The second half

Mahle was one hanging slider away from implosion last night but to his credit, he didn't throw that pitch.
The best part was that he didn't have to get the lucky DP ball to get out of a jam. Still, he has work to do. I think another spring training will put him on the path. As for his mechanics, that may be a work in progress.

Yeah, the bulk of this bullpen is organizational depth personified and I am concerned that the Reds will unload some roster talent for a few more pitching prospects like Keury Mella, who hasn't thrown an inning in anger in a week. Hernandez is a waste of a roster number. Chacin? Not ready to throw him out yet, but the door is ajar.


We probably agree that Winker makes this team and probably so should Ervin. As for how they fit in, the FO has to consider contracts a couple of years down the road. Schebler is a "hope" in CF with Hamilton seemingly unable to achieve the basic goal of reaching 1st base. Ervin has played there but can he do more on offense than Hamilton? Probably not and Hamilton knows it.

Jackson Stephens did a nice job in long relief today. Unfortunately the offense couldn't close the gap.

Garrett appeared to be putting together a solid outing and inexplicably had a couple two out walks followed by a double steal and Martinez made him pay. Didn't retire a batter in the fifth after a walk and a 2-run HR sent him to the shower early.

Overall I like the mix of outfielders- Duvall, Schebler. Hamilton, Winker, Ervin. They all have deficiencies, but each have a couple skill sets that can help this team win.

In terms of team control, only Hamilton is making more than league minimum with two years remaining. Duvall 4, Schebler 5, Winker and Ervin 6 years.

IMO,
Duvall and Schebler have power accompanied with some swing and miss. Neither hit for average or walk much. Duvall plays an above average LF and Schebler plays adequate defense. Schebler runs well for a big guy, but not enough to be an everyday CF.

Hamilton is the only true CF in the mix. We all know the offensive deficiencies and being second year arbitration eligible will increase his cost. I think the Reds value his defense and he'll continue to play when healthy.

Winker is the best pure hitter in the group and easily the highest OBP. He's as slow as molasses and is no more than average defensively.

Ervin hasn't hit for average in the minors, but has a nice blend of speed and power with a good eye at the plate. He's the second best defensive option in CF. Wouldn't steal as many bases as BH, but has more power. If he hits .250 plus, he'll provide a higher OBP than everyone in the mix other than Winker.

For various reasons I wouldn't have any of their names etched in stone on the lineup card.

Duvall doesn't appear to be able to play a full season. Back to back second half swoons makes me think he needs more time off throughout the season or simply may not tolerate playing the long season. If his diabetes is the culprit, it's a shame because I think the guy is better than his season totals end up representing.

RF is where I may differ from some people. It's more personal preference than anything else. If Winker hits and has a superior OBP with adequate power, he's in my lineup most days. With injuries and rotating days off, there's plenty of opportunity for Schebler to get AB's. Winker seems to be injury prone since being drafted.

Ervin would be PH, PR, spot start, defensive replacement, double swith guy. Hamilton being injury prone provides playing time for Ervin and Schebler in CF.

Duvall, Hamilton, and Winker would be number one on my depth chart at their position.

The Reds were officially eliminated yesterday. And I had such high hopes

The Reds do have some bright spots on this team. Unfortunately few of them are pitching. I think Garrett is a few years away, before he is ready to join the rotation. Maybe the bullpen could be in his future. At least for a while

Hit-n-Run said:

Duvall doesn't appear to be able to play a full season. Back to back second half swoons makes me think he needs more time off throughout the season or simply may not tolerate playing the long season. If his diabetes is the culprit, it's a shame because I think the guy is better than his season totals end up representing

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Maybe Duvall would do well in a platoon rule, at least some of the time.

I gotta think Duvall's problems are linked to his personal health.
There were ways to reduce that stress but Price apparently didn't value that option.
It's not that hard to evaluate strength matchups for hitters and take advantage of that over 162. Can't always dodge the bullet but there is no reason to not sit a guy against pitchers he can't hit. Scooter should never play against lefties. Shebler can't hit righthanders. Of course, O'Neill had to learn to hit lefties. I think Schebs will only get better, with his average looking more like Bruce has managed since leaving the Reds.
Hamilton will always drag this offense down but there is math that suggests his strengths tend to mitigate his lack of OBP, so that will have to play out.
I can see a trade this fall but the contract control the Reds have on these guys could bring some serious talent into the mix.
We will need a catcher soon, I fear.

Schebler has hit LHP better than RHP this season, but last year his splits were the opposite. So it may be an anomaly rather than a trend.

It'd be better if he hit RHP. Hitters usually get 2/3 of their AB's against RHP unless they're platooning facing primarily LHP.

If that split continues you'd think he'd see less playing time versus RHP.

I don't like Hamilton's bat that much, but he does bring a lot to the table. He's a spark plug when he gets on causing things to happened that you rarely see, and his defense is as good or better than anyone. The fans really seem to like him, especially young fans. Who MLB is trying to win over. There may be a revolt if the Reds trade Billy.
On a completely different subject, that probably should be on it's own thread. But I was wondering what you guys thought of Lackey last night. He was thrown out of a game for yelling at the umpire. Just about every time I see this guy, he's screaming at an umpire. He's not the only one, but he is the worst. Yes umpires make mistakes. But this is not good for baseball.

eburg5000 said:

I don't like Hamilton's bat that much, but he does bring a lot to the table. He's a spark plug when he gets on causing things to happened that you rarely see, and his defense is as good or better than anyone. The fans really seem to like him, especially young fans. Who MLB is trying to win over. There may be a revolt if the Reds trade Billy.
On a completely different subject, that probably should be on it's own thread. But I was wondering what you guys thought of Lackey last night. He was thrown out of a game for yelling at the umpire. Just about every time I see this guy, he's screaming at an umpire. He's not the only one, but he is the worst. Yes umpires make mistakes. But this is not good for baseball.

