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Jags chances to win

What is the Jaguars chances to beat Pittsburgh again this week?

  • 90% - Bortles will play well and the Jags D is still the Jags D.

    Votes: 2 5.0%
  • 75% - They have to have Bortles play well, but I think that he will.

    Votes: 2 5.0%
  • 50% - If Bortles just doesn't play bad then they'll win.

    Votes: 12 30.0%
  • 25% - Bortles has to play good to have a chance and that ain't gonna happen.

    Votes: 17 42.5%
  • 10% - Doesn't even matter how Bortles does, they just can't win again.

    Votes: 7 17.5%

  • Total voters
    40
  • Poll closed .

Trudem

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10th overall. Much better than Buffalo's, which was 29th overall in the regular season.

They held Fournette to 3 YPC until he broke the 90 yard TD at the 2 minute warning the last time they played.
No Shazier and the Jags are fin with Fournette being a volume runner because it keeps the ball out of Bortles's bad decision making hands lol
 

Trudem

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I think AB is more important @ New England, cause Ramsey is really really great, and even a healthy AB probably would get limited somewhat

I think the key will be shutting down Fournette, making sure the Jags finish in the 10-17 point range, cause I definitely think the Steelers find 20 points in this game
depending on whether I think it takes 24 points to win.
 

Mike A. S.

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Because I don't think Tomlin is an idiot.

Jacksonville scored three points without the aid of turnovers. All their TDs came on or after one of their five picks of Rochambeau. I don't believe for one second that Pittsburgh is going to have Richelieu throw the ball 55 times this week. They win fairly easily if they don't put Rorschach in that situation.
But all of what you said still doesn't add up to ZERO chances of Jacksonville winning. I don't think there is ever a ZERO percent chance of a team with the #1 defense in the league winning any particular game.
 

Dr. Strangelove

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it all hinges on AB and how healthy he is IMO. if hes a decoy, pitts in trouble.

if AB is at least 75% the steelers will roll. win by 14+. if he is just out there for show, its gonna be very close.
While I think AB is an important part of the Steelers team, I think this game hinges more on Bell running early and making the Jags cheat up into the box to defend the run and giving the pass game more options for quick hitters and yac. To the TE and those other receivers as well as Brown. And Bell leaking out of the backfield as an outlet for Ben. There are ways to beat this D but dropbacks and throws downfield outside the numbers ain't it, imo. At least, not until you make those pro bowl corners try to cheat up to the line.
 

Trudem

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But all of what you said still doesn't add up to ZERO chances of Jacksonville winning. I don't think there is ever a ZERO percent chance of a team with the #1 defense in the league winning any particular game.
You local to Jax area?
 

packerzrule

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Every one also believed that there was no way the Chiefs were going to lose to the Titans.

Jags D is legit and Fournette is a stud. Good D and running game is a combination that can beat any team on any given day
 

Guy Incognito

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But all of what you said still doesn't add up to ZERO chances of Jacksonville winning. I don't think there is ever a ZERO percent chance of a team with the #1 defense in the league winning any particular game.
Jacksonville has the best passing defense, 21st against the run.

Don't think that Pittsburgh is gameplanning to only give Bell 15 rushes this time. The only team that rushed for less against Jacksonville than Pittsburgh did was Cleveland, for 50 yards.

No way Pittsburgh looks at the game film from their first game and says, "Oh yeah, that's the way to beat them".
 

rmilia1

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Anytime you've got a great D you've got a shot
 

Mike A. S.

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Jacksonville has the best passing defense, 21st against the run.

Don't think that Pittsburgh is gameplanning to only give Bell 15 rushes this time. The only team that rushed for less against Jacksonville than Pittsburgh did was Cleveland, for 50 yards.

No way Pittsburgh looks at the game film from their first game and says, "Oh yeah, that's the way to beat them".
Again...still can't be ZERO percent chance of winning. That's all I'm saying. I've agreed since the beginning that Pittsburgh should and probably will win. But Jacksonville definitely has a chance.
 

Guy Incognito

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Again...still can't be ZERO percent chance of winning. That's all I'm saying. I've agreed since the beginning that Pittsburgh should and probably will win. But Jacksonville definitely has a chance.
It's less than 10%, IMO.

