Break down your receivers

Who is your X? The go-to and split end, your Z, the quick speedy player, and Y, the slot.

Brees#1 said:

Who is your X? The go-to and split end, your Z, the quick speedy player, and Y, the slot.

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They all move around and are interchangeable as far as positions are concerned would be the first thing I'd say; disguises the offense better that way.

The X is predominantly Chris Conley. He was a raw product out of Georgia and that has been the case in the NFL thus far, though there has been improvement along the way and I don't think the Chiefs are giving up on him at all. Truthfully I think his skill set downfield is grossly underused by a QB like Smith. I don't think it's an accident his best games were when there was remotely competent passing downfield; while also having a vice grip on the football which makes him useful in 3rd down passing situations with some fairly memorable plays in this situation in particular against the Chargers, Saints, and Steelers. Oakland at home really is more along the lines of what I hope to see out of him.

Physically- he tests out very similarly like a Julio Jones but doesn't really play much like him and is pretty rough around the edges for the most part in his routes. With that being said, he has beaten some pretty good corners at times with savvy moves this past season (a vet pushoff against Jalen Ramsey comes to mine where he got some cheap and needed yardage) which gave him some niche value. Right now he's more of a quality #3 receiver or a bottomend #2, but I have hope he can progress beyond that if he continues to learn and progress as WR. Physically there's almost nothing wrong with him; he's plenty fast and strong, and has strong hands to boot.

One thing I will say is if he doesn't progress the WR out of Michigan may give him a run for his money- just a hunch.

Go-to is probably a toss-up at the moment between Hill and Maclin. Hill was the top target in the entire league as a percentage of his routes, and when Smith did go downfield- it was usually to Hill. Maclin was also heavily featured in 2015. It's entirely possible there is no go-to WR but a 'democratic' distribution of targets. I tend to think Hill is by far the most likely to take over the target share here as he's already shown he can break games from the position whereas Maclin is merely good and Conley serviceable.

Based on experience, I'd almost have to assume the Z, and free release that comes with it, is going to be Jeremy Maclin primarily.

Maclin while not a true speedster like Hill or a straightline tank like Conley is nonetheless fast, and unlike the other two receivers I mentioned is clinical in his routerunning- and last year aside surehanded- which leads to quite a few openings. I don't feel Smith takes advantage of them enough and I think Maclin gets somewhat of a bad rap lately for that. Nonetheless, Maclin is a quality receiver, just not a true top of the line #1 in real life or a big time fantasy asset. With the WR picture becoming more and more crowded with an elite TE already in the picture, I wouldn't get too excited about Maclin in fantasy in any circumstance.

Hill is probably the guy that has the best chance to alter the entire complexion of the offense. Alex seems to be comfortable throwing to him oddly when he is able to see him (or hasn't given up on the play) and on a yard per route basis was pretty devastating with a yards per route rating resembling top of the line receivers such as Julio Jones; SSS alert, but it's not totally crazy to think he can be great with how gifted he is. Not only does he run a 4.24, but he has loose hips and is quick- an impossibly rare trifecta for a WR. Outside of size I am not sure there's anything Hill lacks physically. His route running and knowledge of the offense are suspect given how often he was kept on the bench (barely was over 40% of snaps on offense) but the routes he did run were mostly fine from what I can tell.

Hill might simultaneously be the fastest and quickest man in the NFL right now. That's a very scary combo if it is harnessed. For giggles he can lineup in the backfield and run routes or carry the ball which in it of itself can be useful. Hill put up a bit over 200 DYARDs according to FO, and a huge percentage of that was actually his rushing which teams really struggled with regardless of if it was a counter, sweep, or reverse. Even as a decoy it's impossible to ignore Hill whereas De'Anthony Thomas, AJ Jenkins, and co didn't cause as much distress in my opinion.

The Y is not uncommonly Travis Kelce actually, but in 3 WR sets it'd usually be Hill I think. Maybe this changes and we see more of a Demarcus Robinson presence here (replacing most of the Albert Wilson snaps) and Hill moves to the Z or X instead, who knows for sure.

TLDR:

Maclin: Z
Conley: X
Hill: Y

Saw this today...


Really bizarre to see a game where the WR's run around open and Smith just won't go for that option. Truth be told he still hit Kelce here, but the missed shots to Maclin and Hill in this game are really baffling.

There is A Moose at 3rd said:

Saw this today...


Really bizarre to see a game where the WR's run around open and Smith just won't go for that option. Truth be told he still hit Kelce here, but the missed shots to Maclin and Hill in this game are really baffling.

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These types of misses are the very reason that the Chiefs thought they needed to trade up for Mahomes. Smith isn't a bad QB but he just has become so risk averse that he won't pull the trigger to get some big plays. Yes this one worked out because Kelce made a nice move but against the better teams you have to take some chances and trust your guys to go make a play.

I've actually been saying that Siemian's ceiling is that of Alex Smith. Smart QB, accurate, has some ability to run with the ball, and so on but just won't pull the trigger to make the big play.

cdumler7 said:

These types of misses are the very reason that the Chiefs thought they needed to trade up for Mahomes. Smith isn't a bad QB but he just has become so risk averse that he won't pull the trigger to get some big plays.

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Yeah, I can put up a compilation of plays like this for every QB but this is pretty much the norm for Smith which is kind of hellish on Andy Reid when calling plays in a sense. Certainly not bad- but it can't be a pleasant feeling trying to call playoff games knowing you have a hand tied behind your back with the QB situation. Saw plenty try to go after Reid- but I can't really get too frustrated about the playcalling when I see this kind of stuff being missed during the game routinely. If it were all drops downfield by Kelce I'd have more sympathy but this is getting tiresome.

Specific route combination in a trips formation on the right side of the field. 6'3 WR over 200 pounds. Big hands. Should be a layup when he's that wide open for a QB against zone. I'm pretty confident if the Steelers gave that up to Mahomes (or just a more aggressive QB in general) that's a big gain to Conley and maybe even a touchdown if it's well placed.

cdumler7 said:

I've actually been saying that Siemian's ceiling is that of Alex Smith. Smart QB, accurate, has some ability to run with the ball, and so on but just won't pull the trigger to make the big play.

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Sounds about right. I've seen a lot of people try to claim he's maxed out ala Hoyer and I can't say I really agree with that the more I rewatch. Still room where he could reasonably grow as a passer, imo. Has work to do as a QB, but can be a passable starter so long as he's cheap; needs to make progress though. The Broncos had the #1 DVOA defense and missed the playoffs last year, the QB's (or more broadly offenses) accompanying Siemian on that list are not pretty.

And there's some early OTA chatter about Demarcus Robinson...



No but really, I am pretty done with the Albert Wilson stuff at this point.

Unpossible to unetch from the mind.