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Hit-n-Run

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For the past three seasons it's been the same broken record strategy of bringing in a veteran to anchor down the staff. The same old we need a veteran to pitch deep into the game and pitch 200 innings. Please make it stop!!

Jason Marquis, Alfredo Simon, Scott Feldman, and Bronson Arroyo had a combined ERA of 7.38 and collectively pitched 288 innings. They all stunk and none of those guys were a path forward.

It's time to let the youngsters swim in the deep end of the pool.

If Homer, Disco, and Finnegan can't tread water then it's time to move on from them as well.
 

JohnU

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I think Disco can pitch 150 innings. His injuries aren't threatening his career.
I don't have as much hope for Finny, no reason for saying that.
Homer will be all right, I think.
Stevie can pitch ever 5th day but he isn't a great pitcher.
I look for a roster change of some importance this fall.
Duvall maybe, Suarez would be gold to trade.
 

Hit-n-Run

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It's unpredictable what the three rehab stooges will give the Reds.

Moe Bailey finished the season healthy and pitching, so I'd say he's the leader of the pack.

Larry Disco spent the entire season being shutdown every time he attempted to throw. I think he's headed for TJ surgery if he actually pitches.

Then there's Curly Brandon. Two bad shoulders and a bit of an attitude. Pitchers with shoulder injuries that require surgery never seem to return to form. Hell, I'm not even sure what returning to form means for Finnegan.
 

Hit-n-Run

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Eugenio Suarez's stock has risen with his much improved defense and a solid year offensively. He's into his arbitration years, so if the Reds aren't thinking about extending him with a couple options years I'd say trading him is a possibilty. I'd like to see the club extend him with club option years at the end.

I think Nick Senzel's arrival time and where they see him playing in the field gives the team some flexibilty in who stays and who makes sense to trade. Buddy Bell is pretty high on Nick Senzel's versatilty. Reports are he's a plus defender at 3rd that could play elsewhere if needed.
 

JohnU

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Eugenio Suarez's stock has risen with his much improved defense and a solid year offensively. He's into his arbitration years, so if the Reds aren't thinking about extending him with a couple options years I'd say trading him is a possibilty. I'd like to see the club extend him with club option years at the end.

I think Nick Senzel's arrival time and where they see him playing in the field gives the team some flexibilty in who stays and who makes sense to trade. Buddy Bell is pretty high on Nick Senzel's versatilty. Reports are he's a plus defender at 3rd that could play elsewhere if needed.
Dealing Suarez is a gamble. The best logic shoves him back to SS, leaves Peraza and Scooter at 2B and puts Senzel at third. So that might happen.
 

Hit-n-Run

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Dealing Suarez is a gamble. The best logic shoves him back to SS, leaves Peraza and Scooter at 2B and puts Senzel

I think that would make sense if Nick Senzel makes the club out of ST. As we've seen clubs manipulate the days of service to get that extra year of team control. So Nick Senzel probably begins 2018 in Louisville.

I've heard Dick Williams talking about Nick Senzel and how they plan to play him in different positions during ST. I don't think there's any way he's going to be the UT guy, it's probably just the Reds getting a feel for what the options are moving forward and a way to spread the ST AB'S around.

The Reds have spent a lot of money on Cuban SS signings recently. None of them are ready to take the reigns, so they're in need of someone to fill the gap in the interim. It would seem either Suarez or Peraza play SS to start the season. I think in the short term it's going to be Peraza. By the All Star break... who knows?
 

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The guy that has the most uncertainty surrounding his future role with the Reds is Dilson Herrera. He finally had shoulder surgery after it being a problem for 2+ seasons. Now he's out of assignment options and possibly any option of making the club unless the Reds trade an infielder or two. I wouldn't think Dilson has much trade value by himself, but he could be used to sweeten the pot. It doesn't sweeten the pot very much though.

Dilson Herrera is a tough fit for most any team at this point. He's coming off surgery, has little MLB experience, only plays 2nd, and has no assignment options. He's at the point in career where teams are more interested after he's cleared waivers or released and can be signed to a minor league deal.
 
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JohnU

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The guy that has the most uncertainty surrounding his future role with the Reds is Dilson Herrera. He finally had shoulder surgery after it being a problem for 2+ seasons. Now he's out of assignment options and possibly any option of making the club unless the Reds trade an infielder or two. I wouldn't think Dilson has much trade value by himself, but he could be used to sweeten the pot. It doesn't sweeten the pot very much though.

Dilson Herrera is a tough fit for most any team at this point. He's coming off surgery, has little MLB experience, only plays 2nd, and has no assignment options. He's at the point in career where teams are more interested after he's cleared waivers or released and can be signed to a minor league deal.
All defense aside, can the guy hit? If so, he will find work in the big leagues. Having Gennett changes the dynamic for the Reds now, since Dilson isn't necessarily the guy who replaces Brandon Phillips. He is the guy who now has to compete for a spot on the roster. Dilson can walk if he wants.
 

