the burn a little in year 4 and a lot in year 5. What do your other keeper contracts look like? if your other studs are coming off the books around the same time as Arenado, I would be more inclined to do this.

Yellow Fuzzies said:

This is a keeper league (7 players) with 5 year contracts. I would get Arenado (3 year contract), Hosmer (4 year contract) and 8th pick in first round (98 players kept). I give up Harper (5 year contract) and Carlos Gomez (2 year contract).
Opinions?

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To me, this really comes down to how you evaluate Harper. I was a naysayer and last year he finally proved me wrong. Given his still young age, the question now to ask yourself was last year his career year, or is it just the beginning of his talent finally coming through? (I tend to think more of the latter) ....which is why I would be hesitant on your trade offer. If last year was the beginning of his peak years, you have 5 years of continued development/production in his best 5 years of productivity which are at MVP level.

As others have mentioned, the key could be how good of a second first round pick (assuming you have your own as well) can you get? What will be the level of talent available 100 guys deep in a 14 team league? If there are several top 100 guys coming off contracts that you can snag two of instead of one that makes a big difference in your decision. Also what is your current roster and keepers? If you already have someone as capable or better at first I would be even more hesitant. Likely a better first base option (while week this year) will present itself within 4 years so I don't think Hosmer will be on your team for the next 4 years.

So is 3 years of Arenado better than 5 years of Harper (You would be selling high if you think last year was a career year)??? I don't think so....although I rarely trade players to begin with...LOL

MilkSpiller22 said:

are you not giving up a pick to balance the trade out??

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Harper is the pick- I have the #1 draft pick and it will be Harper. I throw in a nonkeeper in the deal.

tlance said:

Tough one Fuzz.

I think the player values invloved in the trade are actually pretty close. Harper is great, but I think Arenado is pretty close in terms of value. Still though, the two years matter. I would rather have Hosmer than Gomez, and the fact that you can have him for 4 years brings more value to your side.

What type of player can you get at pick 8? If a few contracts expired last season, that could end up being a pretty good player. If you can grab a top 50 player in that spot, I think the overall value swings in your favor. If it is more likely to be a top 100 type of value, the. It depends on what you want more.

This deal will help you in the short term, but you will feel the burn a little in year 4 and a lot in year 5. What do your other keeper contracts look like? if your other studs are coming off the books around the same time as Arenado, I would be more inclined to do this.

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I would have the 8th pick and the 15th pick (no snake first 4 rounds). But not many expiring contracts so I am probably looking at top 100 talent not top 50 at these two spots.

thanks for all the input. We agreed to a trade- I get Arenado, Hosmer and Dickerson- He gets Carlos Gomez, Matt Holiday and Delino Deshields and we swap 1st round picks he gets #1, I get #8.
I had some holes in my lineup so this helped me a lot. He was pretty stacked so Harper and Gomez fit well for him.

Yellow Fuzzies said:

thanks for all the input. We agreed to a trade- I get Arenado, Hosmer and Dickerson- He gets Carlos Gomez, Matt Holiday and Delino Deshields and we swap 1st round picks he gets #1, I get #8.
I had some holes in my lineup so this helped me a lot. He was pretty stacked so Harper and Gomez fit well for him.

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Not sure I like that Fuzz.

Dickerson, Deshields and Holiday are irelevant if you are only keeping 7. None of those guys are better than top 100 talent. Dickerson being in TB now puts him right on the keeper fringe. If you are giving up the earlier pick, that is bad for you.

tlance said:

Not sure I like that Fuzz.

Dickerson, Deshields and Holiday are irelevant if you are only keeping 7. None of those guys are better than top 100 talent. Dickerson being in TB now puts him right on the keeper fringe. If you are giving up the earlier pick, that is bad for you.

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I only plan to keep Arenado and Hosmer. Dickerson will be a throw back that might be avilable with my 2nd round pick. Deshields and Holiday went to him. Carlos Gomez was a borderline keeper in my mind anyway. Arenado being a Rockie probably swayed the deal for me.

How did this deal change though?

Seems like the current offer is a lot worse than the original.

Is that # 1 overall that you give up to get #8? Or is it 15?

You should be getting the pick upgrade here, and even if you are, the difference between 8 and 15 after 98 keepers are off the board is negligible. I assumed from the original post that you were getting a first rounder and giving a late round pick.

Arenado is a stud and I would take Hosmer over Gomez easily, so I don't think you will be hurting any time soon, but I do feel like you kind of gave away those 2 extra years of control for Harper.

tlance said:

How did this deal change though?

Seems like the current offer is a lot worse than the original.

Is that # 1 overall that you give up to get #8? Or is it 15?

You should be getting the pick upgrade here, and even if you are, the difference between 8 and 15 after 98 keepers are off the board is negligible. I assumed from the original post that you were getting a first rounder and giving a late round pick.

Arenado is a stud and I would take Hosmer over Gomez easily, so I don't think you will be hurting any time soon, but I do feel like you kind of gave away those 2 extra years of control for Harper.

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I am giving the #1 pick which he will use to select Harper- so basically he gets #1 pick and Gomez. I get 8th pick in first round, Arenado, Hosmer and Dickerson. the 8th pick looks to be Freddie Freeman, Puig, or Kimbrel or one of a handful of decent SP that will be thrown back. Does this clear this up?
@tlance

Yellow Fuzzies said:

I am giving the #1 pick which he will use to select Harper- so basically he gets #1 pick and Gomez. I get 8th pick in first round, Arenado, Hosmer and Dickerson. the 8th pick looks to be Freddie Freeman, Puig, or Kimbrel or one of a handful of decent SP that will be thrown back. Does this clear this up?
@tlance

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Yes. lol. Much better now!