My draft strategy going. Should I change anything?

iowajerms · Aug 14, 2018

12 teams (I think), PPR

Here is my plan for the first 4 rounds.

Round 1 - RB/WR
Round 2 - RB/WR
Round 3 - RB/WR/Gronk or Kelce if available
Round 4 - RB/WR/maybe QB (Rodgers, Wilson, Brady)

My Top 50 player ranking

1. LeVeon Bell
2. Todd Gurley
3. David Johnson - Will new, young QB be helpful or hurtful for Johnson?
4. Antonio Brown
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. Alvin Kamara
7. Julio Jones - I had him last year. I almost cut him but when he had that monster game, he ended up winning the league for me after that. So I am high on him.
8. DeAndre Hopkins
9. Odell Beckham Jr. - I am almost wanting him higher. I know the injury last year, but wouldn't Barkley help him here?
10. Kareem Hunt - Same question as David Johnson
11. Saquon Barkley
12. Melvin Gordon

13. Dalvin Cook - I drafted him last year. He looked like a steal until he got injured.
14. Michael Thomas
15. Keenan Allen
16. Leonard Fournette
17. AJ Green
18. Davante Adams
19. Christian McCaffrey
20. Mike Evans
21. Devonta Freeman
22. Larry Fitzgerald - I don't know what to think with him. Some boards have him high, some have him low. I am thinking with new QB, he might be relied upon.
23. TY Hilton
24. Rob Gronkowski - If I am last pick in 2nd round and he is available, I might pick him.

25. Travis Kelce
26. Adam Thielen
27. Jerick McKinnon
28. Joe Mixon
29. Jordan Howard
30. Stefon Diggs
31. Tyreek Hill
32. Demaryius Thomas
33. LeSean McCoy
34. Doug Baldwin
35. Allen Robinson
36. Amari Cooper

37. Zach Ertz
38. Golden Tate
39. Sammy Watkins - I might move him up. He was a steal for me last year. I think he will do good at KC.
40. Aaron Rodgers
41. Jarvis Landry
42. Jay Ajayi
43. Alshon Jeffery
44. Kenyan Drake
45. Marvin Jones
46. Alex Collins
47. Juju Smith-Schuster
48. Brandon Cooks

49. Russell Wilson
50. Dion Lewis

What do you think?

TREFF · Aug 14, 2018

iowajerms said:
12 teams (I think), PPR

Here is my plan for the first 4 rounds.

Round 1 - RB/WR
Round 2 - RB/WR
Round 3 - RB/WR/Gronk or Kelce if available
Round 4 - RB/WR/maybe QB (Rodgers, Wilson, Brady)

My Top 50 player ranking

1. LeVeon Bell
2. Todd Gurley
3. David Johnson - Will new, young QB be helpful or hurtful for Johnson?
4. Antonio Brown
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. Alvin Kamara
7. Julio Jones - I had him last year. I almost cut him but when he had that monster game, he ended up winning the league for me after that. So I am high on him.
8. DeAndre Hopkins
9. Odell Beckham Jr. - I am almost wanting him higher. I know the injury last year, but wouldn't Barkley help him here?
10. Kareem Hunt - Same question as David Johnson
11. Saquon Barkley
12. Melvin Gordon

13. Dalvin Cook - I drafted him last year. He looked like a steal until he got injured.
14. Michael Thomas
15. Keenan Allen
16. Leonard Fournette
17. AJ Green
18. Davante Adams
19. Christian McCaffrey
20. Mike Evans
21. Devonta Freeman
22. Larry Fitzgerald - I don't know what to think with him. Some boards have him high, some have him low. I am thinking with new QB, he might be relied upon.
23. TY Hilton
24. Rob Gronkowski - If I am last pick in 2nd round and he is available, I might pick him.

25. Travis Kelce
26. Adam Thielen
27. Jerick McKinnon
28. Joe Mixon
29. Jordan Howard
30. Stefon Diggs
31. Tyreek Hill
32. Demaryius Thomas
33. LeSean McCoy
34. Doug Baldwin
35. Allen Robinson
36. Amari Cooper

37. Zach Ertz
38. Golden Tate
39. Sammy Watkins - I might move him up. He was a steal for me last year. I think he will do good at KC.
40. Aaron Rodgers
41. Jarvis Landry
42. Jay Ajayi
43. Alshon Jeffery
44. Kenyan Drake
45. Marvin Jones
46. Alex Collins
47. Juju Smith-Schuster
48. Brandon Cooks

49. Russell Wilson
50. Dion Lewis

What do you think?

Wouldn't bother considering a QB in the 4th, especially if you go TE in the 3rd. There's just simply too many of them that can compete with Rodgers weekly total, especially with Luck, Wentz, and Watson returning, Goff blossoming, and the usual suspects still pumping out high numbers, usually.

Otherwise, yea, planning on best available RB/WR the first rounds seems pretty viable.