Any team naturally has a chance, but Jacksonville's chances are only slightly better than Tennessee's, which are both much closer to 0 than 10.
 

shopson67

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I would vote 25-50% simply because of that defense but won't vote in this because of the rationale explaining the percentage in the poll.
I think Bortles will be his awful self and that's a given. I'm not sure about Fournette. He didn't look all that good in the WC game to me. Not sure if it's the "rookie wall" or just that the Bills D really shut him down but without him rushing for 125+ yds and giving the D some rest, they will be in a world of trouble.
Imo. the only real shot the Jags have is a complete failure by Pitt and Ben (which I don't see happening twice) or the Jags D is just a monster like the 85-86 Bears or 00 Ravens and they score double digit points or at least, give the offense short fields.

Fournette was only average all season (3.9 ypc). He had some highlights, but they were balanced with some mediocre play. He does get the goal line chances though.
 

Guy Incognito

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It's less than 10%, IMO.

Any team naturally has a chance, but Jacksonville's chances are only slightly better than Tennessee's, which are both much closer to 0 than 10.
I would further like to add that a team that beat a non-division opponent in their building during the regular season is 8-13 in when going to play that team in their building. Not bad on the surface, but if you take out the six times that the visiting team was favored by Vegas (which includes the last time Jacksonville did this in Pittsburgh, road favorites went 4-2 and lost the other 2 games in OT), you're looking at teams being 4-11 when going on the road as Vegas dogs. Pretty steep odds.
 

BottleWalk

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25% is about right.

If they win then their chance of beating the Pats is less than 3% tho imo......
 

BottleWalk

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The people who think it is JUST about bortles don't understand football too well. Bortles playing at 100% is still only about 40% of ben. Apart from Fournette, the jags offensive talent is less than half that of what pittsburgh has. The jags are also totally inexperienced, have Doug Marrone as head coach (lol!) and even their defense can be beaten as Jimmy G and Russell Wilson showed.

You can't just say the whole thing hinges on bortles. That is an oversimplification that you hear from talking heads on sports media because they don't know enough about the teams to talk about anyone other than qbs.

The way the jags win this game is if the steelrs shit the bed on offense like they did the first time. That's it. The jags have no chance of beating the steelers "straight up" and thus they need ben to throw multiple picks and they need their front seven to shut down Leveon Bell. If the steelers don't turn it over more than once or twice, even if they get stopped a few times, they win the game by at least ten.

That is the path. The only path. For that reason this poll is silly because to claim bortles is the only factor is ridiculous- he can't play well enough to win the game on his own because he's not that good even when he doesn't cock up.
 

Mike A. S.

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The people who think it is JUST about bortles don't understand football too well. Bortles playing at 100% is still only about 40% of ben. Apart from Fournette, the jags offensive talent is less than half that of what pittsburgh has. The jags are also totally inexperienced, have Doug Marrone as head coach (lol!) and even their defense can be beaten as Jimmy G and Russell Wilson showed.

You can't just say the whole thing hinges on bortles. That is an oversimplification that you hear from talking heads on sports media because they don't know enough about the teams to talk about anyone other than qbs.

The way the jags win this game is if the steelrs shit the bed on offense like they did the first time. That's it. The jags have no chance of beating the steelers "straight up" and thus they need ben to throw multiple picks and they need their front seven to shut down Leveon Bell. If the steelers don't turn it over more than once or twice, even if they get stopped a few times, they win the game by at least ten.

That is the path. The only path. For that reason this poll is silly because to claim bortles is the only factor is ridiculous- he can't play well enough to win the game on his own because he's not that good even when he doesn't cock up.
I think the people that assume it's just on Bortles (like myself for example) are saying so on the assumption that everything else plays out as can be reasonably assumed. For example, obviously it's not literally just on Bortles because he could be great but the receivers could drop all the balls or the Jags defense could play terrible. But assuming the Jags receivers catch most of what is catchable and that the Jags defense plays at least close to how they have all year and other things that are reasonable to assume then yeah, I think at that point it is pretty much just about how well Bortles plays.
 

