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Cave_Johnson
R.I.P. Bob Saget
What a clever title. But I know what you're thinking, and no I'm not shit talking these guys or taking this game lightly. I root for Idaho. I can't do that. In fact, if you believe in the transitive properly of college football, both Idaho and Sacramento State beat Montana State by 3 points last season. So logically last year these two teams would have played to a 10 overtime draw or something. Right?
Okay, the transitive property doesn't work in college football. But consider Idaho's last 5 games against FCS competition.
2010 vs. North Dakota 45-0 W - Pretty good
2011 vs. North Dakota 44-14 W - Alright, nice
2012 vs. EWU 20-3 L - Oh fuck, that's not good. To be fair Idaho was playing with a third string walk-on QB this game, but shit. 3 points? WTF?
2015 vs. Wofford 41-38 W - Too close for comfort
2016 vs. Montana State 20-17 W - Way too close for comfort
So two blowouts against a school transitioning to FCS, a loss to an admittedly very good EWU team, and two almost-losses to schools that were bad that year. And one of those almost-losses came last year when the Vandals won 9 games at the FBS level. That's not very encouraging.
Nah, man. I ain't taking Sac St. lightly here. They've got a somewhat recent upset under their belt. They beat Oregon State in Corvallis in 2011 and then only won 3 other games the rest of that year. That has no relevance to the game on Thursday, but it just goes to show that even an FCS team that is projected to be bad can catch somebody napping.
So do I think Sac State can realistically win this game? Well, I think they have a better shot than Idaho has had against some of the P5 schools they've been smacked around by in recent year. Those games had a tendency to get ugly fast. But on paper Idaho should win this game with no problem. And usually if something is true on paper, it's also true in practice.
So let's talk about the Hornets. Sacramento State was picked to finish 12th in the Big Sky over only.....guess who? No really. There's only one obvious answer.
That's right, the Culinary Academy of Idaho in Pocatello.
So that's not great news for the Hornets right off the bat. They're only supposed to be better than Idaho State. What about last year though? Well, I told you Sac St. beat Montana State but they only won one other game: A 7 point victory over Portland State. To make matters worse they actually lost to DII Western Oregon in their season opener. Eeek.
What about returning starters? Well...their starting QB from last season transferred to North Dakota at the beginning of the year. Sac St's O-line giving up 36 sacks may have had something to do with that.The Hornets also lose roughly 40% of their total offensive production from last season due to RBs Jordan Robinson and Demetrius Warren graduating. They seem to be looking to FBS transfers to fill these roles.
Junior Kevin Thompson (from UNLV) and senior Kolney Cassel (SMU) were competing for the starting job at QB but it appears as if injuries have given the job to Thompson by default. Graduate transfer Joseph Ajeigb from Duke will look to fill the void at RB, however he managed only 319 yards and one TD last season for the Blue Devils.
Isiah Hennie leads what could be a talented receiving group, but if the O-line doesn't improve and QB play isn't there they won't matter much.
On defense Sac St. gave up 40 ppg and 526 ypg last season, good for 12th and 13th in the Big Sky respectively. They also caused few turnovers and were often gashed by big plays. The one bright spot for the defense is preseason all-conference DE Ben Sorensen. We'll see if he can make some plays against a young Idaho O-line.
Okay, so this shouldn't be much of a contest when you look into how badly the Hornets have struggled. That said, I have a really hard time thinking Petrino is going to allow this Idaho team to look past this game or play to the level of their competition, so I do expect Idaho to come out all guns blazing. Ideally they have a few strong drives and can salt away the rest of the game pounding the rock behind Idaho's biggest advantage in this game, the O-line.
Don't get cute, use your athletes, and play your game. That's what Idaho needs to do here. I'm hoping for a blowout and for some younger guys to get some game experience before the measuring stick contest against UNLV. Honestly, Idaho is in trouble if they can't win this game by three scores or more.