Hit-n-Run

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The biggest thing Dilson Herrera has going for him is 6 years of team control. If the Reds still have confidence in the kid it'll be interesting to see how they handle the situation.

One of the biggest challenges for Dick Williams is making the decisions that will allow the club to maintain a viable offense while allowing the pithing to catch up. I would think his decisions are going to be made looking past the 2018 season.
 

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It takes time to develop pitchers. By the time the reds develop quality pitchers the hitting will most likely be gone.
 

Hit-n-Run

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That's why I think we may see some of the same lower level free agents signings to fill out the 2018 roster, but any trades of significance will be geared toward improving the club in 2019 and beyond. Luis Castillo for Dan Straily type trade scenarios.
 

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The next milestone of the offseason is the non-tender deadline Friday. The Reds have 5 players eligible for arbitration and their projected salary.
Scooter $5.5m
Hamilton $5m
Suarez $4M
Lorenzen $1.5m
Disco $1m
I think the Reds offer all of them arbitration.
 

JohnU

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The next milestone of the offseason is the non-tender deadline Friday. The Reds have 5 players eligible for arbitration and their projected salary.
Scooter $5.5m
Hamilton $5m
Suarez $4M
Lorenzen $1.5m
Disco $1m
I think the Reds offer all of them arbitration.
I think it's 5 predictable roster spots, with the exception of Disco.
I think Lorenzen will get a shot at starting so the team is virtually committed to that process.
Gotta keep Scooter after a year that he will never duplicate.
I don't think the organization is in terrible shape though one wonders how they will put together a sustainable pitching staff. The 2012 version of the Reds was historically interesting, and won't ever happen again.
But I look at the Dodgers who had 6 or 7 better-than-average rotation guys available. You have to basically buy that.
 

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Scooter could do very well in arbitration.

I'm not sure I totally understand arbitration though. Is there a celling on it, or is it wide open how much a player could get. I don't see much of an argument for there Reds saying he doesn't deserve such in such amount though.
 

Hit-n-Run

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There is no official set standard for arbitration salaries. The player and team both file what they think the number should be and if they can't come to an agreement it goes before an arbitrator. The arbitrator will use the salaries of similiar type arbitration eligible players to determine the salary.

As an amateur starting point you can generally predict $3M 1st yr, $5m 2nd, $8m 3rd yr. for everyday players and SP. Injured players, backups, and relievers can make considerably less. Closers usually make more than setup, etc. relievers. The more a player is better than his average peer the more he's awarded and the opposite is true for below average players. Top tier players can expect $10M+ by the 3rd year.
 
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Hit-n-Run

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The Reds MLB page depth chart list Disco, Bailey, Castillo, Romano, and Finnegan at the top of the rotation. If all are healthy and ready to go is that Price's top five?

Health and Bryan Price are the two great unknown factors that make it nearly impossible to predict all five spots. Then there's always the possibilty of signing some reject to pitch 5 or six games before imploding.

Last season Bryan Price liked Rookie Davis from the beginning of ST and all the way to the OD rotation. I still don't understand what Price saw in Rookie that leap frogged him over better options.
 

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Last season Bryan Price liked Rookie Davis from the beginning of ST and all the way to the OD rotation. I still don't understand what Price saw in Rookie that leap frogged him over better options.

I always thought that came from the front office, do to the fact they gave Chapman away, and they were trying to give him every chance to succeed as possible... In my opinion, they would have done better just letting him go at the end of the season and getting a draft pick for him. I think we have seen Rookies best and it wasn't much.
 

Hit-n-Run

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That is a distinct possibility Eburg.

But if Price is merely a puppet this organization is in big trouble. That would mean the club is flawed from the top down and they're not going to fire the puppet master when he's heir to the throne.
 

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Depth chart has to include somebody and those 5 are the logical picks.
First off, neither Finny nor Disco can give them 120 innings. Disco might get 10 starts before June.
Finnegan hasn't proven he can get people out without walking 6 guys.
I think Stephenson is in the top 5, Bailey and Castillo are the others who are sure things. Romano, I like a little.
I think there's a pitcher we haven't factored in yet -- and until that trade/signing happens, we won't know. I also think Lorenzen is going to get a chance to start. There were just too many references to it last summer to make it less than logical.
A lefty? Yeah, Garrett ... but I think they might be auditioning him.
Cody Reed could go. His mechanics are a mess and until he fixes that, he's a AAA pitcher.
 

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One thing we've all learned is that all pitchers get injured at some point. It may be season ending, but more often then not it's a trip to the DL. Combine the injuries with pitch counts and a SP isn't going to approach 200 innings. The end result is teams need more starters to reach the finish line.

The Reds have plenty of guys standing in line waiting for their opportunity. Some of them will most likely start the season on the DL and others will get a rehab respite later. Either way I think they'll have enough bodies to cover the 162 game schedule. The Reds have depth at SP, but at this point it's still adjusting to the learning curve.

If this team were going to look like a contender the 1st half the pitcher I see as being vital to success is Homer. The Reds need Homer to be a stabilizing presence in the rotation.
 
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