BottleWalk

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I think the people that assume it's just on Bortles (like myself for example) are saying so on the assumption that everything else plays out as can be reasonably assumed. For example, obviously it's not literally just on Bortles because he could be great but the receivers could drop all the balls or the Jags defense could play terrible. But assuming the Jags receivers catch most of what is catchable and that the Jags defense plays at least close to how they have all year and other things that are reasonable to assume then yeah, I think at that point it is pretty much just about how well Bortles plays.
No, the thing that determines who wins this game is the number of points the steelers score compared to how many you score. If the steelers score more than about 24 points, you lose. Period, does not matter how well bortles plays. Your offense will not score four touchdowns (defense might score one though, another reason why the steelers offense vs your defense is the more important battle in this game) no matter what and that is even IF bortles has his best game of the season.

It is not a "reasonable assumption" that you will hold them under 24 points, so why not talk about that? This isn't only about Blake Bortles and making it out to be just about Bortles is insane imo...
 

Mike A. S.

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No, the thing that determines who wins this game is the number of points the steelers score compared to how many you score. If the steelers score more than about 24 points, you lose. Period, does not matter how well bortles plays. Your offense will not score four touchdowns (defense might score one though, another reason why the steelers offense vs your defense is the more important battle in this game) no matter what and that is even IF bortles has his best game of the season.

It is not a "reasonable assumption" that you will hold them under 24 points, so why not talk about that? This isn't only about Blake Bortles and making it out to be just about Bortles is insane imo...
When did I say it was a "reasonable assumption" that they'd hold them under 24 points exactly? And how is it impossible for Jacksonville to score 25+ points against them now even though they scored 30 on them earlier this year? And scored 30+ six times this year? Plus multiple other high-20's games. And I hate to give a fellow Georgia fan a facepalm but acting like I really thought Bortles was more important than the actual score of the game really deserved a facepalm.
 

BottleWalk

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When did I say it was a "reasonable assumption" that they'd hold them under 24 points exactly? And how is it impossible for Jacksonville to score 25+ points against them now even though they scored 30 on them earlier this year? And scored 30+ six times this year? Plus multiple other high-20's games. And I hate to give a fellow Georgia fan a facepalm but acting like I really thought Bortles was more important than the actual score of the game really deserved a facepalm.
Lord... When the jags played the steelers earlier this season they scored 30 points. Almost HALF of that, two touchdowns' worth, was defensive touchdowns. That will almost assuredly not happen again (although it's your best chance). Furthermore, the steelers, despite playing down to their competition in the regular season in some games, still finished with one of the best statistical defenses overall in the nfl.

If you actually believe that the Jags score 24 or more points without a defensive or special teams TD (or without the steelers turning it over in their own end to help them out) then you must be the only person in the world who thinks that and that includes the rest of your "fanbase" (were there even any before this year anyway lol!).

I don't know how to make this easier for you to understand: if both offenses have what they would consider "good" games, the steelers win 95 times out of 100. That means that in order for you to step ahead you not only need your kind of challenged qb not to throw to the other team, but you also need the steelers offensive stars to have an off-game. If the steelers offense does not have a major off-game again, you will lose.

I also have to say that I haven't been here too long but I can't imagine there are too many other people around here who take their handing out of virtual "facepalms" as seriously as you do lol!
 

soxfan1468927

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Lord... When the jags played the steelers earlier this season they scored 30 points. Almost HALF of that, two touchdowns' worth, was defensive touchdowns. That will almost assuredly not happen again (although it's your best chance). Furthermore, the steelers, despite playing down to their competition in the regular season in some games, still finished with one of the best statistical defenses overall in the nfl.

If you actually believe that the Jags score 24 or more points without a defensive or special teams TD (or without the steelers turning it over in their own end to help them out) then you must be the only person in the world who thinks that and that includes the rest of your "fanbase" (were there even any before this year anyway lol!).

I don't know how to make this easier for you to understand: if both offenses have what they would consider "good" games, the steelers win 95 times out of 100. That means that in order for you to step ahead you not only need your kind of challenged qb not to throw to the other team, but you also need the steelers offensive stars to have an off-game. If the steelers offense does not have a major off-game again, you will lose.

I also have to say that I haven't been here too long but I can't imagine there are too many other people around here who take their handing out of virtual "facepalms" as seriously as you do lol!
In his defense, he was here before this season started
 
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