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I think we have come to appreciate Hamilton's CF defense with Schebler playing as most CF would, but still 2 steps slower than BH.

Schebler appears to be a hitter who works on improving his game. Each time he's gone into a slump, he's eventually figured it out. I think he's a pretty smart hitter. I like his future as a .280/.350 guy with 30 HR and a fairly low K rate. His HR numbers will be because of the short porch, not because he's a HR hitter. But he could end up with 35 or 40 doubles. If he still struggles against RHP, who knows?

I saw a clip of the Lackey thing and that's basically embarrassing to the team and the whole of the game. I need to see/hear/read more before condemning anyone else.

I can't say if the Reds pitchers are figuring it out or if they caught the Parrots scraping up the remnants of the rest of their fucked up season.

The Pirates are 28th in runs scored, so yeah... They're not a strong offensive club.

But I don't want to totally devalue the Reds pitching performance. We've seen plenty of outings where the Reds rookies have imploded without the opposing offense having to do much more than let the umpire direct traffic towards first base.

Romano's 97 pitch, 8 shutout innings with zero walks performance was impressive. Stephenson's 1 hit through 6 would have been better if he didn't walk three.

They have the Cardinals, Brewers, Red Sox, and Cubs to close out the season. I'd like to see the team play .500 through that stretch with the SP holding their own with quality starts.

For sure, the staff will be challenged a bit by the Cubs and Red Sox. The Cubs are on a roll now. Boston is just in the better league and we are wont to pretend that's not true. St. Louis probably is screwed so Matheny might play scrub ball at least once this week. Price insists he will be representative on the field. Gotta like that. I think the Reds believe they are good enough to win for the moment with the prospect of a long losing streak less of a concern with only 12 left. They would like to catch the Parrots. I see a 4-8 finish at worst, maybe 5-7. Not better.

With innings limits shutting down first Castillo and now Mahle, we're back to the 2nd tier of SP rookies. The Cards series will feature Jackson Stephens, Rookie Davis, and Homer Bailey.

Stephens has done a nice job in his 3 bullpen appearances earning a second look. He made one start earlier in the season with mixed results.

Rookie Davis is also getting a second or third look. He hasn't done much to deserve it. He's been batting practice in most appearances including his one September outing. I think running him out there says two things. The Reds are running out of qualified candidates and Bryan Price likes the kid.

Homer usually doesn't fare well against the Cardinals. Could be a disappointing series coming off series sweep of the Pirates.

The Reds have followed up a winning August with a 9-7 start to September. They may be running out of the needed ammunition to continue their winning ways.

There are a lot of pitchers in the pen who can go an inning against the Cardinals so not all of them will suck, I think.

A year ago, there were 5 spots and 5 candidates. When one failed, they had to sign Marquis or Simon. Now, there may be real options. Plus, I think the FO can deal from strength for finding a veteran starter. feldman could re-sign with incentives but the knee is worrisome.

I am still 2019 on this outfit, not 2018.

I would like to see the Reds get 70+ wins. That might be hoping for a little to much. I think they had 68 last year. with 71 wins if they get it. It would still not be much improvement. The starting pitching really sucked this year.

The team ERA is around 5.19, And I think that is down from what it was in the 1st half. In 2016 it was 4. 91.

eburg5000 said:

I would like to see the Reds get 70+ wins. That might be hoping for a little to much. I think they had 68 last year. with 71 wins if they get it. It would still not be much improvement. The starting pitching really sucked this year.

The team ERA is around 5.19, And I think that is down from what it was in the 1st half. In 2016 it was 4. 91.

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ERAs are going to be a notch higher in a homer-friendly ballpark with pitchers who haven't learned to throw ground balls. All the same, Cueto had a low ERA in GABP so I know it can be done. Other pitchers have kept the ball in the park.

I think the changes came when the light came on about Cingrani and Blake Wood, neither of whom should be in a big-league bullpen. The bullpen has struggled because of too much work but when you get relievers who give up 15 total bases in a third of an inning, that's murder.

I think 70 is likely, which really isn't fish or fowl at this point. They can catch the Parrots, and that will have to do.

Mathey managed like he was trying to win last night. Price managed like it was March in Goodyear Arizona. Guess which team won?

I understand the Cardinals and Reds are in two different modes at the moment, but it's frustrating to watch the home team give games away to the Cardinals of all teams.

Eburg would like to see 70 wins. I'd like to see the Reds win the season series over St. Louis and put the final nail in their coffin. John would like to catch the Parrots.

We're not asking for much as die hard Reds fans. Can we get a little help from the dugout?

Starting sub-par minor league pitchers isn't going to help. I always liked Adleman, but he's not fooling anyone anymore.

Except for Lorenzen and possibly Peralta, Price ran out there the classic definition of the Louisville Bats pitching staff last night. That game was winnable.
Thought it was bizarre that Kivvies got 10 chances at 3B in the second game he ever played there.