Prediction: Idaho comes out strong and finishes the game running the ball down Sac State's throat. The Hornets grab a garbage time TD.
Final Score:
Idaho 38
Sac St. 10
I'll be in the dome on Thursday.
Go Vandals.
Okay, the transitive property doesn't work in college football. But consider Idaho's last 5 games against FCS competition.
2010 vs. North Dakota 45-0 W - Pretty good
2011 vs. North Dakota 44-14 W - Alright, nice
2012 vs. EWU 20-3 L - Oh fuck, that's not good. To be fair Idaho was playing with a third string walk-on QB this game, but shit. 3 points? WTF?
2015 vs. Wofford 41-38 W - Too close for comfort
2016 vs. Montana State 20-17 W - Way too close for comfort
So two blowouts against a school transitioning to FCS, a loss to an admittedly very good EWU team, and two almost-losses to schools that were bad that year. And one of those almost-losses came last year when the Vandals won 9 games at the FBS level. That's not very encouraging.
Nah, man. I ain't taking Sac St. lightly here. They've got a somewhat recent upset under their belt. They beat Oregon State in Corvallis in 2011 and then only won 3 other games the rest of that year. That has no relevance to the game on Thursday, but it just goes to show that even an FCS team that is projected to be bad can catch somebody napping.
So do I think Sac State can realistically win this game? Well, I think they have a better shot than Idaho has had against some of the P5 schools they've been smacked around by in recent year. Those games had a tendency to get ugly fast. But on paper Idaho should win this game with no problem. And usually if something is true on paper, it's also true in practice.
So let's talk about the Hornets. Sacramento State was picked to finish 12th in the Big Sky over only.....guess who? No really. There's only one obvious answer.
That's right, the Culinary Academy of Idaho in Pocatello.
So that's not great news for the Hornets right off the bat. They're only supposed to be better than Idaho State. What about last year though? Well, I told you Sac St. beat Montana State but they only won one other game: A 7 point victory over Portland State. To make matters worse they actually lost to DII Western Oregon in their season opener. Eeek.
What about returning starters? Well...their starting QB from last season transferred to North Dakota at the beginning of the year. Sac St's O-line giving up 36 sacks may have had something to do with that.The Hornets also lose roughly 40% of their total offensive production from last season due to RBs Jordan Robinson and Demetrius Warren graduating. They seem to be looking to FBS transfers to fill these roles.
Junior Kevin Thompson (from UNLV) and senior Kolney Cassel (SMU) were competing for the starting job at QB but it appears as if injuries have given the job to Thompson by default. Graduate transfer Joseph Ajeigb from Duke will look to fill the void at RB, however he managed only 319 yards and one TD last season for the Blue Devils.
Isiah Hennie leads what could be a talented receiving group, but if the O-line doesn't improve and QB play isn't there they won't matter much.
On defense Sac St. gave up 40 ppg and 526 ypg last season, good for 12th and 13th in the Big Sky respectively. They also caused few turnovers and were often gashed by big plays. The one bright spot for the defense is preseason all-conference DE Ben Sorensen. We'll see if he can make some plays against a young Idaho O-line.
Okay, so this shouldn't be much of a contest when you look into how badly the Hornets have struggled. That said, I have a really hard time thinking Petrino is going to allow this Idaho team to look past this game or play to the level of their competition, so I do expect Idaho to come out all guns blazing. Ideally they have a few strong drives and can salt away the rest of the game pounding the rock behind Idaho's biggest advantage in this game, the O-line.
Don't get cute, use your athletes, and play your game. That's what Idaho needs to do here. I'm hoping for a blowout and for some younger guys to get some game experience before the measuring stick contest against UNLV. Honestly, Idaho is in trouble if they can't win this game by three scores or more.
Prediction: Idaho comes out strong and finishes the game running the ball down Sac State's throat. The Hornets grab a garbage time TD.
Final Score:
Idaho 38
Sac St. 10
I'll be in the dome on Thursday.
Go Vandals.