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Seahawks 2018 offseason thread

Anointed One

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And now they have Thomas, McDougal, Alexander and Chancellor (if he can ever come back) ahead of them. I’m not saying they can’t become good players, I’m saying the chances of them ever making it as major contributors on defense at any point in their careers takes a huge hit if they are buried on the depth chart again this season. If they can’t beat Maurice Alexander out this season, then they are most likely nothing more than career special teamers whether Thomas moves on next year or not.

They don't have Maurice Alexander starting ahead of them in training camp so that's a moot point... Thompson and Hill are running with the 1's... Can't discredit these guys when they haven't even had the opportunity to get on the field due to Thomas and McDougald being healthy... We have two very good safeties ahead of them on the depth chart... Doesn't mean they won't be good safeties themselves when given the chance...

... and don't count on Kam this year... He shouldn't even be in the discussion...
 
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blstoker

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They don't have Maurice Alexander starting ahead of them in training camp so that's a moot point... Thompson and Hill are running with the 1's... Can't discredit these guys when they haven't even had the opportunity to get on the field due to Thomas and McDougald being healthy... We have two very good safeties ahead of them on the depth chart... Doesn't mean they won't be good safeties themselves when given the chance...

... and don't count on Kam this year... He shouldn't even be in the discussion...

I don't expect Kam to play another snap in the NFL. So, not counting on him this season, but until he retires or is cut, he's still on the team - and if he can ever pass a physical - he'll be ahead of them hence the statement: "if he can ever come back".

I can't credit them with anything until I see more than 32 career defensive snaps from them. Thompson could be the next Thomas, but no one can claim that until he's had more than 9 plays. All I'm really saying is that the chances they have anything beyond special teams contributions drop significantly if they do not become solid contributors by the end of their second season. Statistically, if McDougal and Thomas both play through the season, then neither Hill nor Thompson will ever become starting safeties in the NFL, even if Thomas leaves after this season. Not impossible, just extremely unlikely.

Furthermore, last year we had depth because we brought in a young NFL veteran who had starting experience at both safety positions. This season, we have two unproven second year players who have to compete with the newest young NFL veteran with starting experience at both safety positions. As training camp hasn't started yet, I can't say that what's happening in the OTAs is a true indication of the depth chart. Since I always felt Alexander sucked, I'm not exactly cheering for him to fill the McDougal role from last season. I just can't say that we have good depth at the safety position - because I just don't know that right now.
 

HaroldSeattle

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I don't expect Kam to play another snap in the NFL. So, not counting on him this season, but until he retires or is cut, he's still on the team - and if he can ever pass a physical - he'll be ahead of them hence the statement: "if he can ever come back".

I can't credit them with anything until I see more than 32 career defensive snaps from them. Thompson could be the next Thomas, but no one can claim that until he's had more than 9 plays. All I'm really saying is that the chances they have anything beyond special teams contributions drop significantly if they do not become solid contributors by the end of their second season. Statistically, if McDougal and Thomas both play through the season, then neither Hill nor Thompson will ever become starting safeties in the NFL, even if Thomas leaves after this season. Not impossible, just extremely unlikely.

Furthermore, last year we had depth because we brought in a young NFL veteran who had starting experience at both safety positions. This season, we have two unproven second year players who have to compete with the newest young NFL veteran with starting experience at both safety positions. As training camp hasn't started yet, I can't say that what's happening in the OTAs is a true indication of the depth chart. Since I always felt Alexander sucked, I'm not exactly cheering for him to fill the McDougal role from last season. I just can't say that we have good depth at the safety position - because I just don't know that right now.
Seahawks trying to put together the next group of you guys to develop, going to take more then a single season. Take there lumps this season and have better draft positions ever round next season. I don’t see how handing out a multi year contract at high $s to a aging player, really fits.
 

Screamin12th

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Lost Lockette to a neck injury and Avril, Now we might lose Kam. One of the best Gunners we have ever had and a stud cover guy on kick offs And a threat in the passing game. A DE that was WAY underrated and was better than Bennett and possibly one of the best SS in the league? Hope that little trend has ended and Kam is able to play like his normal self. If not thats a brutal 3 loses to the same type injury with in a couple seasons.
 

blstoker

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Seahawks trying to put together the next group of you guys to develop, going to take more then a single season. Take there lumps this season and have better draft positions ever round next season. I don’t see how handing out a multi year contract at high $s to a aging player, really fits.