I didn't comb over your rankings too in depth, but there's no way I'd put Julio over Hopkins and Beckham. He just doesn't get the TD's to justify it. Don't romance over that one big week that won you a title, detach and realize that for ten other weeks he disappointed

SteelersPride · Aug 14, 2018

Yes don’t have a strategy. Let the draft come to you, best advice I can give

iowajerms · Aug 14, 2018

TREFF said:
Wouldn't bother considering a QB in the 4th, especially if you go TE in the 3rd. There's just simply too many of them that can compete with Rodgers weekly total, especially with Luck, Wentz, and Watson returning, Goff blossoming, and the usual suspects still pumping out high numbers, usually.

Otherwise, yea, planning on best available RB/WR the first rounds seems pretty viable.

I didn't comb over your rankings too in depth, but there's no way I'd put Julio over Hopkins and Beckham. He just doesn't get the TD's to justify it. Don't romance over that one big week that won you a title, detach and realize that for ten other weeks he disappointed

That one week got him off the bench. He was one of the top WRs after that week. But you made a good point about him not scoring enough TDs. I'll bump Hopkins and OBJ above him.

What are your thoughts on Larry Fitzgerald? Some boards have him Top 25 and some have him near 40s. I have him at 22, but I don't know if it is a smart move.

iowajerms · Aug 14, 2018

SteelersPride said:
Yes don’t have a strategy. Let the draft come to you, best advice I can give

I disagree. Not so much for the drafting but when I don't come up with a strategy, I tend to lose interest during the season. With a strategy, I tend to want to win more.

Although, a few years ago, I had an amazing team. By far the best scoring team on a consistent basis. It was just when other people played me, it was their players' best week. Who I faced had the highest score and I would always have the 2nd highest score. I didn't have a strategy that year, but I also didn't make the league's playoffs. About halfway through the season, my team had enough injuries and my record was crap that I lost interest.

Last year, I had a lot of injuries, but I had a strong bench and I had some good gambles. I got Kittle at TE and Garapollo when I heard about him go to the 49ers. I also knew PHI defense was going to be a steal last year.

SteelersPride · Aug 14, 2018

I am a firm believer u can’t peg urself into players or positions or your gonna lose. To many factors at play

SteelersPride · Aug 14, 2018

Either way good luck

TREFF · Aug 14, 2018

SteelersPride said:
I am a firm believer u can’t peg urself into players or positions or your gonna lose. To many factors at play

I would say he's got a pretty flexible plan, not pegging himself into much of anything. About the same plan we all do, best RB/WR available, unless a QB or TE value presents itself..I'd say we pretty much all draft that way here, we just don't put it down in as many words

TREFF · Aug 14, 2018

iowajerms said:
That one week got him off the bench. He was one of the top WRs after that week. But you made a good point about him not scoring enough TDs. I'll bump Hopkins and OBJ above him.

What are your thoughts on Larry Fitzgerald? Some boards have him Top 25 and some have him near 40s. I have him at 22, but I don't know if it is a smart move.

Top 25 would be a tiny stretch for me, if for no other reason than the uncertainty at QB..either Bradford, who simply can't be counted on for more than a handful of starts, or an unproven took who was passed on by more than a few QB needy teams.

Having said that, he's right there in the conversation, because he simply still is that damn good

iowajerms · Aug 14, 2018

TREFF said:
Top 25 would be a tiny stretch for me, if for no other reason than the uncertainty at QB..either Bradford, who simply can't be counted on for more than a handful of starts, or an unproven took who was passed on by more than a few QB needy teams.

Having said that, he's right there in the conversation, because he simply still is that damn good

I'll be loading up on WRs and RBs anyway. I guess he wouldn't be a bad late 2nd-early 3rd round pick. At the very least, he will be a good bench player.

leftypower · Aug 14, 2018

iowajerms said:
That one week got him off the bench. He was one of the top WRs after that week. But you made a good point about him not scoring enough TDs. I'll bump Hopkins and OBJ above him.

What are your thoughts on Larry Fitzgerald? Some boards have him Top 25 and some have him near 40s. I have him at 22, but I don't know if it is a smart move.

He's gonna be very good. ... and VERY valuable in ppr. I think he proved that crappy QBs don't make nearly as much difference with him as it does with many WRs. ... like Treff pointed out - he's just that damn good. .. top 30 overall is very attainable, as well as top 15 WR (as a basement floor).

averagejoe · Aug 14, 2018

iowajerms said:
What do you think?

Nice list.
I think you have too many WR in the top 2 rounds.
You said this PPR but you still want RB.
A guy like Mixon won't be there where you have him.
Also, McCaffrey is too low. Nearly all of his touches are receptions.

iowajerms · Aug 14, 2018

averagejoe said:
Nice list.
I think you have too many WR in the top 2 rounds.
You said this PPR but you still want RB.
A guy like Mixon won't be there where you have him.
Also, McCaffrey is too low. Nearly all of his touches are receptions.

I moved McCaffrey up to #11, right after Kareem Hunt. I moved Joe Mixon up to #19, where Christian McCaffrey was.