Don't care if they re-sign Thomas or not. I'm not arguing that he should be re-signed or not. I'm arguing that we don't have depth just because we have bodies that are signed for that position. Every team has bodies signed behind their starters. They could turn out, they might not, but depth would imply that there would be little to no drop if we exchange the starter for the back up - and we just don't know if that is really the case. Thomas very well could be done in Seattle after this season, and if he is, I'm not convinced yet that his replacement is currently on the roster.

There are plenty of reasons that Seattle may want to move on from Thomas:

He's high priced. If he's wanting $13 million per year, that's pretty high. Only Eric Berry has an average that high as a safety. It's expensive to maintain a bunch of $10+ million salaries and the Seahawks already have a few moving forward, and Russell will need extending next year. Overall, safeties just aren't generally paid that much, so even being the best safety in the league wouldn't necessarily guarantee that you'll make that much money.

He's getting older. He's 29 right now, and so his future is a little murky when it comes to when will he start to drop off. Luckily for him, 30 isn't nearly as bad for safeties as it is for running backs, and he's probably got 3-5 years of production before he starts to decline in any significant manner. Hell, there are plenty of examples of guys playing high level free safety into their late 30s. So, Thomas could still have 10 years left to play (unlikely) and could easily live up to any 3-4 year extension he would sign right now. I just don't see his age being that big a deal in the discussion, he's not 34.

Injury concerns. Yes, injury can be a problem with long term deals, but Chancellor's situation isn't exactly the norm when it comes to these deals. A vast majority of players don't sign huge deals and then have career threatening injuries the next season that hamper their team's ability to move on. Also, it isn't like Thomas is Bob Sanders all of a sudden and has so many injury concerns it's a wonder he even plays football.

Seattle's moving on from high priced talent this offseason. Sherman, Bennett, Graham, Avril and Lane have all been moved on from. The difference between Thomas and those 5 is that each of those 5 had glaring issues other than just their high price tag that made moving on from them sensible. If the Seahawks move on from Thomas it will be solely because his high price tag - cause as of right now he doesn't have any other red flags on his performance that I know of.

Thomas' post game screw up last season. This one would appear to be more fan focused than I would imagine it is a front office concern. If he gets signed long term, then whatever idiotic momentary lapse of judgement culminated in him making that comment would be moot. If not, then he could very well end up in Dallas. I'm not gonna cry over it, either way.
 

WizardHawk

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If they can't come to terms I could see the Hawks using the Franchise tag on Thomas next year. I'm sure they are using that threat in negotiations right now. Doubt they want to do more than a 3y deal while his people are drawing a line in the sand for 4y. M's don't have just one year left of Thomas, they have two with a tag and still not pay anything close to what a new contract would cost.
 

HaroldSeattle

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According to ProFootball reference 85% of NFL players are 30 or younger and although I didn’t look further I would guess the vast majority of that 15% are kickers and QBs, so yeah signing a 29 year old player to a multi year contract is going against the odds, throw in the fact that he won’t come cheap it doesn’t seem wise IMO to go that route.
I got this from a ESPN write up.
The best NFL players at every age, from 21-44
 

Racer8825

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Lost Lockette to a neck injury and Avril, Now we might lose Kam. One of the best Gunners we have ever had and a stud cover guy on kick offs And a threat in the passing game. A DE that was WAY underrated and was better than Bennett and possibly one of the best SS in the league? Hope that little trend has ended and Kam is able to play like his normal self. If not thats a brutal 3 loses to the same type injury with in a couple seasons.

Are you referring to Tyler Lockett?
 

HaroldSeattle

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If they can't come to terms I could see the Hawks using the Franchise tag on Thomas next year. I'm sure they are using that threat in negotiations right now. Doubt they want to do more than a 3y deal while his people are drawing a line in the sand for 4y. M's don't have just one year left of Thomas, they have two with a tag and still not pay anything close to what a new contract would cost.
Might every well be the route they go.
 

Sharkonabicycle

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I'm not for re-signing Thomas or Chancellor at this point.

Both were some of the best (if not THE) safeties that Seattle ever utilized, but time to move on. Thomas' motivation and passion is a question mark for me after his dumbass Dallas/retirement comments, and Kam is just too injury prone which is not going to get better given his style of play.

IMO ride both out this season to help the younger guys transition and hopefully pick up some tricks of the trade, and then move on. I really wasn't high on Kam's extension to begin with, and am certainly NOT for signing Thomas at 30 to a $13M per contract. I'd LOVE to keep him around for $8-9M per...

Since Thomas wants $13M per, I guess he can go to some shitty team with a fuck ton of cap room and be miserable, because that's what is pretty much happening. He sure as fuck all isn't going to Dallas for $13M per.. maybe he can go to Houston given Watson is cheap mode for a while.. IMO that seems more likely.
 

Racer8825

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I'm not for re-signing Thomas or Chancellor at this point.

Both were some of the best (if not THE) safeties that Seattle ever utilized, but time to move on. Thomas' motivation and passion is a question mark for me after his dumbass Dallas/retirement comments, and Kam is just too injury prone which is not going to get better given his style of play.

IMO ride both out this season to help the younger guys transition and hopefully pick up some tricks of the trade, and then move on. I really wasn't high on Kam's extension to begin with, and am certainly NOT for signing Thomas at 30 to a $13M per contract. I'd LOVE to keep him around for $8-9M per...

Since Thomas wants $13M per, I guess he can go to some shitty team with a fuck ton of cap room and be miserable, because that's what is pretty much happening. He sure as fuck all isn't going to Dallas for $13M per.. maybe he can go to Houston given Watson is cheap mode for a while.. IMO that seems more likely.

Watch ET go to the Jets to mentor the young guys there.
 

WizardHawk

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The leverage for both sides seems pretty straight up in the Thomas contract negotiation. The Hawks can push that they will just tag Earl and not have to worry about any guarantees, and his agent can make the threat of retirement. I mean he really doesn't have much other leverage does he? The threat of holding out and taking into the season is there, but I'm not sure it carries nearly as much weight as it did a year or two ago.
 

blstoker

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According to ProFootball reference 85% of NFL players are 30 or younger and although I didn’t look further I would guess the vast majority of that 15% are kickers and QBs, so yeah signing a 29 year old player to a multi year contract is going against the odds, throw in the fact that he won’t come cheap it doesn’t seem wise IMO to go that route.
I got this from a ESPN write up.
The best NFL players at every age, from 21-44

Yes, and more than half of those players won't become starters and only about 10% will ever become anything close to what Thomas is.

1970-2017 (Safeties with 3 All Pros, including total seasons played, age at final All-Pro, age at final Pro Bowl and age for final season as starter)

Ronnie Lott (14 - 32 - 32 -35)
Rod Woodson (17 - 37 - 37 - 38)
Ed Reed (12 - 32 - 34 - 35)
LeRoy Butler (12 - 30 - 30 - 33)
Brian Dawkins (16 - 33 - 38 - 38)
Troy Polamaly (12 - 30 - 32 - 33)
Eric Berry (8 - 28 - 28 - 29)
Joey Browner (12 - 30 - 30 - 32)
Don Cherry (11 - 29 - 29 - 32)
Nolan Cromwell (11 - 27 - 28 - 32)
Kenny Easley (7 - 26 - 28 - 28)
Cliff Harris (10 - 30 - 31 - 31)
Donnie Shell (14 - 30 - 30 - 35)
Earl Thomas (8 - 25 - 28 - 28)
Aeneas Williams (14 - 33 - 35 - 36)
Charles Woodson (18 -35 - 39 - 39)
Darren Woodson (12 - 27 - 29 - 34)

On average, safeties who have 3 or more all pro (whether at s or cb) will on average be awarded their final All Pro at the age of 31, their final pro bowl at age 32 and have their final year as a starter at age 34. So, if Thomas were just an average safety who has had similar success as he has had, Thomas should (barring career ending injury) be at an All Pro level for the next 3 years, Pro Bowl level for the next 4 years and at starter level from the next 6 years. Thomas and Berry were excluded from the averages since their careers aren't over yet.

The numbers are even more in his favor since 1990, as teams became more pass happy. Final AP at age 32 (4 more years), final PB at age 34 (6 more years) and final starting year at age 36 (8 more years).