Here is my cheatsheet so far. At this site, you reorder and I am at #123 right now. So, #124 and on are the default order the site has them that I have not picked.

Barilko · Aug 14, 2018

I believe that Steeler may have been slightly misunderstood

Yes a draft strategy is important however as the draft unfolds you may need to adjust accordingly ( ie let the draft come to you)

Never reach in the first half of the draft and make adjustments as the draft unfolds.

I would also suggest ( as Treff said) that you should not go QB early especially if you have already taken a TE.

maybe in 4 or 5 but certainly not if you have chosen a TE already

I too move Hopkins up and Julio down and I love Julio

as for losing interest during the season that should have squat all to do with draft strategy

More importantly Do not lose interest if you are behind the 8 ball by mid or mid to late season as it has a direct effect on the integrity of the league

Imagine a team playing for his playoff life gets a freebie because his opponent has lost interest while another team in the same fight is facing an opponent who is all in and oh so tough to beat

Now you never stated that you would do that but losing interest usually can mean just that

Believe you me it is quite important to be all in at all times

I play in leagues that dictate if you are not all in at all times then you won’t be invited back to play again

Anyhow Good Luck with your draft and the season to follow

TKOSpikes · Aug 14, 2018

After maybe a dozen WR, I see little value taking them over second and third tier RB.

But I am a RB nut. And I like playing the WR matchup search. You can always turn RB into WR come October with little effort, if need be...especially when you have options to spare.

iowajerms · Aug 14, 2018

Barilko said:
I believe that Steeler may have been slightly misunderstood

Yes a draft strategy is important however as the draft unfolds you may need to adjust accordingly ( ie let the draft come to you)

Never reach in the first half of the draft and make adjustments as the draft unfolds.

I would also suggest ( as Treff said) that you should not go QB early especially if you have already taken a TE.

maybe in 4 or 5 but certainly not if you have chosen a TE already

I too move Hopkins up and Julio down and I love Julio

as for losing interest during the season that should have squat all to do with draft strategy

More importantly Do not lose interest if you are behind the 8 ball by mid or mid to late season as it has a direct effect on the integrity of the league

Imagine a team playing for his playoff life gets a freebie because his opponent has lost interest while another team in the same fight is facing an opponent who is all in and oh so tough to beat

Now you never stated that you would do that but losing interest usually can mean just that

Believe you me it is quite important to be all in at all times

I play in leagues that dictate if you are not all in at all times then you won’t be invited back to play again

Anyhow Good Luck with your draft and the season to follow

Thanks for the advice.

It is a church league. Most know who players are and if they are good or not, but not understand the values of them. A couple do. One lady does it just for the social aspect of it, and she wants to learn more about the players.

I don't strictly stick to my strategy. I do look at bye weeks of players. I did that last year and I am sure I won some games because teams I played had their star players have bye weeks the same week. I don't let it affect my ranking but I do let it affect my draft. I also don't strictly follow my rankings if I feel a player can be drop.

One advice I got from here last year is load up on RBs and WRs before going for QB, and it worked out well. I don't even look at K. None will make my rankings. I just wait til the final round and pick who ESPN says is the best available. I also look for sleeper DST. Last year, Sporting News mentioned how PHI had a top 10 defense and led league in turnovers 2 years ago (or something like that) but was young and that is why they were not ranked very high. I was hoping they would drop til a late round and they did.

averagejoe · Aug 14, 2018

Round 3 - RB/WR/Gronk or Kelce if available

I did want to comment on this but I know I'm probably in the minority.
I feel it is a waste to use a top 3-round pick on a TE. ANY TE.
Gronk has health issues and I feel Kelce is another concussion away from missing multiple games (NFL protocol).
There are still solid options in round 3 that should outscore Gronk and Kelce.
But again, that's just me.

MilkSpiller22 · Aug 14, 2018

averagejoe said:
I did want to comment on this but I know I'm probably in the minority.
I feel it is a waste to use a top 3-round pick on a TE. ANY TE.
Gronk has health issues and I feel Kelce is another concussion away from missing multiple games (NFL protocol).
There are still solid options in round 3 that should outscore Gronk and Kelce.
But again, that's just me.

I feel like that depends on how many owners are in the league. 10 or less I say go get an elite te. 12 to 14, I agree with you that I would rather have a wr or rb there. But in a 16 or more I once again like having an elite te.

And of course league rules determine this too. Some leagues give te receptions a bonus.

Beengay fudgepackers · Aug 14, 2018

You’re not going to win without a good kicker.

Barilko · Aug 14, 2018

averagejoe said:
I did want to comment on this but I know I'm probably in the minority.
I feel it is a waste to use a top 3-round pick on a TE. ANY TE.
Gronk has health issues and I feel Kelce is another concussion away from missing multiple games (NFL protocol).
There are still solid options in round 3 that should outscore Gronk and Kelce.
But again, that's just me.

well me as well...

My draft strategy going. Should I change anything?

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You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.

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You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.

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