Now, this isn't to guarantee Thomas 8 more years, I'm just pointing out that an elite safety isn't necessarily coming to the end of his ability to play just because he's 29. I believe Thomas has 3-4 high quality seasons left in him with maybe a couple more ok years after that. In total, that's a 12-14 year career, which is on par with 11 of the 15 safeties listed above. Chances are, none of the safeties on our roster, other than McDougal, are likely to give Seattle the level of play that Thomas can over the next 3-6 years.

Now, is the difference in estimated value between Thomas and Thompson worth an extra $10-12 million a year? No, idea, which is why I'm not actually saying he has to be re-signed - just saying that his career isn't over because he's 29.
 

HaroldSeattle

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Yes, and more than half of those players won't become starters and only about 10% will ever become anything close to what Thomas is.

1970-2017 (Safeties with 3 All Pros, including total seasons played, age at final All-Pro, age at final Pro Bowl and age for final season as starter)

Ronnie Lott (14 - 32 - 32 -35)
Rod Woodson (17 - 37 - 37 - 38)
Ed Reed (12 - 32 - 34 - 35)
LeRoy Butler (12 - 30 - 30 - 33)
Brian Dawkins (16 - 33 - 38 - 38)
Troy Polamaly (12 - 30 - 32 - 33)
Eric Berry (8 - 28 - 28 - 29)
Joey Browner (12 - 30 - 30 - 32)
Don Cherry (11 - 29 - 29 - 32)
Nolan Cromwell (11 - 27 - 28 - 32)
Kenny Easley (7 - 26 - 28 - 28)
Cliff Harris (10 - 30 - 31 - 31)
Donnie Shell (14 - 30 - 30 - 35)
Earl Thomas (8 - 25 - 28 - 28)
Aeneas Williams (14 - 33 - 35 - 36)
Charles Woodson (18 -35 - 39 - 39)
Darren Woodson (12 - 27 - 29 - 34)

On average, safeties who have 3 or more all pro (whether at s or cb) will on average be awarded their final All Pro at the age of 31, their final pro bowl at age 32 and have their final year as a starter at age 34. So, if Thomas were just an average safety who has had similar success as he has had, Thomas should (barring career ending injury) be at an All Pro level for the next 3 years, Pro Bowl level for the next 4 years and at starter level from the next 6 years. Thomas and Berry were excluded from the averages since their careers aren't over yet.

The numbers are even more in his favor since 1990, as teams became more pass happy. Final AP at age 32 (4 more years), final PB at age 34 (6 more years) and final starting year at age 36 (8 more years).

Now, this isn't to guarantee Thomas 8 more years, I'm just pointing out that an elite safety isn't necessarily coming to the end of his ability to play just because he's 29. I believe Thomas has 3-4 high quality seasons left in him with maybe a couple more ok years after that. In total, that's a 12-14 year career, which is on par with 11 of the 15 safeties listed above. Chances are, none of the safeties on our roster, other than McDougal, are likely to give Seattle the level of play that Thomas can over the next 3-6 years.

Now, is the difference in estimated value between Thomas and Thompson worth an extra $10-12 million a year? No, idea, which is why I'm not actually saying he has to be re-signed - just saying that his career isn't over because he's 29.

Of course you can find plenty of players over the last decade that beat the odds. Doesn't change the fact that they are the exceptions to the rule. So IMO best not to go against the odds. Let him play out his contract, then if he preforms well you can always franchise tag him while working on extension that is team friendly. Some core players that are IMO going to be part of next run at the SB are going to have to have their contracts addressed in a year or two, Wagner, Wright and RW. Seahawks have already been burnt by handing out a third contract to good players. Just doesn't pay to go against the odds when it comes to age, no matter how good they've been in the past, unless it's a kicker or QB.
In any case, we all have our opinions on how this should go down, but the Seahawks will be the ones calling the shots. I'll roll with what ever they decide.
 

blstoker

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That was a few years ago. He wasn't that good to begin with I thought.

It was 2015. So 3 career ending (if Chancellor never plays again) neck injuries in 3 years does seem kind've high.
 

jerseyhawksfan79

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Seahawks trying to put together the next group of you guys to develop, going to take more then a single season. Take there lumps this season and have better draft positions ever round next season. I don’t see how handing out a multi year contract at high $s to a aging player, really fits.

Maybe give him his 4th year and more up front money if he lowers his asking price a bit?
 
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